RealNapster
Elite Member
You are right I was joking. I am on this (and it's older version) defence forum for 12 years now. I am supposed to know by now what MALE is.
Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
You are right I was joking. I am on this (and it's older version) defence forum for 12 years now. I am supposed to know by now what MALE is.
I hope what this really means is that a surrender is coming, but who knows.
Starlord
Trusted Member
We really need to add a Angry face emoji..
Mehdipersian
Trusted Member
The global oil supply crisis has begun
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the destruction of the Saudi pipeline, and the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the amount of oil entering the world market has decreased sharply, and the continuation of this trend will have a severe impact on the world economy.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR):
The United States is now on the verge of a critical point, and the SPR inventory has reached a dangerous limit:
· Current inventory: About 289.7 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982.
· Critical point: Experts consider the threshold of 250 million barrels to be the minimum level for safe and sustainable operations.
· Forecast: With the final release of another 39 million barrels, the inventory will fall to about 243 million barrels, crossing the critical threshold.
Global Reserves: The Critical Point in September 2026
At the global level, analyses also show that the crisis will reach its peak this month (September):
· Forecast: JPMorgan had warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global reserves will reach a critical level of 6.8 billion barrels in September 2026, which means the end point of the system's operational capacity.
· Current situation: Reports for September 2026 show that global reserves have decreased from 8.4 billion barrels in February to about 6.8 billion barrels, and this critical point has already been achieved.
Why and how is the crisis happening?
The logic of the crisis is different at the US and global levels:
US level (SPR): crossing the red line in about 2-4 weeks
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) currently stands at about 2.987 million barrels. According to the plan, the US must release another 39 million barrels of this stock to meet its commitments under the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated plan. With this release, the SPR stock will fall to about 2.43 billion barrels. This level falls below the 2.5 billion barrel threshold that experts consider the “minimum safe level for operations.” At the current rate of release, this will happen in about 2-4 weeks.
Global level: crossing the “operational floor” has already occurred
At the global level, JP Morgan has defined two thresholds: the “operational stress level” (7.6 billion barrels) and the “operational floor” (6.8 billion barrels). The September 2026 reports confirm that both predictions have come true: global reserves have fallen from 84 billion barrels in February to around 68 billion barrels in September, the “operational floor.” This means that the world has passed the tipping point.
What happens if the tipping point is crossed?
Crossing these thresholds has a cascade of catastrophic consequences that go beyond just price increases:
1. Physical collapse of infrastructure, not just oil shortages
The most important and dangerous consequence is the breakdown of the distribution system. When reserves reach the “operational floor,” pressure in pipelines drops, refineries cannot operate, and the physical distribution network begins to collapse. In this case, the price is no longer an efficient signal, because there is no product to buy or sell. JP Morgan likened this situation to “blood pressure” that, when it drops, the entire system fails.
2. Oil price jumps to critical levels ($150-200)
The price of oil is currently around $107, but analysts warn that as the last reserves are depleted, the price will jump to $150-200 per barrel. This price level will definitively trigger a global recession.
3. Global recession and debt crisis
Organizations such as the United Nations and the OECD have predicted that this crisis will reduce global economic growth to 2.5% (the lowest level since the Corona era) and push some economies into recession. Rising transportation and production costs will create a new wave of stagflation that traditional monetary and fiscal tools are ineffective at dealing with.
4. Rationing and social unrest
Fuel rationing will begin in vulnerable countries. Asian countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the Philippines, which are heavily dependent on fuel imports, will face acute shortages within weeks. These shortages could quickly escalate into social and political unrest.
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the destruction of the Saudi pipeline, and the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the amount of oil entering the world market has decreased sharply, and the continuation of this trend will have a severe impact on the world economy.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR):
The United States is now on the verge of a critical point, and the SPR inventory has reached a dangerous limit:
· Current inventory: About 289.7 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982.
· Critical point: Experts consider the threshold of 250 million barrels to be the minimum level for safe and sustainable operations.
· Forecast: With the final release of another 39 million barrels, the inventory will fall to about 243 million barrels, crossing the critical threshold.
Global Reserves: The Critical Point in September 2026
At the global level, analyses also show that the crisis will reach its peak this month (September):
· Forecast: JPMorgan had warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global reserves will reach a critical level of 6.8 billion barrels in September 2026, which means the end point of the system's operational capacity.
· Current situation: Reports for September 2026 show that global reserves have decreased from 8.4 billion barrels in February to about 6.8 billion barrels, and this critical point has already been achieved.
Why and how is the crisis happening?
The logic of the crisis is different at the US and global levels:
US level (SPR): crossing the red line in about 2-4 weeks
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) currently stands at about 2.987 million barrels. According to the plan, the US must release another 39 million barrels of this stock to meet its commitments under the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated plan. With this release, the SPR stock will fall to about 2.43 billion barrels. This level falls below the 2.5 billion barrel threshold that experts consider the “minimum safe level for operations.” At the current rate of release, this will happen in about 2-4 weeks.
Global level: crossing the “operational floor” has already occurred
At the global level, JP Morgan has defined two thresholds: the “operational stress level” (7.6 billion barrels) and the “operational floor” (6.8 billion barrels). The September 2026 reports confirm that both predictions have come true: global reserves have fallen from 84 billion barrels in February to around 68 billion barrels in September, the “operational floor.” This means that the world has passed the tipping point.
What happens if the tipping point is crossed?
Crossing these thresholds has a cascade of catastrophic consequences that go beyond just price increases:
1. Physical collapse of infrastructure, not just oil shortages
The most important and dangerous consequence is the breakdown of the distribution system. When reserves reach the “operational floor,” pressure in pipelines drops, refineries cannot operate, and the physical distribution network begins to collapse. In this case, the price is no longer an efficient signal, because there is no product to buy or sell. JP Morgan likened this situation to “blood pressure” that, when it drops, the entire system fails.
2. Oil price jumps to critical levels ($150-200)
The price of oil is currently around $107, but analysts warn that as the last reserves are depleted, the price will jump to $150-200 per barrel. This price level will definitively trigger a global recession.
3. Global recession and debt crisis
Organizations such as the United Nations and the OECD have predicted that this crisis will reduce global economic growth to 2.5% (the lowest level since the Corona era) and push some economies into recession. Rising transportation and production costs will create a new wave of stagflation that traditional monetary and fiscal tools are ineffective at dealing with.
4. Rationing and social unrest
Fuel rationing will begin in vulnerable countries. Asian countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the Philippines, which are heavily dependent on fuel imports, will face acute shortages within weeks. These shortages could quickly escalate into social and political unrest.
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Indos
INT'L MOD
I dont get on many foreign journalist like maybe coming from Indian, Singaporean, etc working in Reuters, Bloomberg, etc
Saying Indonesia is vulnerable is baseless as they have said that since the start of the war
Indonesia still produce lot of oil, sufficient with gas and also main gas exporter in Asia Pacific, biggest coal exporter in the world, we also dont import diesel anymore due to our B50 biodiesel program (supported by palm oil supply)
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Indonesia produces some 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), but its consumption is far above that, at around 1.6 million barrels daily.
A lot of Indonesia's imports of crude oil have typically come from the Middle East. But the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption forced the biggest economy in Southeast Asia to look for alternative supply, including such from Russia.
"Indonesia's strategy to diversify its crude import basket with imports from Russia is backed by supply economics, refinery compatibility and medium-term energy security logic, not just opportunism around the Middle East crisis," Rystad Energy analyst Prateek Panday told the Business Times in April.
Around the same time, Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy, Yuliot Tanjung, said that the country would import 150 million barrels of crude from Russia this year.
Indonesia Receives First Russian Crude Shipment Under April Supply Deal | OilPrice.com
Indonesia took delivery of its first Russian crude cargo under an April supply deal, diversifying imports after Middle East supply risks.
oilprice.com
Indonesia a Key Russian Partner in the Asia-Pacific: Putin - RRI.co.id
Russian President Vladimir Putin, has described Indonesia as his country's key partner in the Asia-Pacific. He made the remarks during a meeting with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Vladivostok, Russia, on Thursday, September 3, 2026.
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Lulldapull
Trusted Member
Its probably a lot worse than they're admitting no?
Pakistan needs to distance itself from this total disaster of a situation.
Believe me, its for the best.
This bodes well for Iran. A huge strategic disaster awaits the US based on Trump's tweets.
