US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[AZ_HighCountry]

Also, refineries have been running at full production and regular maintenance being delayed.

Surprised a refinery hasn't blown up yet.

A Valero refinery did in late May or early June.

 

[Yasser76]

Munir and Trump had a call recently it seems

 

[hussain0216]

Nah.

The US produces roughly two-thirds of the petroleum it consumes domestically. Of the crude oil it imports, nearly 62% comes from Canada.


US crude oil consumption and production

Year	US consumption	Domestic production	Domestic production as % of consumption	Crude imports	Crude imports as % of consumption
2024	20.5m b/d (~$576bn)	13.2m b/d (~$371bn)	64.4%	~6.6m b/d (~$185bn)	~32.2%
2025	20.6m b/d (~$488bn)	13.6m b/d (~$323bn)	66.0%	6.2m b/d (~$147bn)	30.1%
2026	20.6m b/d (~$608bn)	13.8m b/d (~$408bn)	67.0%	~6.0m b/d (~$177bn)	~29%

US crude oil imports — 2025

Rank	Country	Imports	Share of US crude imports
1	Canada	~3.83m b/d	61.7%
2	Mexico	~0.43m b/d	7.0%
3	Saudi Arabia	~0.26m b/d	4.2%
4	Venezuela	~0.22m b/d	3.5%
5	Iraq	~0.19m b/d	3.0%

Now let's look at US natural gas.

The US actually produces considerably more natural gas than it consumes domestically. It still imports a relatively small amount, but almost all of those imports come from Canada.


US natural gas consumption and production

Year	US consumption	Domestic production	Domestic production as % of consumption	Gas imports	Gas imports as % of consumption
2024	90.33 Bcf/d (~$72bn)	103.07 Bcf/d (~$82bn)	114.1%	~8.6 Bcf/d (~$6.9bn)	~9.5%
2025	91.88 Bcf/d (~$118bn)	107.64 Bcf/d (~$139bn)	117.2%	~8.6 Bcf/d (~$11.1bn)	~9.4%
2026	92.03 Bcf/d (~$116bn)	111.19 Bcf/d (~$140bn)	120.8%	~7.5 Bcf/d (~$9.4bn)	~8.1%

The small amount it imports comes overwhelmingly from one country: Canada, which supplied approximately 99.7% of US natural-gas imports in 2025.


US natural-gas imports — 2025

Rank	Country	Imports	Share of US natural-gas imports
1	Canada	~3.153 Tcf	~99.7%
2	Trinidad & Tobago	~7.25 Bcf	~0.23%
3	Qatar	~3.53 Bcf	~0.11%
4	Mexico	~0.24 Bcf	~0.007%
5	—	No significant fifth supplier	—

So, like I said earlier, the conspiracy theorists are just out there selling their books with all those doom-and-gloom predictions.

Keep an eye on this

 

[hussain0216]

 

[F-22Raptor]

 

[F-22Raptor]

 

[F-22Raptor]

 

[F-22Raptor]

 

[The SC]

He added: "No one is immune from US sanctions, including China."

Personally, I would be very surprised if the sanctions affected China as an official state and government, and I still hold my opinion that Washington will pursue Chinese entities and companies that are at the forefront without a direct official clash with Beijing (the Chinese state), even though I have just heard from some analysts expecting China itself to be targeted.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Trajectory for Iran is clear, they’ll either capitulate to US demands or they’re headed for an economic abyss. An they have no way to counter US air or naval power in the region, so Trump can mow the lawn whenever he wants.

Just a matter of time until protesters take to the streets again given the economic conditions. The regime has no good options here.

 

[F-22Raptor]

What does Iranian “victory” even look like at this point? The $300B, unfrozen assets, and sanctions relief are long gone. The HEU is buried. You can’t keep the Strait closed. You’re under full naval blockade. Oil prices are nowhere near critical, and Mojtaba is hiding like he’s the next Bin Laden. The economy is beyond devastated.

Don’t know how members here are spinning this into some Iranian W and American defeat. Even if the US hasn’t attained every maximalist objective such as full regime change, the US is undoubtedly coming out of this in a far stronger geostrategic position.

 

[F-22Raptor]

 

[Shags101]

Trajectory for Iran is clear, they’ll either capitulate to US demands or they’re headed for an economic abyss. An they have no way to counter US air or naval power in the region, so Trump can mow the lawn whenever he wants.

Just a matter of time until protesters take to the streets again given the economic conditions. The regime has no good options here.

Man as easy you make all of your opinions sound this war should have been over in a week….thousands of pages by now but I’m fairly sure you and a couple of other guys thought Iran would be waving the white flag within several days or less especially @SolarWarden I keep tagging him and he keeps on acting like he doesn’t see my tags but honestly as many times people thought Iran was going to give up on both sides of the debate regarding this war(which should have never happened seriously) Iran comes out surprising people quiet before the storm let’s see what happens

 

[Avicenna]

Man as easy you make all of your opinions sound this war should have been over in a week….thousands of pages by now but I’m fairly sure you and a couple of other guys thought Iran would be waving the white flag within several days or less especially @SolarWarden I keep tagging him and he keeps on acting like he doesn’t see my tags but honestly as many times people thought Iran was going to give up on both sides of the debate regarding this war(which should have never happened seriously) Iran comes out surprising people quiet before the storm let’s see what happens

It was supposed to last one weekend remember?

A lot of moving goalposts and cope.

In anycase Iran is outmatched for sure but it's put up quite a fight.

And I have to laugh at the notion that somehow the US is in a stronger geostrategic position.

Pure delusion.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Man as easy you make all of your opinions sound this war should have been over in a week….thousands of pages by now but I’m fairly sure you and a couple of other guys thought Iran would be waving the white flag within several days or less especially @SolarWarden I keep tagging him and he keeps on acting like he doesn’t see my tags but honestly as many times people thought Iran was going to give up on both sides of the debate regarding this war(which should have never happened seriously) Iran comes out surprising people quiet before the storm let’s see what happens

It was supposed to last one weekend remember?

A lot of moving goalposts and cope.

In anycase Iran is outmatched for sure but it's put up quite a fight.

And I have to laugh at the notion that somehow the US is in a stronger geostrategic position.

Pure delusion.

No one ever said this was lasting a week or weekend. Primary military phase was at 6 weeks. That was pretty consistent to carry out Centcoms target set. They hit 80%.

An yes the US is in a far stronger geostrategic position. After all, power is relative and Iran and its proxies are immensely weaker today than prior to 10/7. Not to mention Assad being ousted, Syria being run by a CIA asset, and the Iraqis long since strategically captured.