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We help you build the railway, but you still need people, money and technology? Vietnam really treats China as a wishing fountain
2024-06-30 15:44:07 Source: Pingxiang Life Diary
1. Do you want China to help Vietnam build railways, or do you want China to provide people, money and technology ?
Comrades and friends who have been paying attention to Vietnamese news recently should know that Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Zheng visited China recently. He came to Liaoning to participate in the World Economic Forum held in Dalian. Afterwards, he publicly made a request to us at the forum. It is hoped that China can help Vietnam develop their railway projects, especially high-speed railway projects.
I can feel from this that the Vietnamese government is quite eager for the China-Vietnam railway cooperation project this time. Reports related to Fan Mingzheng’s request for railway cooperation during his visit to China were all published by the Vietnam Government News Network in their on the front page. Moreover, in relevant reports, the wording used by the Vietnamese government is relatively polite:
"China and Vietnam have good relations and are friendly neighbors connected by mountains and rivers. Trade cooperation between the two countries has grown rapidly in recent years. The two countries should strengthen economic and trade cooperation and promote railway transportation interconnection... China's railway development strength is strong, which is also the reason for Vietnam's industrialization and Key areas for modernization and rapid and sustainable development. Prime Minister Pham Minh Zheng emphasized that the Vietnamese government is willing to create favorable conditions for Chinese companies to invest in Vietnam and carry out mutually beneficial cooperation.”
Of course, some people look polite, and some look less polite. After all, this is Vietnam, a country that has been dealing with us for thousands of years, and is well versed in the art of diplomacy:
“Prime Minister Fan Mingzheng proposed that China Railway Communications and Signaling Group and related enterprises participate in the establishment of Vietnam’s railways, assist Vietnam in cultivating talents, transfer technology, and share railway industry development experience with Vietnam.”
This is what the Vietnamese government news website says, and it is also in the simplified Chinese version. To put it bluntly, this kind of report is only for Chinese people like me who often go to the Vietnamese media to find some China-related news. In the relevant English version of the report by "Vietnam Express" (vnexpress), another media with Vietnamese official background, the Vietnamese wording made me feel like I was choking after reading it:
Vietnam’s Minister of Transport Nguyen Van Thang said that from now to 2045, Vietnam will have a huge gap in demand for construction funds. Just building a 9,000-kilometer-long highway project will require 600 trillion VND (approximately RMB 171.3 billion). 4.8 trillion VND (approximately RMB 13.7 million) is needed to build cross-border railways between China and Vietnam, as well as urban rail projects in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. In addition, Vietnam still needs a lot of money to build new ports and upgrade old airports.
Nguyen Van Theng said frankly: “Such a huge funding gap may bring challenges to the Vietnamese government’s infrastructure projects, but it is also a great opportunity for Chinese and Vietnamese companies to actively cooperate.”
Please note that the project funds mentioned here do not even include the North-South high-speed rail project currently being planned in Vietnam. As for the North-South High-Speed Railway project in Vietnam, I have actually introduced it to you in more than one program before:
The Vietnamese government is planning to build a high-speed rail line of more than 1,500 kilometers in the country to connect the northern, central and southern regions of Vietnam. This plan is Vietnam’s most ambitious infrastructure plan to date. According to data previously disclosed by Vietnamese official media, the cost of the high-speed rail project may be as high as 72 billion U.S. dollars, approximately 5,232 yuan, accounting for the current gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam. 17%.
Cooperation is of course necessary, but we must not make concessions to the other party that may harm our long-term interests just for the sake of cooperation. Without the wisdom of fighting without defeat, the overall situation of harmony without difference will not be given to you in vain.
This high-speed railway is actually the North-South high-speed railway in Vietnam that has been planned by the Vietnamese government for many years, but "only the sound of stairs is heard, but no people are seen coming down". Although Vietnam has never built a high-speed rail before, according to Hanoi's vision, the technical standards of Vietnam's north-south high-speed rail are quite high.
The total length of this high-speed railway is approximately 1,560 kilometers, which is much longer than the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway we built for Indonesia (the total length is approximately 142 kilometers), and also much longer than the Meng-Ai high-speed railway built by Japan for India (the total length is approximately 508 kilometers).
Vietnam’s North-South High-Speed Railway looks beautiful
Moreover, the speed set by the Vietnamese government for Vietnam's North-South High-Speed Railway is still very high, directly aiming at the technical specification of 350 kilometers per hour, not only to carry people, but also to transport cargo. This is the first time to build a high-speed rail with such high standards, so the project cost will definitely not be low. US$72 billion is still a conservative estimate. Everyone should know that Vietnam's North-South High-Speed Railway is a major project that has taken more than ten years. Affected by multiple factors such as inflation and the international situation, project costs are likely to rise during this period. Considering that Vietnam does not have as strong an ability to resist risks as our country, I estimate that it is unlikely that this high-speed railway will be completed on time, let alone that costs must be strictly controlled and prices will not increase.
I don’t know if it is because the Vietnamese themselves are aware of the unpredictable and extremely high risks of the North-South High-Speed Railway project, so Fan Mingzheng did not focus too much on related matters during his trip to China. He was more concerned about connecting. There are three railway projects between China and Vietnam: “Lao Cai – Hanoi – Haiphong”, “Dong Dang – Hanoi” and “Mong Cai – Halong – Haiphong”. Because they are directly related to China-Vietnam railway connection cooperation, and the technical difficulty is much lower than that of the North-South High-speed Railway, and the project cost is also much lower.
Of course, this makes it easier for Vietnam to stretch out our hands to ask for this or that, and to open our mouths.
2. Even if China is a Bodhisattva, Vietnam cannot use a borrowed incense to both want, want, and want
In the original words of "Vietnam Express" in the relevant English version report:
Prime Minister Pham Minh Ching said that Vietnam hopes to build three railway projects connecting North Vietnam and China. These railway projects will not only help connect Vietnam with Central Asia and Europe, but will also help China open land routes to other ASEAN countries.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Zheng encouraged Chinese enterprises and hoped that China would actively participate in Vietnam's railway infrastructure projects through public-private partnership investment and other means. Not only that, Prime Minister Pham Minh Zheng also made a series of other suggestions to China, such as providing low-interest loans to Vietnam, providing human resources training to Vietnam, and providing technology transfer to Vietnam.
Translating the remarks of Vietnamese officials and media, the general idea is: We in Vietnam hope to vigorously develop modern infrastructure, especially modern railway infrastructure, especially high-speed rail. But none of us in the Vietnamese government have money or technology, so can you China help us and fulfill our wishes? It would be even better if you could give us more people, more money, and more technology.
So we have helped Vietnam so much, what can Vietnam repay China? "Helping China open land access to other ASEAN countries."
But the problem is that Vietnam does not seem to be the only ASEAN country bordering China. And long before Vietnam opened its mouth to us, we had already laid out our high-speed rail projects in Indochina countries such as Laos and Thailand. As for countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore in the South China Sea... Indonesia already has our Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, and Malaysia and Singapore are planning to ask us to build a new high-speed railway. This matter is not even close to Vietnam and the Indochina Peninsula. I don’t have it. We must beg you to give us this favor.
You call us over to help you upgrade your railway network and build high-speed rail for you. After that, we still need personnel training, low-interest loans, and technology transfer... We need a lot of things for this and that. After all, this is the only thing you can provide. The clear reward is when middlemen reap profits between us and other ASEAN countries?
It is understandable that Vietnam has a dream to develop high-speed rail, but there is no reason for China to bear such an expensive dream.
Such a huge effort will result in such a reward. No matter how you calculate this account, it seems unreasonable, right ?
Frankly speaking, if I were a Vietnamese, then I think I would cheer for the words and deeds of the Vietnamese government and media, because everything they said and done was based on the position of Vietnam’s national interests, and what they proposed to China These are all requirements that are very beneficial to Vietnam. If they can be implemented, they will definitely provide huge help to Vietnam's development in the future. Given time, it may be able to surpass Thailand and become the truly unparalleled "local hegemon" on the Indochina Peninsula.
But unfortunately, I am Chinese after all. From our Chinese perspective, it is really difficult for me to accept all these so-called "requests" that Vietnam has made to us. The reason why China's high-speed rail has developed to the height that it dominates the world today is entirely due to the hard work, wisdom and hard work of our Chinese people. It was not blown by strong winds, but by our own efforts. You don't pay anything, just rely on some illusory policy concessions and verbal promises, and you want to take away our hard work over the years? That's not how it works.
The last Vietnamese prime minister who only wanted to care about what China wanted and was unwilling to show sincerity to China was named Pham Van Dong. Pham Van Dong served in the two governments of Ho Chi Minh and Le Duan. During Ho Chi Minh's time in power, Pham Van Dong knew how to restrain himself. Later, as soon as Le Duan gained power, he immediately turned away from us and threw himself into the arms of the Soviet Union without blinking an eyelid. China aided Vietnam in resisting the U.S. and tightened its belt to provide tens of billions of yuan worth of aid to Vietnam over the years, which suddenly became an old imperial history that Vietnam laughed off.
In our evaluation system, Pham Van Dong has always been a very complicated figure. On the contrary, Vietnam has a very high evaluation of him.
Past history is not far away. Although one model is not the other model, the memory of being bitten by a snake is still very deep for Chinese people of our generation, so it is normal for us to have grudges and concerns about it. It would be weird if we didn't.
It’s hard to say that things that have happened before will happen again in the future. It’s always right to be cautious and cautious.
We in China can use the strategy of "market for technology" to bargain with the West, because we have the largest high-quality consumer market in the world. China can do it ≠ foreign countries can do it, especially small countries like Vietnam that can only survive regardless of market size or economic size. I think the Vietnamese actually know this in their hearts. Otherwise, they would not have brought out the Erawan Buddha of ASEAN to support themselves when bargaining with us. It is because Vietnam cannot provide its own strength, so it needs to borrow the strength of others.
Vietnam is betting big on railway planning. To a certain extent, China and Japan are just tools used by Vietnam to lower prices.
In this case, there is no need for us to follow Vietnam's wishes and do their things according to their rhythm. Sino-Vietnam railway cooperation is certainly a good thing and should be actively promoted, but this initiative should be based on us, not Vietnam.
The friendship of "comrades and brothers" is not unattainable, but after all, this is a cooperation involving real money, and whether it should be discussed in business or in business. If you can make money, do it; if you make more money, do more; if you make less money, do less; if you don't make money, don't do it. This is the most basic underlying logic of modern business cooperation. You can’t say that when we want to discuss business cooperation, you just want to have a comradeship with me; when we want to promote cultural exchanges with each other, you tell me that we are talking about business.
On June 7, about two weeks before Pham Minh Ching’s visit to China, Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Pham Thu Heung criticized us at a regular press conference held that day, objecting and demanding that our “ocean The "Zhizhi No. 26" research vessel stopped its "illegal investigation operations" in Vietnam's "economic exclusive and continental shelf waters". He also said, “Vietnam has negotiated with China many times on this matter.”
After all, this old news was displayed on the Vietnamese government news homepage at the same time as the news about Pham Minh Ching’s recent visit to China.
Being able to put old news about protests against China's legal exploration activities in the South China Sea and news about Pham Minh Zheng's visit to China on the same page shows Vietnam's duality on the China issue.
The Vietnamese know very well that their relationship with us is not as good as they tell us.
So do we.
Therefore, in business, just talk about business, and don’t talk too much about other things. Unless it helps you and me talk about business, you don’t need to mention it.
Stop treating China like a wishing fountain. Even if you go to the temple to worship the Bodhisattva, you won't burn a piece of incense and care whether the Bodhisattva wants it, wants it, or wants it, right ?
Not to mention that the incense ordered in Vietnam was borrowed from someone else.
Appreciating a wise, knowing those out. It is easy to know others, but it is difficult to know oneself, so we Chinese people often say: To be a good person requires self-knowledge.
People should not ask for blessings that exceed their ability and tolerance. Otherwise, if you ask for too much, you will be more likely to get nothing in the end.
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