This is Tennessee mid-term 2022
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District 7 had a total of 180822 vote.
This is TN-07 election in 2025
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TN-07 had 178000 votes.
So yes, that is closer to mid-term than special election
Another thing is, yes, turnout is lower, but it's not going to be able to under cut that 13% gain (or 20% if we use the statewide number) you are talking about a 10% turnout difference max (from 51% this election to 60% in the presidential election). And basic math dictate that you are going to need 20+% voting margin to be able to pull that 13% back, because you need to outperform in the election from on average 53 out of 100 people to vote for you, to 61 out of 100 to vote for you, again, against a Progressive candidate no less. That's mathematically impossible.
Most people don't know how election works (Well, most people say they do, but they generally don't). You are talking about 1/10 of the entire district who would have voted for Trump (or GOP) and didn't vote, and that's on the winning side, no less. I can tell you this, I studied Political Science and Elections in college, and I run numbers for a living, and I don't see any pathway this can be explained by people who stay at home instead of Behn gaining popularity. Because you would need around 50000 people to stay at home in this election, and all those people would have voted for Trump. 500, maybe, 5000 is a big ask, and 50,000 is absurd