US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[mythbuster]

If you can't stop 100% of attacks, then that means it's pointless. Again, it's not the attack, it's the threat of attack that is closing the strait, and you just admit you can't stop their attack 100% regardless of how you degrade their offensive capability.

And as I said before, if you want to hold Iranian oil production hostage (which frankly is the only things going out of the strait now which mean if we actually did it, it will make the oil sitaution worse, not better) all you need to do is to threaten to bomb it, you don't need to invade it to hold it hostage, unless you want to take it over and ship it yourself, which you will then need the strait to open.

If you capture Hormuz straits and solidify your control over it then for all practical purposes you hold all the energy of the region as hostage.... attacking rest of the Iran becomes waste of resources.

 

[F-22Raptor]

If you can't stop 100% of attacks, then that means it's pointless. Again, it's not the attack, it's the threat of attack that is closing the strait, and you just admit you can't stop their attack 100% regardless of how you degrade their offensive capability.

And as I said before, if you want to hold Iranian oil production hostage (which frankly is the only things going out of the strait now which mean if we actually did it, it will make the oil sitaution worse, not better) all you need to do is to threaten to bomb it, you don't need to invade it to hold it hostage, unless you want to take it over and ship it yourself, which you will then need the strait to open.

It’s not pointless if Iran loses control over the Strait. This is about getting Iran conceding to US demands, not stopping every single attack. If they lose control of the Strait, they don’t have many cards left to play.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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Major power outages across northern Iran

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Meanwhile, Americans are only paying an extra $20 at the gas pump.

You clearly don't get it nor are you ever going to get it. Frankly, I'm not even going to attempt to explain it to you. Because you won't accept it. You will believe only that which you want to believe.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

It’s not pointless if Iran loses control over the Strait. This is about getting Iran conceding to US demands, not stopping every single attack. If they lose control of the Strait, they don’t have many cards left to play.

If they sink even one tanker in the Strait, then it's pretty much game over. So long as they can threaten the Strait, the Strait remains hostage.

 

[EugeneP]

Also seizure of Kharg Island knocks out 90% of Iranian oil exports.

I watched this on one of the Sunday morning interviews. With no source of income, Iran may be more amenable to negotiations.

 

[F-22Raptor]

You clearly don't get it nor are you ever going to get it. Frankly, I'm not even going to attempt to explain it to you. Because you won't accept it. You will believe only that which you want to believe.

This war has had almost no effect on the US economy outside of higher gas prices. As I stated yesterday, I can cite economic reports in the coming weeks/months.

 

[hembo]

It’s not pointless if Iran loses control over the Strait. This is about getting Iran conceding to US demands, not stopping every single attack. If they lose control of the Strait, they don’t have many cards left to play.

The Strait was always open prior to the completely mis-judged mis-adventure with absolutely no planning. So it appears now the sole US objective is the control of the Strait, while the rest of rhe world goes to hell, which is absolutely condemnable.

 

[EugeneP]

At the moment, nothing that I can see. The US buildup continues.

If we assume this is going to last beyond 2026, what may be the impact if Democrats take over Congress in November elections? Either the House or both House and Senate?

One other issue. Trump will be 80 in June. We have to contend with 'actuarial risk' that JD Vance may become POTUS. What happens to the war then? He seems to be less enthusiastic than Trump.

 

[SolarWarden]

I watched this on one of the Sunday morning interviews. With no source of income, Iran may be more amenable to negotiations.

The regime is going to have a HUGE problem from its population when the conflict is over.

That's the elephant in the room nobody brings up.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

For those who refuse to look at the current situation from a holistic perspective, I ran a couple of AI queries based on specific parameters. Here is the output of a couple searches:





Impact to food production:



Impact to GDP:



So for those who insist this is "just an extra $20 at the pump", the big picture has been missed completely. My company is already seeing it and reacting accordingly. Some of the customers are already changing the class of service they contracted with us for in order to keep costs manageable.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

This war has had almost no effect on the US economy outside of higher gas prices. As I stated yesterday, I can cite economic reports in the coming weeks/months.

All of your reports are lagging indicators. Start doing some forward looking instead of relying on what happened yesterday.

 

[EugeneP]

The regime is going to have a HUGE problem from its population when the conflict is over.

That's the elephant in the room nobody brings up.

I think they have contained any internal dissent fairly well over 40 years. There is no reason why it will be different.

 

[MS Sandhu]

The Strait was always open prior to the completely mis-judged mis-adventure with absolutely no planning. So it appears now the sole US objective is the control of the Strait, while the rest of rhe world goes to hell, which is absolutely condemnable.

Iranian military capability is degraded to a large extend now (about 85% to be very conservative).
Ballistic/Nuclear facilities along with production industry & space R&D centres are also destroyed.
Now is the time to negotiate and get out for America.
Previous ruling elite is also gone.
Let new people to take charge and see how Iran behaves in future.

Iran still has the things that it will not want to lose like the oil infrastructure. Destroying that infra+ capturing its territory will take Iran to the point where it no longer has something to lose and will continue fighting indefinitely.Then it will be everything for America to lose.

 

[RescueRanger]

It’s not pointless if Iran loses control over the Strait. This is about getting Iran conceding to US demands, not stopping every single attack. If they lose control of the Strait, they don’t have many cards left to play.

Dude... you know I've tried my best to remain objective - but your post reads like cope.