US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Davey Crockett]

At the domestic level, gasoline and #2 diesel prices continue to rise. Gasoline is up $0.13 from this time a week ago. It could be in expectation of a heavy end of summer driving season with the Labor Day holiday being the unofficial end of summer.

Or, it could be what the oil industry executives have been warning us about for a few months now.

The fall harvest is about 6-8 weeks away.

Also, refineries have been running at full production and regular maintenance being delayed.

Surprised a refinery hasn't blown up yet.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Also, refineries have been running at full production and regular maintenance being delayed.

Surprised a refinery hasn't blown up yet.

A Valero refinery did in late May or early June.

 

[Yasser76]

Munir and Trump had a call recently it seems

 

[hussain0216]

Nah.

The US produces roughly two-thirds of the petroleum it consumes domestically. Of the crude oil it imports, nearly 62% comes from Canada.


US crude oil consumption and production

Year	US consumption	Domestic production	Domestic production as % of consumption	Crude imports	Crude imports as % of consumption
2024	20.5m b/d (~$576bn)	13.2m b/d (~$371bn)	64.4%	~6.6m b/d (~$185bn)	~32.2%
2025	20.6m b/d (~$488bn)	13.6m b/d (~$323bn)	66.0%	6.2m b/d (~$147bn)	30.1%
2026	20.6m b/d (~$608bn)	13.8m b/d (~$408bn)	67.0%	~6.0m b/d (~$177bn)	~29%

US crude oil imports — 2025

Rank	Country	Imports	Share of US crude imports
1	Canada	~3.83m b/d	61.7%
2	Mexico	~0.43m b/d	7.0%
3	Saudi Arabia	~0.26m b/d	4.2%
4	Venezuela	~0.22m b/d	3.5%
5	Iraq	~0.19m b/d	3.0%

Now let's look at US natural gas.

The US actually produces considerably more natural gas than it consumes domestically. It still imports a relatively small amount, but almost all of those imports come from Canada.


US natural gas consumption and production

Year	US consumption	Domestic production	Domestic production as % of consumption	Gas imports	Gas imports as % of consumption
2024	90.33 Bcf/d (~$72bn)	103.07 Bcf/d (~$82bn)	114.1%	~8.6 Bcf/d (~$6.9bn)	~9.5%
2025	91.88 Bcf/d (~$118bn)	107.64 Bcf/d (~$139bn)	117.2%	~8.6 Bcf/d (~$11.1bn)	~9.4%
2026	92.03 Bcf/d (~$116bn)	111.19 Bcf/d (~$140bn)	120.8%	~7.5 Bcf/d (~$9.4bn)	~8.1%

The small amount it imports comes overwhelmingly from one country: Canada, which supplied approximately 99.7% of US natural-gas imports in 2025.


US natural-gas imports — 2025

Rank	Country	Imports	Share of US natural-gas imports
1	Canada	~3.153 Tcf	~99.7%
2	Trinidad & Tobago	~7.25 Bcf	~0.23%
3	Qatar	~3.53 Bcf	~0.11%
4	Mexico	~0.24 Bcf	~0.007%
5	—	No significant fifth supplier	—

So, like I said earlier, the conspiracy theorists are just out there selling their books with all those doom-and-gloom predictions.

Keep an eye on this

 

[hussain0216]