Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Lol not gonna fall for such an obvious trap.
There is no trap. Everything is now out in the open. We were misled. We anticipated a massive bombing campaign across Iran or some sort of dramatic decapitation operation.

It turns out that the US is pursuing a very straightforward and logical strategy. They have a clear roadmap with a detailed, gradual plan to execute.

They begin with a naval blockade and simply observe Iran's response. If that proves ineffective, they will likely target symbolic yet less critical military assets, such as the Iranian Navy.

At each step, they will pause to assess Iran's reaction, allowing Tehran time to adjust hoping the regime's survival instincts kick in and they accept US demands. However, they maintain complete control over the escalation potential.

This clearly indicates that all the discussions about regime change were merely a tactic to instill fear. Their true aim is to have a defanged, non-threatening, harmless Iran that poses no threat.

The Americans at this point don't seem interested in catastrophic war consequences that would choke the region and global economy. Very Trump.

Israel may not be entirely pleased with this approach, but it is certainly better than nothing.

It does make sense to me.
The US probably wants to start 'Project China' before the Chinese become too powerful and therefore is not interested in a long war with the Iranians.

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Naval blockade on Iran's oil exports is a declaration of war
Which means that those people on on pdf who never believed Iranian ASCMs and other kinetic projectiles would fly across the person gulf are about to get the shock of their lives.
 
Not sure what the specific armament is like between both sides, but it needs to be said that any major asset loss of the U.S (carrier, refueler, jets etc) by Iran, would be seen as a very big blow and can risk total escalation (due to the temperament of the current administration).
 
I said there are no perfect solutions. at least this way you can't be hit while excavating from the outside.

It’s been over 6 months and many of these bases are still working on reinforcing the tunneling. This doesn’t bode confidence that they can open and stabilize the entrances to risk a missile with 750KG of explosives + fuel to pass thru. If a cave in happens during transport that will be catastrophic.

and with more tunnel entrances the US would have to precisely hit dozens of tunnel entrances every single day.

Most satellite images I have seen is 4 entrances. I don’t think you can create that many entrancss. Remember not all are missile bases some are just glorified missile depots which is a much smaller missile hall for storage and loading. Compare that to the bigger “cities” that also have the auto launchers built in.

it means a significant percentage of their sorties will be dedicated to just this task rather than other objectives.

What other objectives? The nuclear program is already effectively neutered. Bombing the airforce bases wouldnt take much time after the tomahawks first go after them.

The priority would be to attack the costal anti ship missile bastions and go after the BM capability. Those are the most important.

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similar playbook

the question is how Iran will respond if the US starts seizing ships carrying Iranian oil on a regular basis


Well remember Trump already did this in his first term and successfully reduced Iranian exports to less than 200K barrels per day. He even had some buy in from China.

Iran made bold claims back then (no one would be able to export oil) and after some tit for tat tanker sabotages and the infamous Armaco drone attack, things came to a head with the US HALE drone shot down and Solemani assassination. Then iran stopped going after tankers. In the end, Irab was able to weather it, but also the economic situation in 2019/2020 while not great, was still much better. Toman was trading around 15,000-20,000 around then if I recall correctly vs 150,000 today.

But this makes sense, continuing pressuring Iran economically. It’s the “Saddam-ification” of Iran.
 
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Iran should not accept this backtracking. UAE pressure on west to give us sanctions and the claim that our Islands belong to UAE (EU says so because they bribed EU) need to be calculated in the retaliation. This message should reach them (directly or indirectly).
 
Iran should not accept this backtracking. UAE pressure on west to give us sanctions and to claim our Islands belong to UAE (EU says so) need to be calculated in the retaliation. This message should reach them (directly or indirectly).

Make no mistake if Iran gets weakened during a conflict. The UAE will send its Navy and Marines to take over the islands.

This statement they put out is for geopolitical courtesy and to avoid any consequences, but they won’t hesitate when the moment is right to annex land. Then they will let Israel build listening posts on those islands.
 
Make no mistake if Iran gets weakened during a conflict. The UAE will send its Navy and Marines to take over the islands.

This statement they put out is for geopolitical courtesy and to avoid any consequences, but they won’t hesitate when the moment is right to annex land. Then they will let Israel build listening posts on those islands.
They are opportunist hyenas who kill Sudanese children for gold. So they want a free ride from US and Israel to grab the Islands later. That's why Iran should go pre-emptive on them.
 
If they attack Iran, it will be with the definite support of these arab kinglets. (even if the kinglets say they didnt support attack), but I hope Iran takes these kinglets out and teaches them a lesson on not support the americans.
(that means teaching qatar, bahrain, jordan, uae, etc and ensuring those countries suffer), going after US bases is useless and waste of ammo. Direct the attack to those countries actual territory and bring the war to them too, so they realize the cost of supporting the bully/usa.

has iran come out with any statement about attack? They need to do so with a big warning to all these kinglets that they will definitely suffer the after-effects of the war if Iran is attacked. Make them piss in their jubahs!!.
 
Not sure what the specific armament is like between both sides, but it needs to be said that any major asset loss of the U.S (carrier, refueler, jets etc) by Iran, would be seen as a very big blow and can risk total escalation (due to the temperament of the current administration).
Total escalation? They are the ones who attacked first. Iran has no luxury of holding back. Holding back means signing your defeat. Fight hard and even if you lose you'd say you tried your best. But holding back and not fighting to the max is a death wish. Iran shouldn't fear total war since this is a war imposed on Iran, so IRGC only needs to fear Allah not humans.
 
Total escalation? They are the ones who attacked first. Iran has no luxury of holding back. Holding back means signing your defeat. Fight hard and even if you lose you'd say you tried your best. But holding back and not fighting to the max is a death wish. Iran shouldn't fear total war since this is a war imposed on Iran, so IRGC only needs to fear Allah not humans.

Yes. This was not to assign blame or encourage restraint, but rather on the effect of total escalation on the region itself, including instability in already instable borders. Should have specified on my part.
 
Is Trump negotiating with Iran to freeze nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program and halting of execution of arrested individuals during the protests in exchange for sanctions relief? Will Iran agree?

Time Magazine reports 30k casualties during the Iran protests.
 
Is Trump negotiating with Iran to freeze nuclear ambitions, ballistic missile program and halting of execution of arrested individuals during the protests in exchange for sanctions relief? Will Iran agree?

Time Magazine reports 30k casualties during the Iran protests.
Fake news, the 30k comes from an exile Pahlavi lobbyist who is also an eye doctor/surgeon.
I hope IRI will create a list of all these terrorists.
 
Definitely the case here in Scandinavia. My take on Irans domestic issue is irrelevant but I cannot for the life of me understand how many Iranians I have met here who want Trump to attack Iran. How much hatred do you have that you want another nation to come in and bomb your people because it might lead to a different government.

Iranians inherently are extremely stubborn and arrogant people by nature. We always have a high tendency to go to extremes in love or hatred for something. Regime supporters and opposers both are examples of these extremities.

There is a small but visible group of self hate fetishists with repeated "I told you so" soothsayer syndrome, some are on this forum. They basically predict worst of the worst irrational BS.
 
Iranians inherently are extremely stubborn and arrogant people by nature. We always have a high tendency to go to extremes in love or hatred for something. Regime supporters and opposers both are examples of these extremities.

There is a small but visible group of self hate fetishists with repeated "I told you so" soothsayer syndrome, some are on this forum. They basically predict worst of the worst irrational BS.
Why can't Iranians emulate Japanese, Koreans and Star Trek's Vulcans that only follow cold, hard logic instead of emotions? Need such mentality to do things with surgical precision and stoicism...
 

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