NeptunesVortex
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India draws $136.38 billion in forex inflows, bolstering support for rupee
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India has over 700 bn in foreign reserves and low domestic inflation. They could easily spend some dollars to support the currency if they wanted to. What they are doing is textbook currency manipulation to keep exports competitive in a tough global trade environment.
The cost of doing that is falling down global GDP rankings despite having a high GDP growth rate, but what really matters is whether nominal per capita income in the domestic currency is outpacing domestic inflation or not and India has kept inflation under control by fixing the price of gasoline and diesel.
Most exporting nations prefer a weak currency. This has been the standard playbook of Japan, China and South Korea , all of which have undervalued currencies and are regularly accused of being currency manipulators by the US. Now India has also joined them and I guess it worked for them since they were able to maintain high GDP and export growth despite 50% tariffs by the US.India FX currency was on terminal decline defending rupee and had to introduce diaspora deposits offering 7.5% interest. Temporary relief to falling rupee. They can't get out of this by spending FX as foreign investors withdraw at record pace.
Most exporting nations prefer a weak currency. This has been the standard playbook of Japan, China and South Korea , all of which have undervalued currencies and are regularly accused of being currency manipulators by the US. Now India has also joined them and I guess it worked for them since they were able to maintain high GDP and export growth despite 50% tariffs by the US.
The one downside of a weak currency is importing inflation, but India controls the domestic price of gasoline, diesel and other essential commodities. In USD terms, India has actually experienced very high deflation since the price of fuel measured in USD has actually declined significantly at a time when the competitors have seen huge price increases, thus increasing export competitiveness. If Central bank reserves have risen significantly while the currency has depreciated, that is a tell-tale sign that it is deliberate trade policy and in, India's case, the low inflation rate despite the currency depreciation makes it clear that is what is happening.
