Why do you think that will happen? I'm really curious. As you said, the F-16V's SABR shares 95% software commonality with the F-35's APG-81, .
The only reason I feel this happens is that the US would not want to give up the bargaining chip it gets because of F-16s
but even this reason isn't strong enough to justify risking the F-35's software security,
not to mention the budget.
Don't get me wrong, I love F-16s, but I think we should not upgrade them anymore and replace them in the 2040s.
logically, it makes the most sense.
The PAF still has a TON of airframes to replace. We tend to get starry eye'd when talking about j-10s and J-35's, but we forget, the PAF still operates F-7's, F-7PG's and Mirages.
While we talk about longer ranged BVRAAM's, a significant portion of the PAF fleet still does not have access to any BVR capability. We're putting lipstick on a pig here.
The F-16 fits in well here. Used airframes can be bought DIRT cheap. Esp now the F-35 phasing out some F-16's, the US is also adding tons to the boneyard every year. Including PW engine variants.
Now imagine you're a PAF decision maker. You can pick up F-16s on the cheap, as EDA's etc, and with an upgrade, have a top of the line fighter, one your techs, your pilots, your instructors and your facilities is intimately familiar with. You can also get them now. EDA F-16s could be refurbed and sent over in months and pressed into service basically immediately.
Aside from this, the US and KSA alongside other partners like Turkey kinda have a vested interest in ensuring the PAF is able to integrate well and easily into their networks. The PAF still maintains quite alot of coalition and international exercise work. If we consider the SMDA for example, an F-16 deployment made sense because it could be integrated into Saudi networks immediately reducing the risk of blue on blue in these tense situations.
I also now think the PAF has played this game very well. We used F-16s to pound terrorists in Afghanistan, then deployed them to protect Saudi interests, which are by extension global and US interests too, this now allows the PAF to make the case that they are not being procured SOLELY for a counterbalance to India, but for coalition work, counterterrorism and also then India. If you look up a DSCA notice, the PAF's F-16s always were pitched from the counterterrorism angle... Its whats needed to be done to prevent hissy fits in certain countries.
Also, now with the Saudis seeing the deployment, i wouldnt be shocked if they bankrolled some of this...