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What if Australia and Indonesia went to war in 1999?
In the late 1990s, a crisis in East Timor pushed Australia and Indonesia to the brink of conflict. But what if diplomacy had failed, and the crisis escalated into open war?
This video explores a full-scale counterfactual: the forces, strategies, and likely outcomes of a 1999 Australia–Indonesia war. Using detailed historical research, realistic Orders of Battle, and wargaming simulations, we reconstruct how such a conflict might have unfolded — from air combat over the Banda Sea to ground battles in the jungles of East Timor.
We’ll also look at the broader consequences: how regional powers might have reacted, and how the Asia-Pacific could have been reshaped by a war that didn’t happen.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:04:53 Historical Background
00:23:38 Political Goals
00:26:10 Force Comparison - Australia
00:49:04 Force Comparison - Indonesia
01:11:13 Terrain Analysis
01:15:47 Operational Planning - Australia
01:20:36 Operational Planning - Indonesia
01:25:06 Simulated Conflict
03:00:50 Debrief
In the late 1990s, a crisis in East Timor pushed Australia and Indonesia to the brink of conflict. But what if diplomacy had failed, and the crisis escalated into open war?
This video explores a full-scale counterfactual: the forces, strategies, and likely outcomes of a 1999 Australia–Indonesia war. Using detailed historical research, realistic Orders of Battle, and wargaming simulations, we reconstruct how such a conflict might have unfolded — from air combat over the Banda Sea to ground battles in the jungles of East Timor.
We’ll also look at the broader consequences: how regional powers might have reacted, and how the Asia-Pacific could have been reshaped by a war that didn’t happen.
Chapters:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:04:53 Historical Background
00:23:38 Political Goals
00:26:10 Force Comparison - Australia
00:49:04 Force Comparison - Indonesia
01:11:13 Terrain Analysis
01:15:47 Operational Planning - Australia
01:20:36 Operational Planning - Indonesia
01:25:06 Simulated Conflict
03:00:50 Debrief
