Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Israel boasts about offering a false peace deal to throw Hezbollah into disarray.
How many times must you be deceived before you're satisfied?
Have you already forgotten what happened because Maduro weakly negotiated with Trump?
Trump doesn't want war, he's a rational man, he's seeking a deal.
Do those repeating such nonsense truly wish for Iran's destruction?
 
China gets its oil from Iran so of course China will ignore this and threaten to stop 100% all Rare Earths to USA if they impose more tariffs on China for trading with Iran. China will be willing to go to war if their oil supply from Iran is blocked by US Navy, so this is assured.
Or they will replace Iranian oil with Saudi oil.
 
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The USA military power with multiple carriers is already 10 times more powerful than UK+France combined(I don't include Germany since their navy doesn't even have 1 Aircraft Carrier), so Iran shouldn't worry about fighting all of NATO since the USA is NATO, and Turkey as a Muslim power would sit one out, so I think Iran should bomb that Cyprus NATO base with IRBMs if necessary to take out that air base so UK F-35s can't operate out of that base.
 
If hezbollah is still not potent, then why did Israel sign a fake ceasefire with lebanon and hezbollah (because it couldn't defeat hzb)only to start bombing hzb and south Lebanon after the ceasefire till now?

You might be mistaking hezbollah's silence for weakness, I am not making that mistake. Hzb did so much damage to israel in that war, and israel is still recovering from that beating and Iran's OP TP2- look at rhe like in suicide rates and protests in their army and cities.

But the war been in a continuum.....just changes form, ao Iran can and will continue its destruction of vital Israeli targets and infrastructure that are critical to the state of israel functioning. Is eilat port back open after houthis shut it down? Northern Israel is not built back or fully repopulated, the confidence in the idf is not strong, because 🇮🇱 didnt defeat any enemy after all those clashes and deaths and destruction + costs it received and paid.
Hmm.... No, I do not think they remain a potent force at this point. They're facing a lot of challenges preventing them from making a meaningful recovery. Read this excerpt, not to say it's true, some people argue the opposite that Iran gave Hezbollah freedom to operate and it was Hezbollah that outlined its strategy, but that's not the point. The point is being too risk adverse led to producing less effective strategies that the AoR is paying for to this day.... Hamas wanted Hezbollah to exercise option #2 around time (shortly after) Israel began a ground invasion of Gaza:

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Hezbollah’s Military Options

From a purely military perspective, if Hezbollah had the freedom to take action separate from the influence of Iran, and if it inherently believed in its mission to defeat Israel, it could have opted for far more effective strategies than the one it used on Oct. 8. It had at least three options.

The first option, which is the most escalatory, is to invade the Galilee with the best-trained Hezbollah fighters and sow even greater chaos and panic across Israel. Under that scenario, Hezbollah had a strategic opportunity to launch a Blitzkrieg-style offensive, which could have posed an acute security threat to Israel. This possibility had concerned Israeli defense planners since 2000, when Hassan Nasrallah first alluded to the prospect of a ground incursion by Hezbollah forces.

The second option
, which is less escalatory than the first, is to launch a high volume of more lethal and precise missiles against urban and strategic targets inside Israel and, as a result, make it a lot more difficult for the Israeli military to effectively prosecute two fronts—one against Hezbollah, and one against Hamas.

The third option, which is the least escalatory, is to adopt a primarily defensive posture, remaining within Lebanese territory and refraining from opening an additional front against Israel. Hezbollah would only support Hamas politically.

However, in the end, Hezbollah opted for the least effective military strategy: a limited war of attrition it could not even sustain, one that would provoke the Israeli government just enough to badly hurt the group.

Hezbollah’s Oct. 8 response to Israel’s war against Hamas was consistent with Iranian wishes. Doing nothing was not an option for Iran because Hamas is a key player in the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.” But at the same time, Iran wanted to avoid escalation with Israel, which is why it arguably constrained Hezbollah’s military activity. The great irony is that by doing that and seeking to preserve Hezbollah’s alleged deterrent against Israel, Iran ended up significantly harming its Lebanese ally.
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This is why I was calling for Hezbollah to participate in May 2021 skirmish alongside Hamas, because that long vacation from fighting Israel was not going to lead to good things for the group when it came to the struggle with Israel. Israel was not taking a vacation. It was heavily targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure and supply line in Syria and simulating attack plans on Lebanon, which it can afford to do, unlike Hezbollah and Hamas which have to put their systems and processes to test, in order to make any performance assessment.
 
Hmm.... No, I do not think they remain a potent force at this point. They're facing a lot of challenges preventing them from making a meaningful recovery. Read this excerpt, not to say it's true, some people argue the opposite that Iran gave Hezbollah freedom to operate and it was Hezbollah that outlined its strategy, but that's not the point. The point is being too risk adverse led to producing less effective strategies that the AoR is paying for to this day.... Hamas wanted Hezbollah to exercise option #2 around time (shortly after) Israel began a ground invasion of Gaza:

..
..
Hezbollah’s Military Options

From a purely military perspective, if Hezbollah had the freedom to take action separate from the influence of Iran, and if it inherently believed in its mission to defeat Israel, it could have opted for far more effective strategies than the one it used on Oct. 8. It had at least three options.

The first option, which is the most escalatory, is to invade the Galilee with the best-trained Hezbollah fighters and sow even greater chaos and panic across Israel. Under that scenario, Hezbollah had a strategic opportunity to launch a Blitzkrieg-style offensive, which could have posed an acute security threat to Israel. This possibility had concerned Israeli defense planners since 2000, when Hassan Nasrallah first alluded to the prospect of a ground incursion by Hezbollah forces.

The second option, which is less escalatory than the first, is to launch a high volume of more lethal and precise missiles against urban and strategic targets inside Israel and, as a result, make it a lot more difficult for the Israeli military to effectively prosecute two fronts—one against Hezbollah, and one against Hamas.

The third option, which is the least escalatory, is to adopt a primarily defensive posture, remaining within Lebanese territory and refraining from opening an additional front against Israel. Hezbollah would only support Hamas politically.

However, in the end, Hezbollah opted for the least effective military strategy: a limited war of attrition it could not even sustain, one that would provoke the Israeli government just enough to badly hurt the group.

Hezbollah’s Oct. 8 response to Israel’s war against Hamas was consistent with Iranian wishes. Doing nothing was not an option for Iran because Hamas is a key player in the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.” But at the same time, Iran wanted to avoid escalation with Israel, which is why it arguably constrained Hezbollah’s military activity. The great irony is that by doing that and seeking to preserve Hezbollah’s alleged deterrent against Israel, Iran ended up significantly harming its Lebanese ally.
..
..

...
...

This is why I was calling for Hezbollah to participate in May 2021 skirmish alongside Hamas, because that long vacation from fighting Israel was not going to lead to good things for the group when it came to the struggle with Israel. Israel was not taking a vacation. It was heavily targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure and supply line in Syria and simulating attack plans on Lebanon, which it can afford to do, unlike Hezbollah and Hamas which have to put their systems and processes to test, in order to make any performance assessment.
What it means for Iran:


Iran’s survival​

With that in mind, some members of Hezbollah may view the survival of the Iranian government as existential and push them to attack the US’s most fervent regional ally, Israel.

“The only scenario in which [Hezbollah may attack Israel] is if there is a genuine, clear and present existential danger to the very survival of the Iranian regime and if the Iranian regime orders all its regional proxies to go all in,” Bitar said. “Otherwise, I think Hezbollah is most likely to stay out of it.”

Salamey said that only a “dramatic external shock” like a regional war including Iran would draw in the group. Otherwise, any response “would likely require a clear crossing of red lines that directly threaten Hezbollah’s core survival, not symbolic or tactical losses.”

Still, he said, “any response would likely be limited, calibrated, and asymmetric, aimed at signalling relevance rather than triggering full-scale war. Hezbollah currently lacks the strategic confidence, logistical depth, and political cover needed for broad escalation.”
 
The US is walking on cold feet because Iran will cross lines the US doesn't want them to, due to the existential nature of any upcoming conflict with Iran. Iran and Iran-aligned militias in Iraq would strike at Bahrain/Qatar/UAE + Jordan + Israel. They don't have an alternative.

Iran is not in the USA's backyard. Months of threats won't cause entire Iranian leadership to jump ship to US side and stage essentially a coup against their own leader.

This is a minimum 1-3 month long commitment for the US which Trump administration is not prepared for. Partially also because US leadership protects Israel with more missile batteries than for our own soldiers/bases in the Middle East. CENTCOM knows the US forces are more vulnerable to attacks than Israel is.

There is no credible 'one and done' pathway for the USA when it comes to Iran. Iran is more prepared to attack international shipping routes/energy supply than it is in protecting it's Western border from Israel. Previously Syra/Iraq were acting as buffer against Israeli strike.

Iran is most vulnerable to another Israeli attack from the West. That is the least risky endeavor for US and allies but Israel currently lacks a justification to go to war with Iran. The Israeli population would also not be okay with it. And Israel would have to be able to persuade the US to commit to a regime change war, which it is likely reluctant to do so.

Thus, only explanation for US deployment in the region is a kind of defensive one, maybe allies were spooked developments in Iran would result in Iranian regime lashing out at region. It's also for the US to collect data/observe Iranian military and government to better assess whatever military options they're presenting to Trump, particularly how well they can absorb an Iranian response.

It appears that at the moment they simply don't know how this plays out. Iran cutting off internet is playing a big part in this. Their assets on ground probably are having trouble communicating or collecting information. Iran being in hyper-alert state and also having an eye on the sea with drone flights and utilizing whatever early warning methods are also complicating whatever US is considering doing

The US is not going to commit in a big way to war in the region. Not with the Ukraine conflict and focus on China. It probably sought to create some Arab NATO + Israeli alliance to tackle Iranian threat together down the road, but Arabs were not receptive to this and Gaza Genocide most certainly killed any such possibility of that happening.

This means US would take on most of the burden of this war, and US + American people are not interested in that. I see de-escalation occurring over the weeks, unless Iran really drops its guard.
 
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Are they that stupid or act deliberately stupid for idiot public knowing that Iran is cut off from global financial system.
 
Iran is simply too large and many of its capabilities fortified enough to be able to do a 'one and done' blitzkrieg from the air like can be done in Gaza or Lebanon

The only possibility of US strike is US doing something highly escalatory like targeting Iranian navy + capabilities of Iran located on Iran's coast. An attempt to severely weaken Iranian regime + allow an Israel attack on Iran's BM capabilities from the Western direction. Leaving Iranian military + government in shock, and try to push for momentum towards a regime change.

That could wrong if not successful enough, at which Israel + other US allies in region will not make any commitments to the US, leaving the US in awkward position of having to back down or double down and commit to a last second chaotic plan on ground with allies for regime change that wouldn't play out well

Simply put there are no good military options as they won't bring about desired political objectives for those strike options
 
Israel, on other hand, sees this as opportunity of lifetime to make regime change in Iran. They believe the current conditions are best they could have ever asked for. And if US is unwilling to embark on regime change adventure now, then it won't ever do so.

Israel's capacity to act in Iran is limited. Iran will seek to build an extensive missile capability to more effectively counter-strike in future skirmishes with Israel. If Israel can't stop that, Iran will have thousands more missiles in a few years that can reach Israel.

That would be considered as an existential threat to Israel as it would limit Israeli freedom of action over Iran simply because of mutual deterrence. Then Iran could attempt to rebuild nuclear program at some point and it would have to breakout and seek nuclear weapons. Or at the minimum a may more risk tolerant nuclear threshold status
 
This could also be a trap for Iran by causing estrangement between Iran and China, with the false hope of investing in Iran, but putting sanctions back on for whatever reason they wish, like they've done before, whereby Iran is then left with nobody to sell its oil to! Iran should be able to decide whoever they wish to sell their oil.

If we go by the assumption that Larijani-IRGC-Reformists are executing a slow coup then they will do anything to cripple the system including war. They siphoned off the trade revenues from Bank Merkazi otherwise where did the money go? if you remember it happened during Rohani/Zarif era as well. The inflation is artificially induced. Soleimani is gone or burnt from inside, dozens of other ideological Islamist/principalist generals and scientists are gone or retired. Khamenei is 87, conservatives lost the election, their last President and FM were killed. Any war will result in completion of coup.
 
Why? I thought the plot is Iran unites with China(BRICS) to replace the USD with RMB?

My worldview has always been about BRICS replacing the USA because I don't like Trump and the racist White Men ruling USA, so from my perspective I'd like to see the USA fall/collapse or descend into Civil War as payback for all the bombs they supplied to Israel killing many Palestinians and all the civvies their military killed since long ago.

BRICS is benign. IRI-Russia-PRC seem to be inclined towards a semi-block of their own. IRI-Russia post 2020 seem have strengthened their military relations a bit more. Russia has thrown IRI under the bus on atleast 6-7 times before so distrust is there. IRI and China have dozens of billion USD worth trade which is increasing. In 2010 it was 1/15 of what it is now.
 

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