United States elections 2024

[Yommie]

Donald Trump leads new 2024 poll, but Joe Biden appears to be closing the gap

Six months out from the presidential election, Biden and Trump are polling nearly neck-and-neck.

www.usatoday.com

Donald Trump leads new 2024 poll, but Joe Biden appears to be closing the gap​

Riley Beggin
USA TODAY

WASHINGTON – Former President Donald Trump led President Joe Biden by two percentage points in a new national poll from NBC News, though Biden appears to be closing the gap as the 2024 race for the White House heats up.
The survey, released Sunday, shows Biden polling at 44% and Trump polling at 46%. That's a change from January, when 42% of voters said they would support Biden, and 47% said they would support Trump.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted via cellphone from April 12-16, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Because that margin of error is larger than Trump's apparent advantage, it may be tough to truly determine who has the lead. However, the change between the two NBC News polls indicates a shift in recent months.

Trump had an advantage with men, white voters, and white voters without college degrees, while Biden had an advantage among Black voters, Latino voters and women in the outlet's latest poll. They were effectively tied among independents and young voters.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released last month also showed Trump holding a slight lead over Biden, 40% to 38%.
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

As the 2024 presidential election draws closer, NBC News' poll showed that inflation and the cost of living, as well as immigration, were the top issues concerning voters.
But the head-to-head results shifted when voters were offered multiple candidates rather than just Biden and Trump. When third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein were added to the mix, 39% of voters chose Biden, and 37% chose Trump. That result is also within the poll's margin of error.
When offered the third-party options, more Trump voters than Biden voters chose Kennedy.
The change comes as Biden's approval rating rose to 42% in April from 37% in January, according to NBC News, though a majority of voters still disapprove of his performance as president.
Voters significantly preferred Biden's stance on abortion to Trump's and said he did a better job on uniting the country. Trump, meanwhile, led on his handling of inflation and the cost of living, perceived competency, and "having the necessary mental and physical health to be president."

NBC's polling also indicated that voters are less interested in this election than they have been in other races in years: Just 64% of respondents said they are "very interested" in the election, a measure that GOP pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies described to NBC as "off-the-charts low."
Interest in the election is often an indicator of voter turnout, he said.

 

[Yommie]

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds

The finding contrasts with a number of other national polls, and it comes amid concerted Democratic efforts to prevent Kennedy from harming Biden’s campaign.

www.nbcnews.com

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds​

The finding contrasts with a number of other national polls, and it comes amid concerted Democratic efforts to prevent Kennedy from harming Biden’s campaign.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks to supporters on April 13 in West Des Moines, Iowa. Charlie Neibergall / AP

April 21, 2024, 9:00 AM EDT
By Mark Murray
The latest national NBC News poll shows the third-party vote — and especially independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — cutting deeper into former President Donald Trump’s support than President Joe Biden’s, though the movement the other candidates create is within the poll’s margin of error.
Trump leads Biden by 2 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44%, in the new NBC News poll

Yet when the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden is the one with a 2-point advantage: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.

The big reason why is that the poll finds a greater share of Trump voters in the head-to-head matchup backing Kennedy in the expanded ballot. Fifteen percent of respondents who picked Trump the first time pick Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared with 7% of those who initially picked Biden.

Also, Republican voters view Kennedy much more favorably (40% positive, 15% negative) than Democratic voters do (16% positive, 53% negative).
“At this stage, [Kennedy’s] appeal looks to be more with Trump than Biden voters,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
This finding, however, contrasts with the conventional political wisdom — as well as the results of other national polls — suggesting that a bigger third-party vote hurts Biden more.

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The NBC News poll results on Kennedy’s impact are “different than other surveys,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster. “So there’s always two possibilities: One, it’s an outlier. … Or two, we’re going to be seeing more of this, and our survey is a harbinger of what’s to come.”

The Biden campaign has actively tried to peel support away from Kennedy. Most recently, Biden held an event Thursday with members of the Kennedy family who are endorsing the president over their relative.
Overall, the party is paying much closer attention to Kennedy than it has to past third-party candidates, mobilizing new super PACs and an arm of the Democratic National Committee focused on reducing the pull of his candidacy.
The NBC News poll was conducted April 12-16 of 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 contacted via cell phone — and the poll has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

 

[Yommie]

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[Yommie]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/21/biden-tariffs-jobs-trump-inflation-nbc-news-poll.html

POLITICS

Trump wins voters on inflation as Biden zeroes in on tariffs, jobs: NBC News poll​

PUBLISHED SUN, APR 21 20243:33 PM EDT

Rebecca Picciotto@BECCPICC
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Joe Biden and Donald Trump 2024.
Brendan Smialowski | Jon Cherry | Getty Images
More voters trust Donald Trump than President Joe Biden to deal with inflation and the cost of living, their top concerns for the U.S., according to the latest NBC News poll.
The poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide found that 52% of respondents said Trump would better handle inflation and the cost of living, while 30% said the same of Biden.

The survey was taken from April 12 to 16, several days after the release of another hotter-than-expected inflation report, indicating consumer prices gradually ticking back up. Trump attacked Biden’s economic policies immediately following the release of the data.
As consumer prices heat up again, the Biden administration has kept its message on inflation the same and turned more of its attention to other aspects of the economy: jobs, tariffs and taxes.
Biden’s heavy focus on those issues was evident as he made the rounds in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania last week.
During a Wednesday speech in Pittsburgh, Biden announced that he would support tripling tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports, escalating his growing economic hawkishness toward China.
And a day before in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Biden focused on the tax code and jobs: “There are only two presidents on record in all of American history that left office with fewer jobs than when they entered office: Herbert Hoover and, yes, Donald ‘Herbert Hoover’ Trump.”

These speeches come after months of Biden hammering the argument that businesses are to blame for stubborn high prices and sticky inflation, accusing companies of price gouging and “shrinkflation,” the practice of selling less quantity of goods for the same price.
However, as consumer prices wobble, Biden’s recent remarks indicate an effort to bring other economic issues and data to the forefront of voters’ minds.
For example, while Trump lambasts Biden’s economy, the president has doubled down on the claim that the U.S. “has the best economy in the world.” In fact, the U.S. does lead developed economies on topline metrics like gross domestic product and unemployment.
But voters are not so easily distracted from their feelings about inflation and the cost of living.
Only 11% of respondents named “jobs and the economy” as the most critical issues facing the country heading into the November election. Meanwhile, 23% of respondents, the largest share, said inflation and the cost of living were their number one issues — both of which a majority said Trump would manage better.
Overall, the NBC poll found that Biden appears to be catching up to Trump’s lead, echoing a similar result from a New York Times/Siena College poll earlier this month. The NBC survey found that Trump led Biden by two points in a head-to-head matchup, which was lower than his five-point lead in January. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.10%.
But voters’ rosy memory of the Trump economy has been a consistent thread in early polling and continues to weigh on Biden’s momentum. Despite Biden’s efforts to refocus the conversation on other economic issues, inflation appears to remain an unavoidable barrier to winning over the public’s trust.

 

[Yommie]

New NBC News polling shows Biden closing the gap with Trump​