@peagle
THAR COAL doesn't look viable for Pakistan.
Break-even point is insanely high.
Building a 100,000 BPD coal-to-liquids (CTL) plant using Pakistan's Thar Lignite coal will require a significantly higher CAPEX ($8.5 billion to $11.5 billion USD) compared to using typical Indian bituminous coal varieties ($6.0 billion to $8.0 billion USD).The massive cost variance is driven entirely by the poor quality of Thar coal, which demands extensive preprocessing, specialized gasifiers, and outsized infrastructure.
Levelized Cost per Barrel Breakdown (100,000 BPD Plant)
| Cost Component | Indian Coal Plant (Total: $60 – $70) | Thar Lignite Plant (Total: $90 – $105) |
| Coal Feedstock | $20 – $25 (Low cost due to cheap domestic mining by Coal India Limited.) | $25 – $35 (Low base cost, but requires double the tonnage due to massive moisture content.) |
| CAPEX Amortization | $22 – $25 (Based on a $7 Billion plant baseline over a standard 25-year lifecycle.) | $32 – $36 (Higher capital recovery charge due to the $10 Billion inflated plant cost.) |
| Plant OPEX | $15 – $18 (Standard costs for catalysts, ash management, and labor.) | $25 – $30 (Outsized spending on continuous coal drying and heavy water recycling.) |
| Carbon Taxes / Credits | +$3 to $5 (or lower with state subsidies) | +$8 to $10 (Higher emissions per barrel due to drying lignite) |
Key Economic TakeawaysThe Indian Advantage
- []Market Viability: With standard global crude oil hovering between $75 and $95 per barrel, an Indian CTL plant operating at $65/barrel yields a comfortable profit margin.[]Government Subsidy Cushion: India’s financial incentives and viability gap funding can shave an extra $5 to $7 per barrel off the CAPEX amortization cost, lowering the actual breakeven even further.
The Thar Challenge
- []High Breakeven Risk: At $95+ per barrel, a Thar-based plant is highly vulnerable to international oil price drops. If global crude drops below $80, the plant runs at a massive net loss.[]The Scale Dilemma: To remain viable, a Thar plant requires massive, uninterrupted mining scale to push raw lignite extraction costs to absolute rock bottom.
This is an extremely childish post, you people really need help with your deranged negative obsession with Pakistan.
When Mr Bengal sahib with regards after every statement suggested India should also go for such projects, i responded with a like.
We should all develop together, for our own benefits. Typical of Indians, you have created stupidity and converted this into a India vs Pakistan discussion, this is the height of your hateful stupidity.
It's pathetic. But i'll answer.
Please answer again with Chatgpt, i'm more then happy to take on both of you. Artificial intelligence my backside.
Do you know why there are tens of thousand of PhD's? If truth was really that simple, let's just get one PhD in every subject, and sub PhDs, in sub categories and be done with it.
It because truth is hidden in various points of arguments and various angles of facts.
Your idiotic calculation takes a backstop to logic.
Here is what logic says,
the value of any project takes into account different variables, with regards to this project, primary amongst which are;
volume of reserves,
quality of reserves,
potentiality of extracting those reserves and
communication infrastructure to the markets.
Everything else is just noise.
Pakistan has massive coal reserves, they are not scattered, they are concentrated in a small area of the country.
So, volume is a pass.
The quality of those reserves is low, but extracting oil from coal isn't dependant on quality of the coal, it effects the efficiency, but technology is there to counteract such deficiencies. German coal reserves are also of low quality and they had no problem using technology for these projects. Plus, till recently they produced the entirety of their electricity from those same crappy quality coal.
So, quality with regard to the usefulness for this project is also a pass.
Those reserves are easily accessible, using open pit mining, millions of tonnes are already being mined.
So, potentiality of being able to mine those reserves is also a pass.
These reserves sit close to Pakistan's main north south highways, north south railway lines and Pakistan's two main ports. There already exists a suitable road and rail network in the area, it requires minimal efforts to expand the infrastructure to the project sites.
Everything is a pass.
The only variable is profitability.
80,000 barrels per day, translates into $8 billion dollars per annum foreign exchange savings. You add petrochemicals and other downstream industries and you magnify the value of the entire project.
Profitability is also dependant on the accounting formula being used.
Production cost, including everything $10 selling cost $10, that's break even, let's assume a lose.
Who's going to calculate everything else. The value it brings to the domestic economy, the foreign exchange reserves saved, the massive increase in taxation due to the nature of overall tax collection, and so on.
If you conduct an overall balanced accounting exercise, even by your childish calculations, it still become profitable.
Such a project resolves Pakistan's only and constant economic challenges, Balance of Payments problem, which is directly linked to foreign exchange reserves.
The issue here isn't the suitability of the project itself, it's the willingness and competency of various leadership involved. That's a matter of choice, not project capability or suitability.
Pakistan has proven time and again that when it chooses to do something, it usually succeeds.
Lastly, I would appreciate that you people grow the heck up and not turn everything into a India vs Pakistan discussion, it's just stupid.
