United States elections 2024

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Trump Knows He's In Trouble​

 

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RFK Jr. Claims Trump Asked Him to Serve as VP #shorts

 

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‘A lot of scepticism’ among US voters over Bidenomics​

 

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Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Trump loses slim lead over Biden as 1st criminal trial gets underway

Asked which candidate they would vote for “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months,” just 36% of voters now say the former president — fewer than ever before.

www.yahoo.com

Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Trump loses slim lead over Biden as 1st criminal trial gets underway​

The presumptive Republican and Democratic nominees are now tied at 44% heading into the general election.​

Andrew Romano
·National Correspondent
Wed, April 17, 2024 at 12:04 PM EDT·4 min read
7.9k

Photo illustration: Yahoo News; photos: Matt Rourke/AP, Wilfredo Lee/AP

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Key takeaways from

• Former President Donald Trump and President Biden are tied at 44% each in the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll, showing a significant shift from Trump's previous narrow lead.
• Despite modest improvement for Biden in national surveys since his State of the Union address, the poll reveals that Trump continues to have a large advantage over Biden on perceptions of age and fitness for the presidency.
• A majority of Americans believe economic conditions are getting worse, with concerns about inflation rising, potentially impacting the political landscape as the 2024 election approaches.

Are these AI-created takeaways helpful?

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that former President Donald Trump’s slim polling edge over President Biden has evaporated as the first of Trump’s four criminal trials finally gets underway this week — leaving the two parties’ presumptive 2024 nominees tied at 44% apiece heading into the general election.
Last month, Trump narrowly led Biden 46% to 44% among registered voters. At the end of January, Trump was ahead 45% to 44%. Both of these results were within the poll’s margin of error — meaning that, statistically speaking, Trump and Biden have been on roughly equal terms for some time.
Still, the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll’s tightening margin reflects a larger trend showing modest improvement for Biden in national surveys conducted since his State of the Union address in March.

It may also underscore the challenge ahead for Trump — a candidate who has never won more than 47% of the national popular vote — in growing his support at a time when he could become the first convicted felon in U.S. history to lead a major party’s presidential ticket.

Asked which candidate they would vote for “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months,” just 36% of voters now say the former president — down from 40% in March, and fewer than ever before.

Biden’s backing ticks up 1 point in that scenario, to 45%, giving him a 9-point advantage.

To put that hypothetical shift in perspective, large majorities of Americans consider each of the major charges against Trump — “falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to a porn star” (57%); “taking highly classified documents from the White House and obstructing efforts to retrieve them” (69%); “attempting to obstruct the certification of a presidential election” (69%); and “conspiring to overturn the results of a presidential election” (73%) — to be “serious crimes.”

And those numbers have been rising.

Biden remains vulnerable on age and the economy​

The new Yahoo News/YouGov survey of 1,746 U.S. adults, which was conducted from April 11 to April 15, still shows big vulnerabilities for Biden.

Just 40% of Americans approve of the job he’s been doing as president, for instance, while 54% disapprove — statistically unchanged from previous surveys. No other modern president — including Trump — has registered such a low approval rating at this stage of his presidency.

Trump also continues to enjoy a large advantage over Biden on perceptions of age and fitness for the presidency. When asked about each candidate separately, more Americans say Trump accomplished “a lot” as president (39%) than say the same about Biden (28%); more also say Trump is “fit to be president” (41%) than say that about Biden (29%). Nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) say Biden, 81, is “too old for another term as president”; just 36% say Trump, 77, is too old.

The post-pandemic U.S. economy has been steadily improving, but those improvements are not helping the incumbent. Instead, a majority of Americans still believe economic conditions are getting worse (51%) — up from 46% in December — rather than getting better (21%). And while Democrats are split on the economy (with 54% rating it excellent or good and 43% rating it fair or poor), few independents (20% excellent/good, 75% fair/poor) or Republicans (15% excellent/good, 83% fair/poor) give it positive marks.

Perhaps worst of all for Biden and the Democrats is the trend line on perceived inflation. The number of Americans who say it is “getting worse” has risen 5 points since March to 61%, topping the previous high of 60% set in September 2022, while the number who say inflation is “getting better” has fallen over the same period from 17% to 14% — the lowest mark since 13% in September 2022.

In reality, the U.S. inflation rate has plummeted from 8.2.% in September 2022 to 3.5% today.

How a Trump conviction could change the race​

But the bad news for Trump is that when Americans are forced to choose the bigger problem regarding “their fitness for the presidency,” more point to Trump’s criminal charges (40%) than Biden’s age (38%). And while the share of Americans citing Biden’s age as the bigger problem is dropping (from 41% in March), the share who see Trump’s criminal charges as the bigger problem seems to be holding steady now that his legal issues are front and center.

Ultimately, a full 57% of Americans now say Trump should not be allowed to serve again if convicted of a serious crime; just 29% say he should be allowed to serve again. Last month, those numbers were 55% and 31%, respectively.

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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,746 U.S. adults interviewed online from April 11 to April 15, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to Nov. 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.6%.

 

[Yommie]

RFK Jr.: Together We Bring America Back To The People​

 

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Election is not looking good for Biden: Nick Adams | American Agenda​

 

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April 19, 2024: RFK contingent election? Plus ballot access updates.​

 

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Full Interview: Metta World Peace on RFK Jr., Mental Health & Women's Basketball​

 

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April National Poll: 3 in 4 US Voters Say Cost of Living is Rising - Emerson Polling

Trump 46%, Biden 43% A new Emerson College Polling national survey finds 46% of voters…Full Release & Results

emersoncollegepolling.com

April National Poll: 3 in 4 US Voters Say Cost of Living is Rising​

April 18th, 2024

Home Polls April National Poll: 3 in 4 US Voters Say Cost of Living is Rising

Trump 46%, Biden 43%
A new Emerson College Polling national survey finds 46% of voters support former President Donald Trump, 43% support President Joe Biden, and 12% are undecided in the November presidential election. Since Emerson’s last national poll in early April, support for Biden lowered by two points, while Trump maintained 46%. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Trump’s overall support increases to 51%, and Biden to 48%.
Seventy-five percent of voters think the cost of living in the United States is rising, 18% think it is staying the same, and 7% think the cost is easing.

“Voters who think the cost of living is rising support Trump over Biden, 56% to 32%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those who feel the cost of living is easing or staying the same support Biden over Trump, 94% to 6% and 67% to 18%.”
Analysis of voter work hours reveals distinct candidate preferences. Non-workers are evenly split: 45% support Trump, 44% Biden. Those working 30 hours or less favor Biden over Trump (52% to 37%), while those in the 30-40 hour bracket are divided (45% Biden, 43% Trump). Trump gains support among those working 40-60 hours, with increasing margins as hours increase, peaking at 80% for those working over 60 hours, compared to 7% for Biden.

On a ballot test including independent candidates, 44% support Trump, 40% Biden, 8% Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% Cornel West; 8% are undecided.

• Kennedy Jr. has the support of 13% of independent voters, 12% of voters under 30, and 9% of Black voters.

In a hypothetical ballot test for the 2024 U.S. congressional elections, a generic congressional Democrat and Republican are tied at 45%, while 11% are undecided.

• Among undecided voters in the presidential election, 31% support the Democratic congressional candidate, and 19% the Republican; 50% are undecided in the generic congressional election.

The economy is the top issue for 36% of voters, followed by immigration at 21%, threats to democracy at 10%, healthcare at 9%, abortion access at 7%, and crime at 6%.
Compared with American families in general, 44% of voters think their family income is average, while 38% think it is below average, and 18% think their family income is above average.
Kimball added: “Income perception aligns with candidate preference, with those feeling their income is far below average favoring Trump 50% to 32% and those feeling it’s far above average favoring Biden 55% to 29%.”

A plurality of voters (44%) think they are not getting an accurate picture of how the war is going in Israel and Gaza, while 25% think they are, and 31% are not sure.
“Perceptions of receiving accurate war information show a significant split,” Kimball noted. “Biden leads among those who think they are getting accurate information (53% to 36%), while Trump leads among skeptics (53% to 38%). Those unsure are divided, with 44% leaning toward Trump and 42% toward Biden.”
Forty-one percent of voters think Israel should retaliate against Iran for Iran’s missile attack, while 28% think they should not, and 31% are not sure.
“There’s a clear division in candidate preference based on opinions about Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strikes, with Trump being favored by those in favor of retaliation, 66% to 25% while those who favor no retaliation break for Biden, 67% to 23%,” Kimball said.

• There is a significant gender divide on the topic: 51% of men think Israel should retaliate compared to 32% of women who say the same. Twenty-six percent of men think they should not retaliate compared to 30% of women.

Despite ongoing discussion regarding the cost of a college education, the highest education correlates with higher incomes, with postgraduates reporting the highest income, 26% earning over $150,000.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted April 16-17, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,308, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.

 

[Yommie]

Democrats pulling out all the stops against RFK Jr.

Democrats are taking extraordinary steps to prevent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from hindering their efforts to keep the White House in November. From rallying Kennedy’s family around President Biden, to…

thehill.com

Democrats pulling out all the stops against RFK Jr.​

BY HANNA TRUDO - 04/20/24 6:00 AM ET
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Democrats are taking extraordinary steps to prevent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from hindering their efforts to keep the White House in November.
From rallying Kennedy’s family around President Biden, to dumping opposition research and holding press briefings about how he helps former President Trump, Democrats watching Kennedy qualify for more state ballots are pulling out all the stops to prevent him from hurting Biden in the fall.

“There’s no education in the second kick of the mule,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist who has advised Biden’s presidential campaigns. “In 2016, we saw the impact that third-party candidates had on the election. And we also saw potentially a fault line of not educating enough [about] what votes for those candidates could mean long term for the country.”
“We’re now feeling the results of the 2016 election in 2024,” he added.

Kennedy has made some notable decisions in recent weeks that have caught Democrats’ attention, including choosing a wealthy running mate in Nicole Shanahan and announcing he would not run on the Libertarian Party ticket.
Democrats looking to preserve Biden’s electoral coalition are concerned by his strategy. When Kennedy was hurting for money, they took solace that he may not go the distance, noting how expensive it is to petition for ballots in each state. And when he was toying with a Libertarian bid, they also optimistically hoped he’d chip into Trump’s base instead of Biden’s.
With both challenges now in the rear view, Democrats are focusing on what could come next.
“There will be a clear choice facing voters this November and the more they learn about RFK Jr, the more they will recognize that a vote for him is a vote for Donald Trump,” said Matt Corridoni, a spokesperson with the Democratic National Committee, which has now dedicated a new department to helping stop Kennedy’s White House bid.

“We’re going to make sure he’s playing by the rules and we’re going to make sure voters are educated about his extreme positions and who is propping up his spoiler candidacy,” Corridoni said.
Kennedy contemplated running as a Libertarian for much of his candidacy, giving himself the option in case things didn’t work out in the Independent lane. But on Sunday, he shot down the idea definitively, saying it’s not part of his calculations and expressing confidence he’ll be on enough ballots for a third-party November showing.
“We’re not gonna have any problems getting on the ballot ourselves so we won’t be running Libertarian,” Kennedy told ABC News this weekend.

Just a few days later, he qualified for the most consequential state yet — Michigan — bringing his battleground total up to four states, along with New Hampshire, Nevada and North Carolina. His campaign counts nine states in total on the ballot.
Democrats have started pushing back hard. Biden was seen with members of the Kennedy family this week, who banded together to back the incumbent president. While Biden doesn’t criticize Kennedy, he’s taken some not-so-subtle steps to show voters that RFK Jr. is an outlier among members of his political dynasty.
“His own family is endorsing President Biden today because they know that his ideas are dangerous and he will only help Donald Trump’s reelection,” said Rahna Epting, the executive director of MoveOn, which has led the anti-Kennedy crusade among the Democrats’ progressive wing.

As an independent, Kennedy’s supporter base is not neatly defined, but Democrats say he most likely will draw from Biden’s voters. That thinking has worried pro-Biden Democrats who see their mission this election as preserving democracy from a second Trump presidency. Kennedy’s campaign creates a wrinkle in all of that and inspired an outpouring of Democratic resources to focus on ruining his effort to get to the general election.
“You’re starting to see the various corners of the Democratic square intersect and come together at a critical time in the campaign season because it’s so important for base consolidation to happen,” Seawright said.
“A lot of people should have this notion of sitting on ignorance and shouting on substance,” he said.

Kennedy’s path now hinges on a more detailed state-by-state strategy that ballot experts say is difficult but can be done with enough time and money. He effectively took care of the financial issue by choosing a vice president with a recent history of helping fund his campaign.
The pick of Shanahan, a tech patent attorney and multimillionaire from Silicon Valley, was seen by Democrats and Kennedy allies alike as the mark of a more serious campaign with the potential to go until the fall.
This week, Shanahan poured $2 million toward Kennedy’s campaign right after he unveiled her as his running mate, furthering Democrats’ suspicions that he tapped her in part to help fund what is projected to be a very expensive bid for nationwide ballot access.

Though he denies choosing Shanahan for her money, Kennedy is nonetheless reaping the rewards. His Michigan ballot access win started his new goal of ticking off multiple states in rapid succession. “We’re going to add probably two to three states a week,” he told ABC News.
The Hill reached out to Kennedy’s campaign for comment.
The amount of Shanahan’s money, which is a point of speculation among Democrats, is seen as the most helpful contribution to his bid. While Democrats groan about an anti-establishment candidate funneling millions to fuel his campaign, Kennedy allies view it positively.

“I would say she’s a billionaire,” a source familiar with Kennedy’s operation speculated to The Hill. Shanahan herself has not publicly confirmed her net worth or liquid assets.
Importantly, the money comes in handy to propel the tactical matters of the campaign, which for an independent look different from the presumptive Democratic and Republican nominees.
“You can hire foot soldiers to collect signatures if need be,” the Kennedy ally said. “And then you can also hire the most high powered, intelligent flood gate piped-in ballot access political attorneys to fight all these fights that the two parties are putting up.”
Democrats are also trying to make the connection between Kennedy and Trump more explicit, hoping to build a narrative around his views like vaccine skepticism and questioning of other scientific and medical advancements. More recently, his ticket’s stance on women’s rights has come into question, and Democrats are looking to position him more in the Republican camp on issues like abortion and IVF.
“Robert Kennedy Jr. is leading an anti-IVF, anti-vaccine and anti-abortion ticket that has no path to winning 270 electoral votes,” said Epting, whose group builds popular grassroots support around those social issues.
Trump, for his part, is playing his own hand with Kennedy. He’s been more outwardly complimentary of the independent, giving him credit for running and cheering on his bid. The former president said this week he “knows him very well” and previously said he believes Kennedy will hurt Biden in the upcoming rematch.
Democrats are urging each other to come together, arguing the Trump political operation is working to build him up.
“We can do more than one thing at the same time,” said Seawright about the Democratic Party’s strategy. “Quite frankly, so far we have the resources to be able to do it. We have the players on the field that have the ability to be able to do it.”
“At this point in the cycle, it’s true about education,” he said. “Educating the American public on not only what we’ve done but who’s fighting against that and who will remove that. Educating the public on the threats that exist today and how deeper and wider those threats can become realities,” he said. “But also educating on the consequences of having an electorate that’s split.”
“This cycle doesn’t present a one-off opportunity,” Seawright added. “It’s not an either/or.”

 

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Trump’s Potential VP Pick Banned from 17% of her own state​

 

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Joe Biden has ‘tightened up his lead’ on Donald Trump​

 

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Nicole Shanahan TARGETED By Democrats, They Want Her OFF RFK Ticket: Analysis​

 

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https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-uses-hush-money-trial-squeeze-small-donors-court-big-spenders-2024-04-19/

 

[Yommie]

Poll: Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race

NBC News' latest national poll shows Biden’s numbers inching up as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., inflation and abortion all scramble the 2024 contest.

www.nbcnews.com

Poll: Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race​

NBC News' latest national poll shows Biden’s numbers inching up as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., inflation and abortion all scramble the 2024 contest.

April 21, 2024, 9:00 AM EDT
By Mark Murray and Sarah Dean
The share of voters who say they have high interest in the 2024 election has hit a nearly 20-year low at this point in a presidential race, according to the latest national NBC News poll, with majorities holding negative views of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
The poll also shows Biden trimming Trump’s previous lead to just 2 points in a head-to-head contest, an improvement within the margin of error compared to the previous survey, as the president bests Trump on the issues of abortion and uniting the country, while the former Republican president is ahead on competency and dealing with inflation.

And it finds inflation and immigration topping the list of most important issues facing the country, as just one-third of voters give Biden credit for an improving economy.

But what also stands out in the survey is how the low voter interest and the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially scramble what’s been a stable presidential contest with more than six months until Election Day. While Trump holds a 2-point edge over Biden in head to head , Biden leads Trump by 2 points in a five-way ballot test including Kennedy and other third-party candidates.
“I don’t think Biden has done much as a president. And if Trump gets elected, I just feel like it’s going to be the same thing as it was before Biden got elected,” said poll respondent Devin Fletcher, 37, of Wayne, Michigan, a Democrat who said he’s still voting for Biden.
“I just don’t feel like I have a candidate that I’m excited to vote for,” Fletcher added.
Another poll respondent from New Jersey, who declined to provide her name and voted for Biden in 2020, said she wouldn’t be voting in November.
“Our candidates are horrible. I have no interest in voting for Biden. He did nothing. And I absolutely will not vote for Trump,” this voter said.
Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, said that “Americans don’t agree on much these days, but nothing unites the country more than voters’ desire to tune this election out.”
The poll was conducted April 12-16, and it comes during yet another turbulent time in American politics, including the beginning of Trump’s criminal trial in New York, as well as new attacks and heightened tensions in the Middle East.
According to the poll, 64% of registered voters say they have a high level of interest in November’s election — registering either a “9” or a 10” on a 10-point scale of interest.

That’s lower than what the NBC News poll showed at this same point time in the 2008 (74%), 2012 (67%), 2016 (69%) and 2020 (77%) presidential contests.
The question dates back to the 2008 election cycle. The lowest-ever level of high election interest in the poll during a presidential cycle was in March 2012 — at 59%. But it quickly ticked up in the next survey.
This election cycle, high interest has been both low and relatively flat for months, according to the poll.
McInturff, the Republican pollster, says the high level of interest in the poll has “always been a signal for the level of turnout” for a presidential contest.
“It makes it very hard for us to predict turnout this far in advance of November, but every signal is turnout will be a lower percentage of eligible voters than in 2020,” he said.
By party, the current poll shows 70% of self-identified Republicans saying they have high interest in the upcoming election, versus 65% of Democrats who say this.
Independents are at 48%, while only 36% of voters ages 18 to 34 rate themselves as highly interested in the election.
“They just aren’t low interest,” McInturff said of young voters. “They are off-the-charts low.”

NBC News poll: Frequently asked questions​

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Biden trims Trump’s lead​

The poll also finds Trump narrowly ahead of Biden by 2 points among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44% — down from Trump’s 5-point advantage in January, 47% to 42%.

That movement, within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, is consistent with what other national polls have showed in the Trump-Biden race.
Trump’s biggest advantages are among men (53% to 37%), white voters (54% to 37%) and white voters without college degrees (65% to 25%).
Biden’s top advantages are among Black voters (71% to 13%), women (50% to 39%) and Latinos (49% to 39%).

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The poll shows the two candidates are essentially tied among independents (Biden 36%, Trump 34%) and voters ages 18-34 (Biden 44%, Trump 43%). One of the big polling mysteries this cycle is whether young voters have defected from Biden (as the NBC News poll has shown over multiple surveys), or whether Democrats have maintained their advantage among this demographic.
When the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden takes a 2-point lead over Trump: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, independent Robert F. Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.

Again, that result between Biden and Trump is within the poll’s margin of error.
Notably, the poll shows a greater share of Trump voters from the head-to-head matchup supporting Kennedy in the expanded ballot compared with Biden voters, different than the results of some other surveys.
(Read more here on how Kennedy's candidacy impacts the 2024 race, according to the poll.)

The president’s approval rating ticks up to 42%​

Additionally, the poll shows 42% of registered voters approving of Biden’s overall job performance — up 5 points since January’s NBC News poll, which showed Biden at the lowest point of his presidency.
Fifty-six percent of voters say they disapprove of the job he has done, which is down 4 points from January.

Biden’s gains over the past few months have come from key parts of his 2020 base, especially among Democrats and Black voters. But he continues to hold low ratings among Latinos (40% approval), young voters (37%) and independents (36%).
“The data across this poll show that Joe Biden has begun to gain some ground in rebuilding his coalition from 2020,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster. “The question is whether he can build upon this momentum and make inroads with the groups of voters that still are holding back support.”
But McInturff, the GOP pollster, points out that the only recent presidents who lost re-election had approval ratings higher than Biden’s at this point in the election cycle: George H.W. Bush (43%) and Donald Trump (46%).
“President Biden has a precarious hold on the presidency and is in a difficult position as it relates to his re-election,” McInturff said.
On the issues, 39% of voters say they approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (up from 36% in January); 28% approve of his handling of border security and immigration; and just 27% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war (down from 29% in January).
Voters gave Biden his highest issue rating on addressing student-loan debt, with 44% approving of his handling of the issue, versus 51% who say they disapprove.

Biden leads on abortion and unity; Trump leads on inflation and competency​

The NBC News poll asked voters to determine which candidate they thought is better on several different issues and attributes.
Biden holds a 15-point advantage over Trump on dealing with the issue of abortion, and the president is ahead by 9 points on having the ability to bring the country together — though this is down from Biden’s 24-point advantage on this issue in the Sept. 2020 NBC News poll.
Trump, meanwhile, leads on having the ability to handle a crisis (by 4 points), on having a strong record of accomplishments (by 7 points), on being competent and effective (by 11 points), on having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (by 19 points) and on dealing with inflation and the cost of living (by 22 points).

Inflation, immigration are the top 2024 issues​

As for inflation and the cost of living, it tops the list of issues in the poll, with 23% of voters saying they’re the most important issue facing the country.
The other top issue concerning voters is immigration and the situation at the border (22%) — followed by threats to democracy (16%), jobs and the economy (11%), abortion (6%) and health care (6%).

Additionally, 63% of voters say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living — essentially unchanged from what the poll showed in 2022 and 2023.
And 53% of voters say the country’s economy has not improved, versus 33% who say it has improved and Biden deserves some credit for it and another 8% who agree the economy has improved but don’t give the president credit for it.
“If I look back to when I had all three of my children in the house — we only have one child left in the house now, and we’re spending more now than what we did when we had a family of five,” said poll respondent Art Fales, 45, of Florida, who says he’s likely voting for Trump.
But on a separate question — is there an issue so important that you’ll vote for or against a candidate solely on that basis? — the top issue responses are protecting democracy and constitutional rights (28%), immigration and border security (20%) and abortion (19%).
Indeed, 30% of Democrats, 29% of young voters and 27% of women say they are single-issue voters on abortion.
“I have a right to what I do with my body,” said poll respondent Amanda Willis, 28, from Louisiana, who said she’s voting for Biden. “And I don’t believe that other people should have the ability to determine that.”

Other poll findings​

• With Trump’s first criminal trial now underway, 50% of voters say the former president is being held to the same standard as anyone else when it comes to his multiple legal challenges. That compares with 43% who believe he’s being unfairly targeted in these trials.
• 52% of voters have an unfavorable view of Biden, while 53% share the same view of Trump.
• And Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied on congressional preference, with 47% of voters preferring Republicans control Congress and 46% wanting Democrats in charge. Republicans held a 4-point lead on this question in January.

The NBC News poll was conducted April 12-16 of 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 contacted via cell phone — and the poll has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.