Why did you decrease F-16 fleet from 74 to 54. The PAF is in the mood to use all but the Jordanian ones for a very long time. Kaiser Tufail narrated his last visit to PAF when he got a joy ride in one of the Falcons, that with the structural upgrades, these airframes are good for 16,000 hours or 80 years. Of course we know the Falcon Star upgrades were meant to guarantee 8k hours (from inception, its not a 0 meter program), and only recently has LHM started talking about a 12k design life Falcon, but we never know what PAF is playing at. They may have managed to sneak in a few critical airframe parts/ joints. Suffice to say 61 of PAF's F-16s will do 12,000 hours or 60 years.It always has been and always will be a continous process, PAF will have to constantly be inducting new aircraft all the time, as when all the above is delivered our older JF-17s and F-16s will need replacing, so number will need to be higher by 2030s
Main issues may be
1) F-16 fleet may have to dwindle with no "V" upgrade in the pipeline. bY 20230s AMRAAM and APG-68 will be obsolete.
2) How many Block 1/2 Thunders will get the Block III upgrade? All of them? just Block 2s?
3) By then F-7 and Mirage should be fully gone, that is at least 5 Sqds of planes, the Mirages being valuable in Strike/Attack role.
Assuming total retirement of Mirage/F-7 fleet and partial retirement of F-16/JF-17 feet PAF may need another 300 planes by early 2030s.
Possible fleet in 2035 could be (Assuming 18 plane sqd size)
108 - J-10C
108 - J-31
108 - JF-17 Block III
54 - KAAN
54 - F-16
Above would give PAF 400 plus aircraft punch and still have a good Western/Chinese mix which is also a goal of PAF
1985 + 60 = 2045, is when PAF will seek replacements for no, 9 and 11 and then no. 5 a decade or two later.
no. 29 F-16s will go as the remaining MLU fleet attrits and/or becomes maintenance heavy - probably around 2040.
no.19 ADFs already had an average of 4k hours on them, we would be luck to get 8k hours out of them or 20 years, so they would need replacement around 2033ish.