Watandar
Trusted Member
Off topic and misleading post.
Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present
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Off topic and misleading post.
Watandar
Trusted Member
Israel shocked by Hezbollah capabilities amid fears of prolonged war
Signs of growing shock within Israeli political and military circles are emerging over Hezbollah’s military capabilities, with officials acknowledging that previous intelligence assessments may hav…
www.middleeastmonitor.com
Israel shocked by Hezbollah capabilities amid fears of prolonged war
Signs of growing shock within Israeli political and military circles are emerging over Hezbollah’s military capabilities, with officials acknowledging that previous intelligence assessments may have significantly underestimated the group’s strength.
The reassessment follows Hezbollah’s forceful entry into the confrontation alongside the ongoing regional war involving Iran, prompting concerns in Israel about the prospect of a prolonged war of attrition.
According to Hebrew media reports and analysis, earlier Israeli evaluations suggested that Hezbollah’s capabilities had weakened, particularly after disruptions to supply lines linked to developments in Syria.
However, recent battlefield developments appear to have contradicted those assumptions.
READ: Houthi- and Hezbollah-linked group threatens to target Barakah nuclear facility in Abu Dhabi
Momen Miqdad, a researcher specialising in Israeli affairs, said a state of surprise now prevails within the Israeli establishment, particularly given Hezbollah’s military performance after months of relative silence.
“Hezbollah maintained silence despite Israeli strikes and assassinations targeting its members in southern Lebanon, which gave the occupation the false impression that its capabilities had declined,” he said.
Miqdad added that Israeli media outlets, including Channel 12, had previously reported intelligence assessments indicating that Hezbollah had become weaker than in previous years.
“These assessments have now been proven inaccurate by developments on the ground,” he said.
The shift in perception has raised concerns within Israel about the scale of Hezbollah’s preparedness and the potential for an extended and costly confrontation along the northern front.
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
Trump says Iran has 'one more chance at peace' as Tehran calls reports of US talks 'fake news'
The president earlier said he'd postponed strikes on Iranian power plants after talks, which the speaker of Iran's parliament denies took place.
www.bbc.co.uk
If the Goverment of Lebanon is not prepared to do anything about the invasion, then why the f--k should anyone else care to do anything about it ????
Order the mobilization of your country, send your army/men down to protect your land and then "ask" for help, or shut the f--k up....
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
There has never been any strong "central government" in Lebanon to begin with which is part of the problem. Hence the civil wars. A reason for this is that Lebanon was specifically carved out of Syria to act like a French Christian fiefdom. Or rather more specifically what is modern-day Lebanon is a Druze Arab creation of this tribe and former ruling family:
Emirate of Mount Lebanon - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Israel has never occupied all of Lebanon. It occupied parts of the south due to geographic proximity.
Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon (1982–2000) - Wikipedia
They certainly prevented Israel from expanding. They are certainly a much better alternative than a militia. Not to mention from a diplomatic/political viewpoint.
I don't think you understand how much Israel has gained politically by labelling all of their enemies as "terrorists". They would not be able to come away with that if they faced or attacked a unified Lebanese military composed of every religious group in Lebanon.
That is because the Lebanese state and military is being hijacked by Hezbollah.
In no sane state would a militia, largely founded by outside powers (Iran) be accepted to run the game as they have been doing. Iran would not accept it.
Well my solution is the only viable solution because the Israelis have the military and political overhand and they will not tolerate Hezbollah regaining their previous influence or power. They will constantly attack them and they will have the support of even the Lebanese government and military.
If they are somehow worried that they will not be properly represented in a "new Lebanon", they need to handle that through political means and this would also require structural changes within Lebanon itself and that can only be solved by Lebanese themselves.
At the end of the day this is all about the weakness of Lebanon itself as a country and the lack of unity among Lebanese factions. The country remains deeply divided despite the Ta'if agreement that ended the civil war.
Take this from someone who has actually visited the country. Beirut to this day is heavily segregated (parts of it) based on religious affiliation. I don't recall ever seeing that anywhere in the Arab world other than in Baghdad during the height of the civil war post-US invasion. So this should tell you about how bad it is in terms of lack of political unity.
That is without mentioning their economic collapse and rampant corruption.
Which ironically prevents the powerful and influential Lebanese diaspora (there are many more Lebanese people outside of Lebanon than within Lebanon) from contributing and rebuilding the country. One of the largest Lebanese diaspora in the region are based in KSA. Many Lebanese Christians in particular. They are not incapable people so this is all due to lack of unity and structural problems that they themselves have created and are not ready/eager to change. Their whole political system is sectarian in nature as well. I see no attempts from them of changing this to electing capable people regardless of origin for instance. So it is difficult to help a society that does not want to help itself.
I wish nothing but the best for Lebanon and the Lebanese people, even the ordinary Hezbollah foot soldiers who wishes no harm/has no hatred for fellow Arab Muslims, KSA and who did not support the killing of their Syrian brothers and sisters on behalf of Al-Assad and who does not agree with the drug smuggling of Hezbollah (completely illegal in Islam) etc. But even if none of this applies, I have respect for those among them who protect their families and land. But Lebanon is much more than just Hezbollah and the Shias of the South with all due respect.
This was written by me (among other posts) in February this year.
Here less than 6 weeks later, Israel is now publicly stating and working towards annexing Lebanese land all the way to the Litani River. Under the disguise and excuse of fighting against a terrorist proxy militia of Iran. In order words all rules are off and Israel can freely carpet bomb and massacre civilians without the West and international community lifting a finger - after all they are fighting against a terrorist militia in the eyes of the world.
The stupid Lebanese government and stupid Hezbollah leadership - both being Lebanese and both their existence tied to the Lebanese state, have for decades failed to join forces truly.
Which will lead to the destruction of Lebanon even further.
We outside Arabs cannot do much or more when the Lebanese themselves are at odds with each other and waring.
KSA brokered the Lebanese civil war with the Ta'if Agreement and have reached out (for decades) to all Lebanese communities as well as hosting large Shia Arab Lebanese communities as well until events in the region limited their numbers greatly due to conflicts of interest and mistrust due to regional events.
Let this be a lesson to any Arab and Muslim nation that lack of internal unity will destroy you.
Some will claim, why do you even care about Hezbollah, they used to slaughter Syrian Muslims and are by large Iranian regime puppets - truth - the leadership is that - but there are many ordinary Hezbollah foot soldiers with their hearts at the right place and who should not suffer due to their leaders stupidity LET ALONE the civilian population of South Lebanon regardless of many of them being brainwashed to blindly support Hezbollah and never question any of their actions. Many of them are also very anti-KSA and Sunni Arab (unfortunately) but that does not make me happy either when they are attacked. Eventually they will realize that ordinary Sunni Arabs are not their enemies and we have never attacked them either to date.
The conclusion is that militias in the Arab world have given us nothing but misery, instability and weakening of state institutions. We are seeing something similar unfold in Iraq next door. Huge segments of the Iraqi Sunni Arabs feel completely alienated and it has reached such a state that every 4th or 5th Iraqi X users that I see (I know that they are not some bots) are advocating for an Iraqi Sunni Arab state to be established.
This is another utter failure that we only see in failed Arab and Muslim (non-Muslim too) states.
We see the same thing in large in Yemen due to militia influence (Houthis) - most if not a large segment of Southerners irrespective of ideology no longer want to remain under the same state. Honestly who can blame them? Would anyone here want to live in such states were largely backward militias are running the show instead of inclusive state institutions? What is the point of states if this is the case? Why not divide those nations into 100's of different parts based on ideology, sect, tribe, clan etc. It is frankly ridiculous and trust me this is coming from a Saudi Arabian and believe me, KSA is a country that, using this retarded logic, could be divided into 100's of parts if we started adopting the "militia model" across the society.
Do the right thing and merge with each other (Lebanese state and Hezbollah) and remove the foreign imposed retarded sectarian model. If you are incapable of this, I am afraid that Syria will have to eventually annex you guys again (you were carved out of historical Syria by the French in order to create a mostly Christian/Maronite Arab state) down the line in order to safeguard their own long-term security and regional Arab security in Sham.
Palestinians living in Lebanon also needs to be given Lebanese citizenship and equal rights until they can return to Palestine or if they are willing to return in the first place. Many are 2th and 3rd generation Palestinian-Lebanese. Some evne 4th generation. But it seems that many in Lebanon fear this as it would give Lebanon a Sunni Arab majority.
It was the same problem when Syrian refugees flooded Lebanon in past conflicts.
Once again we are talking about the same people largely but again we have tons of stupid hatred and rivalry among them.
Same thing occurs between some Yemenis and Saudi Arabians and some Iraqis and Saudi Arabians. It seems that people that are closest to each other also seem to have the biggest disputes. A paradox and another proof that too many Arabs are focused on their respective little local identities that do not matter much in the wider picture and at times are prone to divide us more than unite us.
Well, luckily many youth and the new generation seem a lot wiser in this regard - sadly we will have to wait 2-3 decades if not more for them to gain power seeing the tendency of old dinosaurs to stick to their thrones and places of influence rather than given the new generation more of a chance.
The only dynamic Arab nations that I see currently are KSA (led by young MbS and many young people and officials), some other smaller GCC states (which are limited for many reasons - most importantly human capital and population size) and Syria with a similar mostly vibrant and revolutionary leadership. See it in some elements within Hamas too - mostly local leadership in Hamas. Less so the older lot that are living in Qatar and elsewhere.
Sorry if I missed elements in the Maghreb - less up to date with their international policies there but last time I checked the same old suspects are ruling in Libya post-Gaddafi and same with Tunisia. In Algeria the military leadership continues its rule as well with slightly younger people but far from enough. Not sure about Morocco.
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Blasts from intercepted Iranian missile rattle Keserwan, causing panic
by Naharnet Newsdesk 3 hours ago
Explosions rocked several areas north of Beirut that have so far been spared in the ongoing Israeli war, according to residents and local media, with a military official saying the blasts likely came from an intercepted Iranian missile.
Footage broadcast by the local LBCI channel in the coastal town of Sahel Alma showed a building with shattered windows and shrapnel piercing one of its walls, and a crack in a small wall beside it.
A Lebanese military official told AFP they suspected the culprit was "likely interceptor missiles" targeting "an Iranian cluster missile, and the projectiles have spread to several areas".
He did not specify the missile's target or who intercepted it, but neighboring Israel routinely shoots down incoming fire from Iran.
Media reports said the Iranian missile was likely targeting either the Hamat Air Base or the U.S. embassy in Awkar, while a senior U.S. official told Israel's Channel 12 that the Iranian missile was directed at another country, most likely Cyprus, but disintegrated in the air over Lebanon.
Videos on social media showed smoke rising from several locations.
Local media and residents reported explosions causing panic and confusion, as these regions have thus far remained untouched by the ongoing war.
Israeli strikes have mostly struck Lebanon's south and east, as well as areas in and around Beirut.
Lebanon's state-run National News Agency also attributed the explosions to "interceptor missiles", reporting that one of them fell in the mountainous town of Faitroun.
"A number of citizens sustained minor injuries from flying shrapnel," it added.
Explosions were also heard in Baskanta, Kfar Debian and Qlayaat.
Musings
Administrator
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
Brother, can you please tell me what happened with my latest post in this thread? From what I remember it broke no rules whatsoever nor has this been the case with any of my previous posts in this thread.
The post that was deleted was a long informative post that touched upon quite a few subjects as well as giving my own views about what Lebanon needs to do to restore national unity. I have not received any warnings or anything. Just saw that my post was gone.
Kindly look into it if you can. It would be a great thing as well if we had more of an Arab representation on this forum, ideally someone from Lebanon and all segments of it so we could get their perspective. I already know the local Lebanese perspectives from interactions with them in person and online/social media/Arab media but nevertheless.
@Solomon2
Let us presume that Hezbollah somehow disappears, is reformed or merges with the Lebanese state (institutions - military). WIll Israel refrain from attacking Lebanon and refrain from actively pursuing territorial gains within Lebanon?
Or is this another Israeli power grab for more Arab land to steal in the proximity using Hezbollah as an excuse?
Musings
Administrator
Nay have been deleted in error. I have undeleted it
IMO Hezbollah won't disappear - that's against what I think of as Lebanon's "rules" - but yes, they could turn into a play-by-the-rules political faction in Lebanon.
Israel didn't intervene in Lebanon to conquer territory but to stop bombardments from Lebanon upon its territory, starting back in the 1970s. Since Lebanon won't clean up its act, what do you expect Israelis to do? What did Saudi Arabia do back when it had conflicts with Yemen back in the 1930s and 1960s? - and the Yemenis didn't have rockets then, either.
25-03-2026 | 18:53
A security report "surveys" the distribution of Iranians in Lebanon... to verify their identities
According to information obtained by "An-Nahar," a security apparatus led by a number of officers conducted a survey in recent days that included all members of the Iranian community in Lebanon...
Radwan Aqil
Source: Al-Nahar
Targeting the Ramada Hotel in Beirut (Hossam Shbaro).
The storm surrounding Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani, the refusal to accept his credentials, and the demand for him to leave the country, has exacerbated existing divisions within the government and the country.
Those among the officials, cabinet members, parliamentary blocs, and political parties outside the orbit of the Hezbollah-Amal Movement alliance who do not meet with the government have supported its actions. They say that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a key partner in the ongoing war in the country, and that its officers run operations rooms on Lebanese soil, giving orders to launch missiles and drones and engage in confrontations with Israel in more than one border town south of the Litani River.
Before entering the second version of the war following the assassination of Mr. Ali Khamenei, there was much talk about the infiltration of elements of the “Revolutionary Guard” into several Lebanese areas after the Israeli pressure on them and the targeting of a number of them, in addition to talk about the cooperation of Lebanese with them who provide them with facilitation of movement on the ground and rent places of residence for them, especially since it is no longer a secret that open coordination takes place between the “Guard” in Iran and the elements of the party in the south when the two sides launch missiles towards Israel in close synchronicity in order to occupy the anti-missile platforms and confuse them more.
According to information obtained by “An-Nahar”, a security apparatus led by a number of officers conducted a survey in recent days that included all members of the Iranian community in Lebanon and “filtered” every name of those who entered the country through the airport or from the Syrian border, especially in the hours before the departure of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his escape to Moscow.
All members of the Iranian community residing in Beirut, its southern suburbs, and extending to the south and the Bekaa Valley, were subjected to vetting. This measure included the diplomatic staff at the embassy, all employees in various sectors, and even the wife of a senior Western diplomat representing his country in Lebanon, who is of Iranian origin.
Information indicates that a considerable number of embassy staff, including diplomatic and consular personnel, as well as people working in the cultural, media, and educational sectors, and even sheikhs in religious seminaries, have left with their families for their home country via Iraq, Turkey, and Russia. The number of those leaving increased after the Israeli threats.
Only a small number of diplomatic staff remained to manage the embassy's affairs. According to security sources, this sweep did not reveal the names of any Iranian officers actively involved in military operations, unless they were using passports issued by their country under aliases and working in non-military professions. The sources emphasized that they would not hesitate to pursue any Iranian active within the ranks of the Revolutionary Guard who engages in illegal activities that violate the country's laws and government procedures. If this applies to young members of the party who are under investigation by the military court, then how much more so to Iranians?
Security sources say, "As for the political aspect, this matter is left to the government and its judicial and constitutional bodies to prosecute all those who disrupt security and threaten civil peace."
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
If so Israel has to remove the threat of Hezbollah once and for all and force, alongside the international community, Lebanon to absorb Hezbollah into the Lebanese military and state institutions. I would be fine with that personally as Hezbollah poses no existential threat to Israel and never will be, and the few Israelis that Hezbollah has killed to date only makes Israel kill 1000 more Lebanese while destroying much of South Lebanon. This senseless and useless cycle needs to end. But if the Lebanese Shias and Israel wants this to continue for another few decades - that is their problem. KSA and other Arabs should stay out of it and no longer engage as it is a waste of time.
No, I understand Israel attacking Hezbollah if they get attacked. I have no problem with that nor any love for Hezbollah. Syrians had every right to remove Hezbollah and other militias from Syria as well.
North Yemenis (Kingdom of Yemen) were the aggressors back then and even with direct Italian support they lost to KSA.
Saudi–Yemeni war (1934) - Wikipedia
The lands conquered were never a part of Yemen but independent South Arabian kingdoms (Idrisi Emirate) more closely tied to Hejaz.
Emirate of Asir - Wikipedia
And in any case we are talking about almost 100 year old internal Arab (Arabian) disputes. It is not comparable to the Israel-Hezbollah/Lebanon conflict. Neither relevant today. Throughout history everyone has at times been the aggressor or defender. People have been killing each other forever for a reason.
You also know very well that the regional opposition against Israel (Hezbollah is one small actor) is due to events in Palestine and Israel's continued refusal to compromise and reach a two-state solution. As well as the constant land confiscations, illegal settlements and attacks on civilians in the West Bank and most recently at a unprecedented scale in Gaza.
Anyway, Israel's actions in the region are completely counterproductive as is its unjustified occupation of Palestine. Reaching peace, despite this being completely unrealistic right now, would give the Arab world an enormous favor. No longer would rulers use this conflict as an excuse nor the numerous backward militia groups who are only in it to enrich their leaderships which only helps destabilize Arab countries and the region overall.
I am personally sick and tired of all those useless militias who have not done anything for Palestine nor can they prevent anything now or in the future. They are only making matters worse.
We have Yemen destroyed, Iraq, Lebanon and previously Syria due to this disease. Add Libya as well. Weak/unstable Arab states also only attracts foreign opportunists who are only meddling for their own gains and interests as we have seen for decades by now. Nothing good comes out of it.
Not to mention that it heavily divides locals.
If I was an Israeli I would laugh at the stupidity of those nations and their "leaderships". No wonder that Israel has a free reign in its immediate neighborhood with such incompetent "leaders" as opposition. They can't even agree or live together as unified people in the case of Lebanon yet we have one retarded militia among them (Hezbollah) that somehow for decades have been making up propaganda that they will soon defeat Israel only for Israel to level South Lebanon to the ground killing 1000's of innocent civilians. And we have millions of retarded Arabs and Muslims supporting this behind their computers and smartphones.
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If the Sauds considered the territory they conquered "independent South Arabian kingdoms....closely tied to Hejaz" rather than Yemen, then why did the Sauds kick out the Jews of Najran (giving them only a single day of preparation), rather than hug them as their own?
At what point did Saudi Arabia and Yemen agree to stop fighting?
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
Also it has now been confirmed 1 million times over that Hezbollah leadership does not care one bit for their own supposed people (Lebanese Shia Arabs) nor Lebanon itself. Their constant useless suicide missions only led to outer destruction in South Lebanon and the killing of 1000's of innocent civilians. It puts enormous political (sanctions), economic (Lebanon's entire economy is completely worthless and in tatters - their currency is worthless, enormous debt, no real prospects of improvement) burdens on the entire country. What have they achieved? Nothing other than the destruction and division of Lebanon itself.
They have even achieved mass hatred from their closest kin (Syrians) who want nothing to do with them. Let alone rest of the Arabs who are sick and tired of it, people and leadership alike.
KSA used to keep Lebanon afloat for decades economically while hosting millions of Lebanese throughout the decades, Sunni, Christians, Maronites and Shias alike.
This is your fruit of your "militia culture" and selling out to foreign enemies (Iranian Mullah regime).
They have even achieved mass hatred from their closest kin (Syrians) who want nothing to do with them. Let alone rest of the Arabs who are sick and tired of it, people and leadership alike.
KSA used to keep Lebanon afloat for decades economically while hosting millions of Lebanese throughout the decades, Sunni, Christians, Maronites and Shias alike.
This is your fruit of your "militia culture" and selling out to foreign enemies (Iranian Mullah regime).
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
What relevancy has this 92 year old conflict to events occurring in South Lebanon today or Hezbollah actions or Israeli actions in the region? The answer is nothing.
The land that was conquered was the Emirate of Asir (Idrisid Emirate) that I linked to and which the Wikipedia article clearly talks about in great detail. They were a vassal state of KSA and allied with, previously, the Kingdom of Hejaz.
North Yemen (Kingdom) wanted to annex those territories and attacked KSA. With Italian help. Yet they still lost.
Saudi–Yemeni war (1934) - Wikipedia
Point being, KSA was not the aggressor.
I am not aware of any Jews of Najran being "kicked out". There is a great myth of most Arab Jews being kicked out. Not the case. Most left begrudgingly of their own.
2/3 of all Israeli Jews are Arab Jews or partial Arab Jews. I know that there are many Israeli Jews of Saudi Arabian (South Saudi Arabian) origins which are often labelled as Yemeni Jews who are one of the largest communities in Israel.
This is an Israeli Arab Jew history professor from Baghdad talking about the history of Arab Jews in Iraq and elsewhere in the Arab world.
There is a lot of propaganda from both sides (Arab and Israeli) about events back then. I prefer to read and study history from all perspectives and I don't buy into propaganda that easily. You don't have to convince me that Arab leaders back then committed many mistakes in this regard but so did Israeli/Jewish ones, probably even more, but unlike you, I can admit to it, while I have never seen you criticize Israel or engage in deeper discussions about the region and solutions to the problems. Which is a shame as there are no Jews here other than you and I prefer discussing such topics with Jews rather than outsiders who are not directly involved nor live in the region. This is an Arab-Jewish dispute. Only we can solve it.
Most sane Arabs (who are not brainwashed) have no problem with non-hostile Arab Jews. They are our own people who follow a closely related (Abrahamic) religion (Judaism). Prophet Muhammad (Saws) himself married and Arab Jewish woman. Arabs and Jews lived in peace for millennia. Some of the most famous Jewish dynasties and kings were Arab in origin (Herod the Great) and numerous others. Arabs and Jews worked together and accomplished great things from Al-Andalus to the heartlands of the Arab world during all major Caliphates.
The problem is Zionist extremism, anti-Arab and anti-Muslim Jews. I have no problem with non-hostile, say, Orthodox Jews from the region.
This hatred will not lead to anything good from either side anyway.
There is only one solution. Either a permanent just solution to this almost 100 year old conflict or perpetual conflict that will lead to nothing good for either party or the region as a whole. It is very easy and the ball is in the Israeli court. It is Israel and only Israel alone that can solve this mess once and for all.
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