Venezuela - US Conflict: News, Updates

Simple: Because not everyone can do it, despite wanting to gain that advantage.
Exactly. Their refineries are setup for light crude and it’s the opposite for US where the refineries are setup for heavy oil.

They can’t take advantage of cheaper heavy oil, same way that US can’t take advantage of its local light shale crude.
 
Exactly. Their refineries are setup for light oil and it’s the opposite for US where the refineries are setup for heavy oil.

They can’t take advantage of cheaper heavy oil and US can’t take advantage of its light shale crude.

And it is easier to go from heavy to light than the other way. Others cannot use heavy crude as easily as USA can. It is by choice, and that can be changed as needed. There is no compulsion for USA as you seem to claim.
 

Sir, I told you that there is more to this intervention then what it seems to be on the surface of it. If this article is correct then Trump admin have done its homework.

I understand your point of view. I understand that Venezuela is a dangerous environment where different mafias exist and it might be important to navigate this environment carefully. However, the US have direct access to Venezuela. Trump's playbook is also different for Venezuela, the first of its kind based on surgical operations in different countries and lessons drawn from them. Trump admin initially dispatched the CIA to Venezuela to figure out how Maduro regime works and how to exploit it. Trump admin also ordered a military buildup near Venezuela to strike at Maduro regime if need be. However, the US struck Maduro regime in such a way that the Maduro regime is separated from Maduro himself and his successor is said to be plaint. The CIA have done a splendid job there.

The US does not have direct access to Afghanistan. The US could access Afghanistan via Pakistan and had to respect Pakistan's interests in the process. The Taliban had a broader support base back then and Pakistan cautioned the US to find a way forward with it. The US also employed a less surgical strategy for war in Afghanistan. The dynamics of war in Afghanistan could change if Operation Anaconda in 2002 had led to capture of Osama Bin Laden (OBL) but this opportunity was missed. The Al-Qaeda Network would have chosen a successor but OBL might have provided valuable information in captivity which could be used to dismantle the Al-Qaeda Network at a faster pace in the region. You might want to check what Senator Kerry had to say on this matter. The war in Afghanistan prolonged because it took many years to discover hideouts of the Al-Qaeda Network's most wanted individuals in the region and nab (or eliminate) them. The Taliban were willing to negotiate with the US early on but were ignored by Bush admin. When Trump took charge, the US and the Taliban reached an understanding. The Taliban agreed to not support the Al-Qaeda Network in exchange for the US to allow it to rule Afghanistan. Both sides found a way forward in mutually acceptable manner.

The Taliban are rather exposed in the present as Pakistan have tensions with the Taliban regime. Now might be the best time to strike at the Taliban but it remains to be seen how Pakistan will address this matter and Trump admin will bite or not. The US does not seem to have a problem with Afghanistan in the present.

The Al-Qaeda Network were brainwashed crooks but many people in different countries are not insane and have livelihood concerns. Many people in different countries don't want to experience war, particularly with the strongest country in the world. If Venezuelan forces were up against a neighboring threat then the average joe in Venezuela be like "Right, WE can handle this shit." But when it is the US then the average joe in Venezuela be like "Dang, what are my options?." Modern warfare continues to evolve and change in time due to ongoing innovation in technology and development of new tactics based on prior operational experiences. A different region also presents a different set of challenges to deal with. I am sure that you understand these fundamentals well enough.

I respect your professional experience and understand that many readers can learn a lot from you. Nevertheless, I am a sharp observer and my conventional judgement can be spot on. Refer to this. Let's see.
This is what the former MI6 Chief (British "CIA") thinks

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The problem with what you said about the Maduro Regime is that it was untouched, and there won't be anything that had done to it with this strike can because this is a one off, the chance of another one of this operation to punish the next person who not fall in line with Trump is near zero, because this is heavily relied on surprise. And with no degradation of military capability with Venezuela. If the US tries it again, it will be more difficult, if not outright impossible.

What this strike did, however, in a pure intelligence point of view, is to expose and burn all the unknown weaknesses, which makes another penetration nearly impossible. And in terms of political structure, you basically make them more resolved to fight you, while I do not agree on mostly what @MH.Yang said, he said one thing is very true in this regard, you don't resort to assassination (or in this case, doing this) becasue it WILL: make a martyr out of the man, I already asked all the source I know in country, the country actually turned around and support Maduro. Trump can say whatever he wants, but if the Venezuelans sided with Maduro and his "rightful" successor, you don't get the key to the castle simply because you take him out. This is the same reaction done to Trump after his conviction, people didn't abandon him because of this, instead it turned into a political showcase, and he eventually won the Presidency, it WILL BE THE SAME in Venezuela, you can even smell that by noticing the obvious absence from all the opposition voices in Venezuela, even they had distant themselves from it. That's how bad it is in Venezuela.

On the other hand, what you compare the Afghan to the Venezuelan is basically the same; they are brainwashed for 20+ years with this regime and the Chavez regime. That is a very long time to entrench itself in the government, and a lot of work for them to be deprogrammed. I know first hand how these Taliban think, I interrogated a few with my time there, you are expecting drastic change to their core believe once their leader is out of the picture, this is not going to happen, because nobody is buying into OBL (or in this case Maduro) because of OBL himself, this is a cult of some sort, yes, the leader is the person who charm them in the cult, but it is THE STRUCTURE that make them stay, either by will or by force, and in this case, the "Structure" here in Venezuela is untouched.

As for what the venezuela think when the US invade them, you need to ask what will the American think if we invade Venezuela instead, again, the point I made before stand, this ops is made so that direct confrontation are avoided, if we are prepare for an all out war with Venezuela, we won't do this, instead you will see Chinook landing the 3 Marine MEU in country wide Political and Miltiary Strong point to seize the country, but not this. We didn't even do a full count on Venezuela's military capability nationwide.

You can expect anything you want, but most analysts in the intelligence world agree this operation won't lead to anything other than a show trial.
 
And it is easier to go from heavy to light than the other way. Others cannot use heavy crude as easily as USA can. It is by choice, and that can be changed as needed. There is no compulsion for USA as you seem to claim.
So US by choice want to acquire heavy oil (because of course US can’t have any weaknesses), even that leads to, in all practical terms, Venezuela beimg about trying to get the oil (heavy oil). I mean Trump and Heggseth are saying it officially that they will (want to) control the oil and here we are debating it’s not.
 
This is what the former MI6 Chief (British "CIA") thinks

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The problem with what you said about the Maduro Regime is that it was untouched, and there won't be anything that had done to it with this strike can because this is a one off, the chance of another one of this operation to punish the next person who not fall in line with Trump is near zero, because this is heavily relied on surprise. And with no degradation of military capability with Venezuela. If the US tries it again, it will be more difficult, if not outright impossible.

What this strike did, however, in a pure intelligence point of view, is to expose and burn all the unknown weaknesses, which makes another penetration nearly impossible. And in terms of political structure, you basically make them more resolved to fight you, while I do not agree on mostly what @MH.Yang said, he said one thing is very true in this regard, you don't resort to assassination (or in this case, doing this) becasue it WILL: make a martyr out of the man, I already asked all the source I know in country, the country actually turned around and support Maduro. Trump can say whatever he wants, but if the Venezuelans sided with Maduro and his "rightful" successor, you don't get the key to the castle simply because you take him out. This is the same reaction done to Trump after his conviction, people didn't abandon him because of this, instead it turned into a political showcase, and he eventually won the Presidency, it WILL BE THE SAME in Venezuela, you can even smell that by noticing the obvious absence from all the opposition voices in Venezuela, even they had distant themselves from it. That's how bad it is in Venezuela.

On the other hand, what you compare the Afghan to the Venezuelan is basically the same; they are brainwashed for 20+ years with this regime and the Chavez regime. That is a very long time to entrench itself in the government, and a lot of work for them to be deprogrammed. I know first hand how these Taliban think, I interrogated a few with my time there, you are expecting drastic change to their core believe once their leader is out of the picture, this is not going to happen, because nobody is buying into OBL (or in this case Maduro) because of OBL himself, this is a cult of some sort, yes, the leader is the person who charm them in the cult, but it is THE STRUCTURE that make them stay, either by will or by force, and in this case, the "Structure" here in Venezuela is untouched.

As for what the venezuela think when the US invade them, you need to ask what will the American think if we invade Venezuela instead, again, the point I made before stand, this ops is made so that direct confrontation are avoided, if we are prepare for an all out war with Venezuela, we won't do this, instead you will see Chinook landing the 3 Marine MEU in country wide Political and Miltiary Strong point to seize the country, but not this. We didn't even do a full count on Venezuela's military capability nationwide.

You can expect anything you want, but most analysts in the intelligence world agree this operation won't lead to anything other than a show trial.

It’s like entropy and chaos theory. Once a (relatively) stable system is disturbed, you can’t predict or control what comes out of it.
 
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Huh? Look happy?
 
So US by choice want to acquire heavy oil (because of course US can’t have any weaknesses), even that leads to, in all practical terms, Venezuela beimg about trying to get the oil (heavy oil). I mean Trump and Heggseth are saying it officially that they will (want to) control the oil and here we are debating it’s not.

There is no debate possible between the simple facts in evidence above and a pre-determined fixated opinion.
 
There is no debate possible between the simple facts in evidence above and a pre-determined fixated opinion.
The opinion is of POTUS and Secretary of War.

Till it was not the case yesterday, we were exploring and debating to clarify the matter according to our understanding. Now our opinions have been Trumped. Excuse the pun please.

I was merely filling in the details on why US needs that heavy oil with facts about its refinery setup.
 
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It’s like entropy and chaos theory. Once a (relatively) stable system is disturbed, you can’t predict or control what comes out of it.
Exactly, once you skipped the playbook, then you are into unknown territories, you can't predict what will happen.

Don't get me wrong, I would like to see Venezuela throw out the entire regime after this. If it happens, then good for them, but there are more ways to go sideways than going the way Trump wanted, and from a historical perspective, this never turns out well. Just saying...
 
@Watandar or anyone - I believe since you are in US, what is the current reactions from MAGA people after Venezuela?
I’m from south Florida maga people don’t care at all they’re like maduro who but the Venezuelans are buying a ton of polar beer I work in the beer industry…don’t driving just deliver

Forgot to add I may not be big on maduro but this isn’t a let’s save the country from turmoil they’re attempting to make a banana republic where trump and the oil companies control the resources of the country he has blatantly said it Ibut the war hasn’t even started I think it’s just begun
 
More than the equipment. These states friendly to China need support, to have a stable economy, to rout out turncoats and ineffective government officials. These states need stable governments, with decent governance and friendly publics, so if equipment is sold it won’t be left on the shelf and actually be used to defend should something happen by whomever.

Btw, there is probabaly limited trust between China and many of these countries. China would be safer off just selling equipment, and sending advisors to work out the embassy, as with other major powers.

Good governance and a strong economy are more powerful than most deterrence. Especially when it is known China won’t send troops to countries, such as far away in Africa, to defend those regimes.

For example, will China send PLAN warships to escort oil tankers back to China from Venezuela, bypassing US naval forces? Marco Rubio just announced a quarantine of Venezuelan oil, but not going after the remaining regime, at the moment.

Because of the oil tanker seizure incident, the Chinese government has already begun to discuss sending warships to escort merchant ships to South America.

Usually such discussions only symbolic and indicative, and it means that the Chinese warships will inevitably become a routine escort in South America.
 
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This is the sixth time Trump has used military force to attack other countries during his term.

February 1, 2025: Somalia
March 15, 2025: Yemen
June 22, 2025: Iran
December 19, 2025: Syria
December 25, 2025: Nigeria
January 3, 2026: Venezuela

The United States and Israel are rolling back the post-World War II international order to the law-of-the-jungle era before World War I.

Small and medium-sized countries have gone from being 'countries with weak power lack diplomatic capital' to 'countries with weak power will be attacked.'

Small and medium-sized countries make up 97% of the world. The post-World War II international order no longer exists. The changes that the United States and Israel are making to the world will affect everyone.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire, which started World War I, ended in disintegration.

Japan, which started World War II, was given two atomic bombs by the United States. Germany was divided and then reunited. Italy lost its territory.

World War III is on its way. The instigators are the United States and Israel.

Nuclear weapons will not destroy the Earth, but they will destroy most of humanity. China has successfully conducted multiple midcourse interception tests of hypersonic missiles. Currently, China and Russia share missile defense early warning systems. I believe that depending on the situation, this protection will be further extended to friendly countries.
On the bolded parts which friendly countries?
Iran - friendly to both Russia & China
Pakistan - friendly to china / neutral for Russia
North Korea - again friendly to both Russia and China
India - friendly to Russia, hostile to China
Cuba - friendly to Russia, dunno about relations with China
Venezuela - again friendly to both Russia and China ( and too late )
Why the reactive behavior / stance and not proactive. Why hesitate to protect your interest and by saying that I am not asking for a hot war with NATO but something like the Cuban missile crisis ( and even that was a reactionary move by the Erstwhile USSR).
 

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