Flotilla
Trusted Member
Yeah but without nuclear subs for japs, am I right?.
China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank
- Thread starter Beijingwalker
- Start date
War Lord
Trusted Member
The super-heavy Russian losses in Ukraine are indeed eye-opening, but 2 years into the war, it seems Russia is winning.
In war, it's the result that matters. And if Russia could actually overwhelm Ukraine with all the West backing, there needs to be a bigmark if the West could sustain the support to fight a protracted war with the likes of China, which has many times the industrial and manpower from that of Russia.
The Taiwanese aren't any tougher than Ukrainians, and supplying the Island will be a big problem.
What matters is to make the war, Ukrainian or Taiwanese, costly for the aggressor.
Russia has lost over 300-400k men. It'll continue to lose more as the year, or the years, progress. It'll be hard to replace them. Just like it won't be easy to replace all the material and financial loss.
Similarly, it's very cheap for the US to support Ukraine, and Taiwan, because of the opportunity cost being so low. Every US dollar invested into Ukraine brings a 2-10x return, if not more. Compare that to the Afghan/Iraq wars where US never got to see a return on its investment.
Hendarto
Registered Member
That is a complete lie Russian casualties are way lower than that Most of the casualties are due to artillery fire and Russia has overwhelming superiority when it comes to artillery fire. Russia artillery Fire is almost 5 to 1 ratio compared to Ukraine. We know Ukraine's casualties are around 500,000 dead or injured her interior minister said that So Russian casualties are around 150000.
What? 2 to 10 returns that are BS for every dollar you sent to Ukraine mean there are fewer dollars for domestic programs like health care and welfare. Witness the rising homelessness and bankruptcy in the collective West. So the idea of cost-free provocation to weaken Russia backfired badly. The Russian economy is getting stronger while the EU and especially Germany witnessing the hollowing of industry, rising unemployment and rising inflation Good luck with that
Hendarto
Registered Member
The same applies to Taiwan missiles they will be intercepted and fooled by electronic warfare. Witness the experience of the Russo-Ukraine war Russian IAD works perfectly there are leaks here and there but mostly they work. But Russia has almost limitless missiles, drones, and rockets that overwhelm Ukraine's IAD. Hitting Ukraine's weapon depot, airfields, cities etc. No China doesn't attack Taiwan not out of weakness but To declare war and sending someone's son, father, and husband to death is not something you do on a whim you need casus belli for that Sofar Taiwan does not declare independence everything is good.Some, if not most, of those "precision strikes" will be intercepted by Taiwan.
Taiwan itself will not just sit back. It'll attack anything in Eastern China, within range, that attacks it.
These are the ranges of Taiwanese missiles:
View attachment 23509
There's a reason why China hasn't taken back Taiwan yet. Keep chest thumping on PDF though.
The limited U.S. - China war fought over Taiwan has two impacts. First, it will result in great amount of damage to Chinese coastal defences which is the source of Chinese invasion. This because Chinese navy is totally inexperienced and their naval military hardware is of poor quality. Second, there will be jeopardy of $600 billion in exports of Chinese manufactured goods to US, Europe and Japan. That damage has a great amount of impact on China and its future.
Chinese will always threaten but will never fight. If they do they will jeopardize their future.
Chinese will always threaten but will never fight. If they do they will jeopardize their future.
ety
Trusted Member
Lol, it will be a totally different war than Ukraine if it ever will happen. Many Taiwanese just will surrender, its a internal, not like Russia against Ukraine. If you dont know about the Taiwan military capability, then dont brag here.I'm sure CCP has a better guess at how many offensive weapons of war Taiwan has then either of us.
Keep chest thumping on PDF though, it won't change reality which is that China will lose a lot of lives, material and $$$ in a invasion of Taiwan.
Just look at Russia in Ukraine.
gambit
Professional
Russian losses, of every kind, in Ukraine are being watch closely -- understatement of the year -- by China. In war, environment dictates both defense and offense. The problem for China here is the environment -- water. On land, you have more flexibility, speed, and rate of change for mobility. Not the same on water. These guys talk as if it is easy to cross that 100 miles of water. If such crossing is as easy as their ignorance spewed, Taiwan should have fallen before they became the democratic country they are today. It is funny that the guy who said he design SHIPS, not boats, can make that claim with a (virtual) straight face.The super-heavy Russian losses in Ukraine are indeed eye-opening, but 2 years into the war, it seems Russia is winning.
In war, it's the result that matters. And if Russia could actually overwhelm Ukraine with all the West backing, there needs to be a big
The Taiwanese aren't any tougher than Ukrainians, and supplying the Island will be a big problem.
Assault Amphibious Vehicle - Wikipedia
Max speed is 20 mph or 30 kmh. Troop capacity 12 with full gear.
The largest of all amphibious warfare ships, the LHD is a multi-purpose amphibious assault ship that resembles a small aircraft carrier. Each can carry 1,870 troops as well as a variety of air and landing craft.
Which will be able to make that 100 miles crossing in sea states that could break human spines? Here is the Douglas Sea Scale for example.Douglas sea scale - Wikipedia
Most of the yr, the Taiwan Strait states are 5-7 with two 2-3 weeks window of state 4. The PLAN will need to transport 1 million troops over rough sea at speed maybe 12 mph.
Optimizing ship speed depending on cargo and wind-sea conditions for sustainable blue growth and climate change mitigation - Journal of Marine Science and Technology
The impact of fuel consumption on merchant ships is categorized in both economic and environmental ways in terms of sustainable blue growth. Apart from the economic benefits of reducing fuel consumption, attention should be paid to related environmental concerns with ship fuels. As a result of...
link.springer.com
Look at section 3.1 : Factors affecting ship fuel consumption and ship speed
All ships must arrive at Taiwan at the same time. I do not mean at exactly the same time but within a narrow window to disembark troops. That mean all ships must be in specific array during transit and landing. The entire time, unlike land warfare where troops can quickly disperse and regroup, change direction and return, these ships must stay in formation and because the environment is water, changes in directions are predictable by observers.
Navigating the Black Ditch: Risks in the Taiwan Strait | Center for International Maritime Security
Navigating the Black Ditch: Risks in the Taiwan Strait
cimsec.org
Seasonal environmental variation has a large impact on the navigability of the strait. The China Coastal Current flows southward in the western part of the strait from a maximum strength in winter months, backed by the northeast monsoon, to its weakest point in the summer. On the eastern side of the strait the northward flowing Kuroshio Branch Current is turned back by the north-east monsoon in the winter after exiting the Penghu Channel, but continues the rest of the year, while reaching its maximum strength in the summer. Each year from July to September, an average of six larger (and, thus, named) tropical storms and typhoons impact the strait. Year-round, the strait is known for strong winds, wave swells, and fog (156.3 days a year of level 6 or higher on the Beaufort Scale), but these effects are amplified during the winter months. Fang Xu and Pingping Chen, writing in Securing the Safety of Navigation in East Asia by Keyuan Zhou and Shicun Wu, note that these conditions impact “not only challenges to safety at sea but also obstacles for efficient search and rescue.”
The Beaufort Scale is for wind. Here is wind state 6:Large waves begin to form; the white foam crests are more extensive everywhere. |
Large branches in motion; whistling heard in telegraph wires; umbrellas used with difficulty. |
So for at least 1/2 of the yr, wind is strong enough to knock humans over, and if we reference the highlighted, the invasion windows are April-May or Oct-Nov with 2-3 weeks each. And even then, the transit will be in rough not calm sea. Now, try to imagine the transit while under bombardment. This is not twice but thrice the difficulty of D-Day when you factor in that there is no element of surprise, unlike D-Day when the Allies had the element of surprise from deceiving the Germans months before. For D-Day, it took 6 hrs to fully disembark all troops. How long will the PLAN need?
The guy claimed to design SHIPS in post 230 but is clueless on these facts. Am Air Force and I found these facts.
ety
Trusted Member
Nonsense, who say Chinese hardware is of poor quality ? How experienced US navy is in modern war, lol ? US dare not to wage war on China in the Taiwan strait area.
PakFactor
Elite Member
Hendarto
Registered Member
That is BS China's central government didn't develop Fujian province for a reason because they will be at the forefront in Taiwan contingencies. Most Chinese bases are located inland and they are highly dispersed and heavily hardened into the caves etc, unlike US and Japanese bases.
China has one of the densest IAD, covering all the coast and point defense in strategic places. If we learn anything from Russo Ukraine war is that IAD work! So much so that US Air Force is now thinking of changing the strategy because of it. The idea of US hitting China's coast with impunity is out of Holywood. Air superiority is a myth!
The same with missiles and cruise missile after initial success we haven't heard of success the like of Storm Shadow or Scalp Russian EW fooled them and they landed harmlessly or were destroyed by book
Air defense has pushed manned combat aircraft to standoff distances that reduce their effectiveness and lethality.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/02/air-defense-shapes-warfighting-in-ukraine.html
The Ukraine war might shine a brighter light on challenges facing NATO warfighting and modernization. NATO has counted on local air superiority as a precursor to ground operations. But capable Russian air defenses threaten non-stealth aircraft such as the F-16, Rafale, or Typhoon, designed in the 1970s and 1980s but upgraded since. They may be unable to penetrate defended airspace without assuming significant risk, as seen in some of Ukraine's air operations.
“Electronic warfare is an exceedingly important part of modern operations, and the Russians have had a significant advantage in it throughout the war, which has proved a sustained problem for Ukraine,” said Jack Watling, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think-tank.
Russia’s Pole-21 guidance suppression system can be stationed on the ground, on towers or mounted on vehicles and can jam an area of 150km, according to a military consultancy report shared with the Financial Times. Another is the Murmansk, which uses vast extendable 32m antenna towers mounted on mobile armoured vehicles.
Russia has increasingly deployed EW to push off-course Ukraine’s western-supplied, precision-guided munitions, such as Himars rockets and Excalibur artillery shells. Moscow has also used its EW capabilities to mimic missile and drone launches in order to confuse Ukraine’s air defences and identify their locations, Pavlenko said.
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ety
Trusted Member
They are few US military advisors in Taiwan, not real fighting forces. China has military exercise with Russia once a year on the ground and sea, but Chinese army don't train with Russians. NATO is behind Ukraine eh, it does have a small navy. Russian navy is backward today we all know.
Hendarto
Registered Member
The Western analysts try to fan themselves by saying that the Taiwan invasion is impossible because of the swell, weather Typhoon what not but Shi Lang the Qing general did it a century ago. As if it wasn't done before but It has been done before
Shi Lang divided his force into several smaller fleets. Most of them were sent to attack Liu and his Penghu defense fleet. However, a small detachment was sent to go around the battle and land directly on the island where Liu's base was located. Liu was prepared for this and positioned archers and cannons on the beaches, followed by troops to stop the Qing advance.
A few days before the battle, Shi Lang had bought cannons from the Dutch so his ships were better armed. On July 12, 1683, Qing naval forces took Hujing Island and Tongpan Island in the early stages of the battle.[4]: 42 During the battle, the Qing forces smashed into Liu's force and broke up his formation. The defenders still fought bravely. The Qing ships were larger, better armed, and had more ammunition and within an hour, most of the Tungning ships were at the bottom of the ocean. However the remaining ships continued to fight.
In the end, the Tungning ships ran out of ammunition but hand-to-hand combat still continued. When his flagship and commander Liu ran out of ammunition, the remaining ships surrendered, some of them burning for three days and nights. Many generals and soldiers refused to surrender but rather chose to drown as a show of loyalty to the former Ming dynasty, thus ending the battle.
Shi Lang divided his force into several smaller fleets. Most of them were sent to attack Liu and his Penghu defense fleet. However, a small detachment was sent to go around the battle and land directly on the island where Liu's base was located. Liu was prepared for this and positioned archers and cannons on the beaches, followed by troops to stop the Qing advance.
A few days before the battle, Shi Lang had bought cannons from the Dutch so his ships were better armed. On July 12, 1683, Qing naval forces took Hujing Island and Tongpan Island in the early stages of the battle.[4]: 42 During the battle, the Qing forces smashed into Liu's force and broke up his formation. The defenders still fought bravely. The Qing ships were larger, better armed, and had more ammunition and within an hour, most of the Tungning ships were at the bottom of the ocean. However the remaining ships continued to fight.
In the end, the Tungning ships ran out of ammunition but hand-to-hand combat still continued. When his flagship and commander Liu ran out of ammunition, the remaining ships surrendered, some of them burning for three days and nights. Many generals and soldiers refused to surrender but rather chose to drown as a show of loyalty to the former Ming dynasty, thus ending the battle.
gambit
Professional
Am (ex)USAF, F-111 Cold War, then F-16 Desert Storm.
I said this many times on this forum before, and will repeat now.
Air Dominance: The ability of an air force to compel other air forces to re-array themselves, usually into subordinate postures.
Air Superiority: The ability of an air force to achieve control of contested airspaces, repeat if necessary, and if there are losses, those losses would not pose a statistical deterrence to that ability.
Air Supremacy: He flies, he dies.
Note the highlighted: Air Superiority, particularly that bit about statistics.
Back in DS, allied airpower went from dominance to supremacy in days, not weeks. You want to achieve air superiority as quick as possible BUT stay there as short as possible. Contested airspace is usually over ground territory that is a part of an overall strategy, that mean airpower support ground forces or ground goals. So what does 'statistical deterrence' mean?
Why do we still need the airplane if air defense missiles are so cheap and easily deploy? Because air defense is REACTIVE or defensive, whereas, the airplane is offensive, meaning able to take that offensive capability anywhere and faster than defensive capability can re-deploy. So no matter how good is air defense, it will always fall back on the airplane to help achieve ground forces and goals. Even the cargo airplane is considered offensive because carrying troops and logistics is part of taking the fight to the enemy.
So what does 'statistical deterrence' mean in practical terms?
If you deploy 100 airplanes to a region of contested airspace and if you lose 1 per week, that loss rate would discourage your ability to REPEATEDLY achieve air superiority over that piece of ground. One week you do not lose, but then the next week you lose. The longer you are in 'Air Superiority' mode, the longer your ground forces stay where they are, and that mean the longer the war. This is what we saw and STILL see with the VKS over Ukraine.
On the other hand, if you deploy 1000 airplanes to a region of contested airspace and if you lose 1 per week, your reserve would be able to continuously make you a credible threat in that contested airspace so that it will stay contested maybe only one week. It does not matter if that loss came from enemy air or from air defense. A loss is still a loss regardless of how. We do not see that with the VKS over Ukraine despite supposedly Russia have much more airpower than Ukraine. With 1000 deployed airplanes, that 1 per week loss ceased to be a statistical deterrence.
Now, we come to low radar observable, aka 'stealth', platforms.
If you deploy 100 'stealth' fighters to a region of contested airspace, because they are 'stealth' they have a higher 'kill' ratio so even if your loss rate is 1 per week, the enemy lost more. This is what they mean when they use the phrase 'force multipler'. The higher kill ratio is equivalent to 1000 deployed fighters. So that 1 per week loss rate, even if the loss is 'stealth', is not a statistical deterrence.
Now we come to the combination of 'stealth' and 'non-stealth' platforms that the US will inevitably deploy against China...Mmmm...I ain't sayin...
When the F-117 is flying aggressor training in Nevada, that should be a concern for ALL air forces.
gambit
Professional
Sure...Conduct a seance and hopefully those ancient generals will respond.
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