Pakistan’s push to replace legacy aircraft

[m52k85]

It always has been and always will be a continous process, PAF will have to constantly be inducting new aircraft all the time, as when all the above is delivered our older JF-17s and F-16s will need replacing, so number will need to be higher by 2030s

Main issues may be

1) F-16 fleet may have to dwindle with no "V" upgrade in the pipeline. bY 20230s AMRAAM and APG-68 will be obsolete.

2) How many Block 1/2 Thunders will get the Block III upgrade? All of them? just Block 2s?

3) By then F-7 and Mirage should be fully gone, that is at least 5 Sqds of planes, the Mirages being valuable in Strike/Attack role.

Assuming total retirement of Mirage/F-7 fleet and partial retirement of F-16/JF-17 feet PAF may need another 300 planes by early 2030s.


Possible fleet in 2035 could be (Assuming 18 plane sqd size)

108 - J-10C
108 - J-31
108 - JF-17 Block III
54 - KAAN
54 - F-16

Above would give PAF 400 plus aircraft punch and still have a good Western/Chinese mix which is also a goal of PAF

Why did you decrease F-16 fleet from 74 to 54. The PAF is in the mood to use all but the Jordanian ones for a very long time. Kaiser Tufail narrated his last visit to PAF when he got a joy ride in one of the Falcons, that with the structural upgrades, these airframes are good for 16,000 hours or 80 years. Of course we know the Falcon Star upgrades were meant to guarantee 8k hours (from inception, its not a 0 meter program), and only recently has LHM started talking about a 12k design life Falcon, but we never know what PAF is playing at. They may have managed to sneak in a few critical airframe parts/ joints. Suffice to say 61 of PAF's F-16s will do 12,000 hours or 60 years.

1985 + 60 = 2045, is when PAF will seek replacements for no, 9 and 11 and then no. 5 a decade or two later.

no. 29 F-16s will go as the remaining MLU fleet attrits and/or becomes maintenance heavy - probably around 2040.

no.19 ADFs already had an average of 4k hours on them, we would be luck to get 8k hours out of them or 20 years, so they would need replacement around 2033ish.

 

[Abid123]

View attachment 35682

But those americunts wont sanction Israel though.

 

[CynicalPakistaniCritic]

Capability of one JF-17 lll = at least 2-3 F-7 or Mirage as per the ACM.

It's also about maintaining a minimum number of fighter jets. India is also upgrading her own fleet to meet modern capabilities.

 

[FuturePAF]

The JF-17 PFX really needs to be centered around the best engine Pakistan can get for it in its weight class. Hopefully the WS-19 will be ready soon, because the engine specs aren’t that much different from the original YF-16 F100-PW-200 specs.

The PAF needs the JF-17 to be, they way Sweden uses its Gripen E, their everything fighter. The J-10 and F-16 can be the top of the spear but the bulk of the fleet needs to be almost right up their with these birds in all but weight of weapons carried and size of their radars.

 

[harpy1]

It always has been and always will be a continous process, PAF will have to constantly be inducting new aircraft all the time, as when all the above is delivered our older JF-17s and F-16s will need replacing, so number will need to be higher by 2030s

Main issues m


Possible fleet in 2035 could be (Assuming 18 plane sqd size)

108 - J-10C
108 - J-31
108 - JF-17 Block III
54 - KAAN
54 - F-16

Above would give PAF 400 plus aircraft punch and still have a good Western/Chinese mix which is also a goal of PAF

That is some serious modernisation programme

In 10 years 250 brand new fighters with 150 fifth generation fighters
Some serious outlay there like 20 billion dollars worth assuming j10 go for 50 milion each and the fifth gen fighters 100 million each ...

Upgrading another Thunders must 20 million each ...

Just to give you contrast what we expect to happen to your rival across the border
At best scenario

Tejas mark1a 180 planes 50m each around 10 billion dollar
At best 40 mark 2 Tejas delivered at 70million each at 3billon
Upgrade of 80/100 su30mki at 75 ,million to super mki 8billion dollars
Total cost 21 billion dollars

Will India answer your massive induction with a fifth generation fighter not by 2035

Amca will be close to IOC more likely 2040
India may go rafale F5 but funds dependant

Congrats you will have achieved air supermacy

One thing to note every single upgrade or induction in Indian Airforce is indengious from within India by Indian companies not buying from.
outside assuming no rafales purchased ...That makes things far easier for IAF
And our defense budget is about six times yours and by 2035 8 times based on trajectory of finances..

Every one of your inductions is imported so totally reliant overseas production and delivery schedules. You will.also need to arrange for Pak money to leave your shores at much much bigger outlay relatively ..

 

[RescueRanger]

I’m just glad we got rid of the flying pipe.

 

[Abid123]

More J-10C and more J-10C needed.

 

[m52k85]

That is some serious modernisation programme

In 10 years 250 brand new fighters with 150 fifth generation fighters
Some serious outlay there like 20 billion dollars worth assuming j10 go for 50 milion each and the fifth gen fighters 100 million each ...

Upgrading another Thunders must 20 million each ...

Just to give you contrast what we expect to happen to your rival across the border
At best scenario

Tejas mark1a 180 planes 50m each around 10 billion dollar
At best 40 mark 2 Tejas delivered at 70million each at 3billon
Upgrade of 80/100 su30mki at 75 ,million to super mki 8billion dollars
Total cost 21 billion dollars

Will India answer your massive induction with a fifth generation fighter not by 2035

Amca will be close to IOC more likely 2040
India may go rafale F5 but funds dependant

Congrats you will have achieved air supermacy

One thing to note every single upgrade or induction in Indian Airforce is indengious from within India by Indian companies not buying from.
outside assuming no rafales purchased ...That makes things far easier for IAF
And our defense budget is about six times yours and by 2035 8 times based on trajectory of finances..

Every one of your inductions is imported so totally reliant overseas production and delivery schedules. You will.also need to arrange for Pak money to leave your shores at much much bigger outlay relatively ..

This is how the base scenario for coming years looks like, IAF vs PAF acquisitions and cutting edge fleet ratios:


The coloured parts will have numbers to show acquisitions that, in time, will be added by IAF and how the PAF will counter them. The main point to know is PAF will not let the ratio of importance slip beyond 1.5 in the coming decade, even with all you mention coming to fruitation. You will also note how the acquisition pipeline is much more realistic for PAF compared to what a lot of fan boys here are dreaming off.

 

[Yasser76]

That is some serious modernisation programme

In 10 years 250 brand new fighters with 150 fifth generation fighters
Some serious outlay there like 20 billion dollars worth assuming j10 go for 50 milion each and the fifth gen fighters 100 million each ...

Upgrading another Thunders must 20 million each ...

Just to give you contrast what we expect to happen to your rival across the border
At best scenario

Tejas mark1a 180 planes 50m each around 10 billion dollar
At best 40 mark 2 Tejas delivered at 70million each at 3billon
Upgrade of 80/100 su30mki at 75 ,million to super mki 8billion dollars
Total cost 21 billion dollars

Will India answer your massive induction with a fifth generation fighter not by 2035

Amca will be close to IOC more likely 2040
India may go rafale F5 but funds dependant

Congrats you will have achieved air supermacy

One thing to note every single upgrade or induction in Indian Airforce is indengious from within India by Indian companies not buying from.
outside assuming no rafales purchased ...That makes things far easier for IAF
And our defense budget is about six times yours and by 2035 8 times based on trajectory of finances..

Every one of your inductions is imported so totally reliant overseas production and delivery schedules. You will.also need to arrange for Pak money to leave your shores at much much bigger outlay relatively ..

Unsure why you jumped in here, this if a PAF Modernisation thread, do you not get enough attention on the IAF threads?

 

[Yasser76]

Why did you decrease F-16 fleet from 74 to 54. The PAF is in the mood to use all but the Jordanian ones for a very long time. Kaiser Tufail narrated his last visit to PAF when he got a joy ride in one of the Falcons, that with the structural upgrades, these airframes are good for 16,000 hours or 80 years. Of course we know the Falcon Star upgrades were meant to guarantee 8k hours (from inception, its not a 0 meter program), and only recently has LHM started talking about a 12k design life Falcon, but we never know what PAF is playing at. They may have managed to sneak in a few critical airframe parts/ joints. Suffice to say 61 of PAF's F-16s will do 12,000 hours or 60 years.

1985 + 60 = 2045, is when PAF will seek replacements for no, 9 and 11 and then no. 5 a decade or two later.

no. 29 F-16s will go as the remaining MLU fleet attrits and/or becomes maintenance heavy - probably around 2040.

no.19 ADFs already had an average of 4k hours on them, we would be luck to get 8k hours out of them or 20 years, so they would need replacement around 2033ish.

Issue may not be airframe life as more to do with avionics. Even Block 52 will have hard time against Tejas, Rafale and upgraded SU-30MKI

 

[m52k85]

Issue may not be airframe life as more to do with avionics. Even Block 52 will have hard time against Tejas, Rafale and upgraded SU-30MKI

Yes, but they will still be part of the fleet in 2035, albeit relegated to second line defence, much like the PGs in present year. The block 52s will still have a significant ISR / Ground attack capability, and will function like the ROSE Mirages are right now.

 

[Archie]

I am aware of that, former ACM stated 400 fighters, also capability of enemy's fighter is also increasing (albeit very slowly)

Isn't that good for maintenance of peace

Over the next 10 years
IAF will retire 40 Mig21 bison and 120+ Jaguars
While Inducting 180 Tejas MK1A
That means that our fighter number will barely go up from 610 to 630 in ten years
Unless the Government decides to finalize MRFA in next 2 years or order 36-54 Rafales like we expect them to do since we don't have 25 billion USD for 114 Rafales

 

[Justin TruDont]

Pakistan doesn't want to put all it's eggs in one basket as it did with the USA in the past and got burned by the sanctions which were partly Pakistan's doing. It could happen again with the Chinese hence the Turkish option is a important relationship to have. HST Turkey has also learnt it's lesson with sanctions and most certainly is going for indigenous aircraft engines both for the T-129 and KAAN.

USA Has a tendency to apply Sanctions , against countries not toeing their line.

Under what circumstances will China apply Sanctions on Pakistan.

Given your brotherly relationship

 

[Fatman17]

USA Has a tendency to apply Sanctions , against countries not toeing their line.

Under what circumstances will China apply Sanctions on Pakistan.

Given your brotherly relationship

Every country has their interests.

 

[Zarvan]

Aircraft	Quantity
JF-17 Thunders	149
J-10C Indus Dragon	20
F-16 Falcon	74
J-31 Gyrfalcon
L-15 (LIFT)

So, Pakistan Air Force intends acquire a total of 157 fighter aircraft consisting Thunders, Indus Dragons, Gyrfalcons and L-15s by 2030 at the latest.

Yes and J 10 final number won't be less than 100. How many BLOCK III we would induct that is the question and what is JF 17 PFX.