Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Fatman17]

https://share.google/PsbqBQC2H0iHKALux

Iran’s defences have been struck but they continue to fire back

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

@delta


oh gosh ... American's and Indians have one thing in common, they can take even the smallest of things and make them sound melodramatic (and make a movie out of it)

Well when one launches a war of aggression ... kill the other with impunity. Degrade and dehumanize them...

The LAST THING THEY SEEK OR WANT IS THEIR HUMANITY!!!

It is the psychology of a beast... a predator. Who's only aim is to preserve optics and nothing else.

Lost a plane worth $100 million that dispensed several million worth of munitions over Iran in a sortie running tens of thousands of dollars... to a rescue mission that almost touched a billion with it's losses to boot!

The takeaway... Orange wants a face saver! At the cost of America on behalf of zion...

Which means any ground incursions coming will be spec Ops... generating high optics and even a hand to play for orange... who as ever has none!

 

[Bahrami]

Listen my friend. And to every other member that are still talking about artesh this, airforce that.
Stop analyzing this conflict based on parameters of conventional warfare.
The fact of the matter is, Iran can not in a million years win a conventional war against the US. No country in the world can. It cant even win a single tactical battle in this war.

Had Iran wasted billions on airforce and going toe to toe with the US airforce, that airforce would have been gone within a day or two. Its just that simple.
Iran is not fighting on US terms. It is fighting an assymetrical battle. A long war of attrition to bleed the enemy economically and politically. It is doing so masterfully by ballistic missiles and drones. Future historians and military analysts will look back at this war for what it was. A masterclass in strategic brilliance by the Iranian state.
Off course, it will come at a huge cost. But the future will be secured, once this war is over. Mark my words.

Iran will win this war, but not based on the metrics you intuitivily think.

Iran did spend billions on the air force over the years. We developed like countles A2A missiles. Take the Fakour-90 as example.

Iran did spend billions in its navy over the years. We build an entire navy, so it can be sunk in ports?

That is my point. It was all a waste, at least in the context of a defensive war.

 

[Gripen9]

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[Kyussis]

First images of the landing zone of the C-130s and their remains after being destroyed by U.S. forces during evac

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The "stuck in the mud" story is looking like BS!

 

[Immortals]

Only Chinese have capabilities they have

Chinese military hasn’t fought an actual war since Korea. On paper based on toys and equipment and industrial capacity they are a near power adversary to the U.S. military especially over next decade.

However, Look at how rusty the Russian military command was in Ukraine war, despite having a prior successful military campaign in Ukraine 2014 and Georgia 2008.

 

[Optical216]

Chinese military hasn’t fought an actual war since Korea. On paper based on toys and equipment and industrial capacity they are a near power adversary to the U.S. military especially over next decade.

However, Look at how rusty the Russian military command was in Ukraine war, despite having a prior successful military campaign in Ukraine 2014 and Georgia 2008.

And us has fought goat herders these past 30 years... Iran haven't fought a real war since 1980s.... And still is effective enough

 

[ShapurII]

First images of the landing zone of the C-130s and their remains after being destroyed by U.S. forces during evac

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What happened to the crews of the C-130s? Nobody talks about that.

 

[gambit]

Airforce is mandatory even it be a weakest one

Does Luxembourg have an air force?

The point is this...

If you are a regional power, such as Spain or Italy or Saudi Arabia or JPN, then your potential threats are your immediate neighbors. That is %99 of the world. You do not make threats "Death to <whoever>" on the other side of the world, especially when that <whoever> can come to your house any time they feel like it. And the US did it once: Iraq.

I expect only %.001 of PDF members here learned what happened to Iran when it comes to air power in general.

 

[Himalayan]

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They will say anything now. Nothing succeeds like success.

 

[The SC]

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[newb3e]

They will say anything now. Nothing succeeds like success.

whats the update on pilot? rescued,captured or dead?

 

[ResurgentIran2]

Iran did spend billions on the air force over the years. We developed like countles A2A missiles. Take the Fakour-90 as example.

Iran did spend billions in its navy over the years. We build an entire navy, so it can be sunk in ports?

That is my point. It was all a waste, at least in the context of a defensive war.

It was not a waste. Iran gained invaluable knowledge in developing its own industry.

Things will be rebuilt. The bright minds, scienfific base and knowledge are still there. The countrys ethos have not been broken.

You cant grind the development of your country to halt, its industries/factories, because some day the country may be bombed.

Iran will rebuild everything that was destroyed, and expand (at greater pace with a vengenance)

 

[Immortals]

I actually tried to run some calculations on your statement to get a ballpark of what can be achieved. Let's assume that each IR-9 has a SWU of 30 per year.

So, based on what I remembered and double-checked, each cascade of Iran's IR-1, IR-2 and IR-6 centrifuges included 164 machines, typically arranged in 30-40 stages and 2-8 machines in parallel.

Since SWU is approximately additive, for IR-9, the total SWU of such a hypothetical configuration would approximately be 4,920 SWU/year. You have two cascades, therefore you get 9,840 SWU/year.

Now you need to compute the total SWU required for enriching that uranium from 3.5% to 90%, assuming a typical tail assay of 0.25%. I cheated here and used Microsoft's copilot for this. The answer is 24,450 SWU. Hence, the time needed for enriching 3.5% LEU into 90% HEU is about 2.47 years. That's about 2 years, 5 months, 2 weeks and 5 days!

-----------------------------------

That aside, even if we assume that Iran has the capability to enrich its LEU stockpile to HEU in less than a month, we'll still have the issue of converting our stockpile from UF6 gas into the uranium metal.

Not sure where you got your math from:

In a Dec. 26 report, the IAEA noted that Iran is now producing approximately nine kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent uranium-235 per month. Iran was producing 60 percent enriched U-235 at a similar rate in early 2023, but decreased production by about two-thirds in June. (See ACT, October 2023.)

It’s even faster to get to 90% once you past the 3.5% mark. And Iran has some amounts at 20% already, so the sprint to 90% will be very short.

In 2023 Iran was making 10KG per month of 60% grade using only a couple of IR-4 cascades if I recall correctly.

NOTE: Also Co-pilot won’t provide you accurate timelines since that can be considering aiding nuclear weapons research. AI safety guardrails will kick in.

 

[ShapurII]

Not sure where you got your math from:

In a Dec. 26 report, the IAEA noted that Iran is now producing approximately nine kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent uranium-235 per month. Iran was producing 60 percent enriched U-235 at a similar rate in early 2023, but decreased production by about two-thirds in June. (See ACT, October 2023.)

It’s even faster to get to 90% once you past the 3.5% mark. And Iran has some amounts at 20% already, so the sprint to 90% will be very short.

In 2023 Iran was making 10KG per month of 60% grade using only a couple of IR-4 cascades if I recall correctly.

NOTE: Also Co-pilot won’t provide you accurate timelines since that be saying aiding nuclear weapons research. AI safety guardrails will kick in.

Iran was feeding its HALEU (20%) stockpile into its centrifuges, not its 3.5% LEU.
Also, sort of irrelevant here because we're solely focusing on 60% enrichment here, but Iran's total capacity before the war was approaching 19,000 SWU/year.

Going from 20% to 60% is exponentially easier than going from 3.5% to 90%.

I double-checked copilot's work. It was correct. Most of this stuff isn't really that confidential as it is taught to undergrad students that take nuclear energy courses. Even URENCO has a website that allows you to calculate all this stuff publicly. I was just too lazy to find its link, that's why I asked Copilot. But here you are:

SWU Calculator | Urenco

Urenco is an international supplier of enrichment services and fuel cycle products for the civil nuclear industry, serving utility customers worldwide who provide low carbon electricity through nuclear generation.

www.urenco.com

If you want to use this calculator, remember that Iran reports the numbers using UF6 instead of U, which is the preferred standard in most American sources.