US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Yasser76]

More nonsense. The only thing you can mention is Khashoggi (1 example since 1932), a 7.5 year old incident that was and is unprecedented. Now the only other argument that I have heard 1000 times, women driving. Which was never a law but a de facto ban in cities. Saudi Arabian women in the countryside never stopped driving.

The ban was retarded anyway and did not exist prior to 1979 (Grand Mosque Seizure) and was protested by the society and Saudi Arabian women for decades prior to its formal removal. Never did the regime in return kill/mass murder those protestors. In fact during Desert Storm in 1991, Saudi Arabian women protested massively by driving towards the Kuwaiti border and into Kuwait. The Saudi Arabian media covered it somewhat but retarded Mullah's (sounds familiar - Iran has been ruled by similar people since 1979) protested and forced the rulers hands.

Speaking about women, KSA women are one of the most educated women in the world with some of the highest STEM graduates globally and within a few years women work participation went from less than 10% to almost 40% of the entire workforce of the country.

And once again, I have never been a blind follower of the regime or claimed that no mistakes were ever committed unlike the Iranian regime bots here who are incapable of criticizing their beloved Iranian regime despite 1 billion evidence of their wrongdoings.

In fact on the old PDF forum you would have seen me writing on numerous occasions that KSA needs to reform and reform such retarded laws (ban on women driving) and open up. Luckily my prayers were heard and KSA has excelled on almost all fronts and reformed on an unprecedented scale globally in the past 10 years. I still remember discussing with numerous clowns on old PDF and elsewhere (in person even) that claimed that KSA will suffer from some kind of civil war and that most people did not support those reforms but the ground reality proved me correct as mostly has been the case.

I have no doubt that I will be right about the future of the Iranian regime and the region as well. We will just have to wait and see.

Yes, we will wait and see if Saudis can fight Iran to the last American....

 

[_Arabia_]

Yes, we will wait and see if Saudis can fight Iran to the last American....

So you are, as usual in this discussion at least, unable to argue against any of my points so you are resorting to troll one-liners. Nice.

This war was not a KSA war but if your enemy (Iranian regime and their regional terrorist proxies) are getting attacked, beaten and severely weakened by third party states (one of them is your historical ally since 1945 - USA), you are not going to complain, are you?

Or are you going to pretend that if say China and Indonesia ganged up on India, you would shed many tears?

I could mention the Taliban (your former allies) as well. Currently you are waging a war against them as well.

So it is halal for Pakistan to wage a war against Muslims in Afghanistan but it is haram for KSA/GCC to help the US materially against our main adversary (Iranian regime).

The contradictions and paradoxes of this world.....

 

[j_hungary]

If 136 people turn up at their job at the same plant

They are stopped by a police line

They are told their is a sniper, but don't worry he will only shoot 1 or 2 of you per day, the rest of you will survive, but we don't know which one of you he will shoot

lol, don't forget about the insurance.....

Trump seems to think you should run the gauntlet just because you were insured.....

 

[j_hungary]

Rob Schneider has a plan for the United States.

The "Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo" actor shared an iconic Kennedy quote on X over the weekend, before urging his followers to consider a new path for the country.

"'Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.' - John F. Kennedy," Schneider wrote online.

"We must once again recommit ourselves to one Nation under God, indivisible. Therefore, we must restore the military draft for our nation’s young people."

Rob Schneider proposes military draft, urges Americans to 'recommit' to traditional values

Actor Rob Schneider invoked a JFK quote on X while calling for restoring the military draft, urging every American to serve two years of service at 18.

www.foxnews.com

View attachment 189082


Roy should go ahead, and die for this worthy cause;

View attachment 189081

That's the world's biggest misquote, the hawk trying to use it to drum up nationalism.

The full JFK quote is actually

And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.

My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.. . .

Finally, whether you are citizens of America or citizens of the world, ask of us here the same high standards of strength and sacrifice which we ask of you. With a good conscience our only sure reward, with history the final judge of our deeds, let us go forth to lead the land we love,

I still remember my Political Science professor extremely pissed when he tried to explain the give/take dynamic of the "famous quote" is to equate the world as to your country, instead of what the world can do for you (take) instead of what you can do (give) for the freedom of man, the quote, the whole quote is pretty left wing, and very grassroot, as you are talking about sacificing yourself for the greater good for ALL people, it cannot be more grassroot than that, but instead it had been used for decades as a furtherment of nationalism

 

[_Arabia_]

In many ways - this war was mostly the work of Israel. The Epstein files must really be potent.

Because Iran is just a small bracket for the US and no threat. The US focus was/is China and other powers (real ones).

As I wrote on a few occasions in this thread - the US and Israel are now forced to end the Iran file one way or another. Either by the removal of the regime, its continued weakening (even more severely) or a land invasion. Because they have opened up a pandora box. The Iranian regime, if they are not as retarded as usual, will race towards nuclear weapons now if they want to secure their safety. This is not something that Israel and the US will be able to tolerate. Therefore it is hard to find a way out of this mess without removing the Iranian regime or severely weakening/crippling it.

Unless somebody has some other theory.

 

[dbc]

I am going to group some of my answers for better presentation, so they don't answer your points sequentially

Strategic Goal level, if Trump/Netanyahu wants the strait open and to freely conduct FoN ops, then you need to hold part of the coast, or the entire coast to be able to do them, but if the Strategic Goal is to have Iranian government give up nuclear ambition and missile technology, as I said, unless the next guy in Iran cave, you will need a regime change.

As for what is the cost of a ground operation. If you are talking about a coastal operation, you are talking about anywhere from 50,000 to 70,000 troops (roughly 10 times the troop we currently had in the region, including the troop that are already in place, not just the Marine MEU or the Airborne) with supporting elements (aviation, artillery, logistics, and so on) so you are probably looking at anywhere 100,000-120,000 men, and this is what make attacking those island make sense, because it can turn them into FOB in support of a coastal operation. And you are looking at anywhere between 15-30% casualty (KIA, WIA, and MIA), harder if only us, easier if the Gulf Countries pitch in.

If we do a regime change, then you will need the Iranian opposition to support that op, you need to unite the Kurds, the Baloch, and the Shahist, which is not going to be easy, and then possibly do a full control operation like what we did in Afghanistan with the Northern Alliance, which back then it took NATO 185,000 troop, and Iran is roughly 3 times the size of Afghanistan (1.6 million sq mile vs 650,000 sq mile), so you are looking at around 500,000-600,000 troop is needed, it's not going to be doable unless we had a sort of alliance going in like we did back in 2001. And you are looking at around 2 to 3 times the casualty number, conservatively if we measure with Afghanistan.

I don't believe there is a way of negotiation, maybe time changes and people change? I don't know, but if I am Iran, I don't think I will EVER want to give up nuclear weapon from now on, and as I said, they now know they can get what they want just by holding Hormuz, unless something had change in the dynamic (like a sort of canal or pipeline) that by-pass the strait, I don't see how Iran will not use it to try to get what they want.

Whether or not Trump backs down is pointless; he can back down, but I don't think it changes anything. Even if he backs down, it wouldn't change the Iranian calculus. It basically is how soon they can resolve this now and get into the next crisis, unless and until a third option is presented to them.

One aspect you don't account for is targeting data. How does Iran acquire the coordinates of ships transiting the strait if they don't have access to the coast nor eyes on the strait? Iranian drones and missiles rely on static coordinates for GPS guidance.
Even the glacial pace of cargo vessels will challenge Iranian ability to accurately target shipping transiting the strait particularly when the traffic is interspersed with Iranian cargo and allied shipping. The US does not need boots on the ground to push Iranians back away from critical choke points. Low cost solutions like FPV drones have successfully demonstrated this in Ukraine.Think MCADT or the Hawkeye platoon, I believe those units will now come out to play.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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[F-22Raptor]

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Heavy air strikes continue

 

[Ali_Baba]

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There is ONE regime. There is NO alternative regime.

Trump is soo desperate know, he is starting to see things and imagine things. Side effect of Trump being a dementia ridden fool I guess.

 

[j_hungary]

One aspect you don't account for is targeting data. How does Iran acquire the coordinates of ships transiting the strait if they don't have access to the coast nor eyes on the strait? Iranian drones and missiles rely on static coordinates for GPS guidance.
Even the glacial pace of cargo vessels will challenge Iranian ability to accurately target shipping transiting the strait particularly when the traffic is interspersed with Iranian cargo and allied shipping. The US does not need boots on the ground to push Iranians back away from critical choke points. Low cost solutions like FPV drones have successfully demonstrated this in Ukraine.Think MCADT or the Hawkeye platoon, I believe those units will now come out to play.

I will give you a hint. A country that starts with R and ends with A is providing targeting data or even Satellite coverage to Iran, that's not even an open secret.

Even if they don't, the blind firing (which Iran had actually been doing in the past month) is probably going to be enough to have the strait choke off, well, at least enough for now.

 

[F-22Raptor]

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Sec Rubio confirms Iran will never be allowed to enact a tolling system in the Strait

 

[F-22Raptor]

There is ONE regime. There is NO alternative regime.

Trump is soo desperate know, he is starting to see things.

Sure one regime maybe, but look at Venezuela. Technically still the same regime, but completely subservient to US demands now.

 

[IceCold]

17 pages and still haven't seen the US perspective! So what is the US perspective and more importantly what are the end goals for the US?
1) Regime change (even the US isn't looking for one anymore)
2) Nuclear weapons ( Iran isn't building one yet and continue to be part of NPT)
3) Hormuz ( it was already open before the war began, so technically US is finding a solution to a problem that wasn't there before the war)
4) Support to Hizbullah and other factions (US cannot stop that)
5) Ballistic missile programme (This one isn't going anywhere because if Iran actually accepts the one thing that is going right for them in the war, that would mean 24/7 at the mercy of Israeli strikes without means to retaliate.
What will the US offer in return? Lifting of sanctions? That is a bad joke because even if Trump does lift, who will stop the next administration from putting them back on?
So please do explain the US perspective of what it aims to achieve and what is it willing to give in return?

 

[dbc]

I will give you a hint. A country that starts with R and ends with A is providing targeting data or even Satellite coverage to Iran, that's not even an open secret.

Even if they don't, the blind firing (which Iran had actually been doing in the past month) is probably going to be enough to have the strait choke off, well, at least enough for now.

again that satellite data will not help since it's isn't real time nor persistent. Neither will it help conclusive identify a target nor work on moving targets. Blind missile fire is unlikely since Iran will not want to waste its limited supply on low probability strikes. Low cost drones can be intercepted with similar low cost anti drone solutions or with platforms with long on station time like the Warthogs. I think it's very achievable, one side has the resources and access to adopt faster than the other.

 

[dbc]

17 pages and still haven't seen the US perspective! So what is the US perspective and more importantly what are the end goals for the US?
1) Regime change (even the US isn't looking for one anymore)
2) Nuclear weapons ( Iran isn't building one yet and continue to be part of NPT)
3) Hormuz ( it was already open before the war began, so technically US is finding a solution to a problem that wasn't there before the war)
4) Support to Hizbullah and other factions (US cannot stop that)
5) Ballistic missile programme (This one isn't going anywhere because if Iran actually accepts the one thing that is going right for them in the war, that would mean 24/7 at the mercy of Israeli strikes without means to retaliate.
What will the US offer in return? Lifting of sanctions? That is a bad joke because even if Trump does lift, who will stop the next administration from putting them back on?
So please do explain the US perspective of what it aims to achieve and what is it willing to give in return?

Iranian resources, Trump wants a piece of that action. The rest is just noise.