Russia-Ukraine War - News, Discussions & Updates
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F-22Raptor
Elite Member
Russian tank sent to Mars
F-22Raptor
Elite Member
What we’re headed for post settlement is a North/South Korea type scenario where the vast majority of Ukraine and government are aligned with the West and NATO forces are in Ukraine by the tens of thousands.
Thats a massive victory for the US/Ukraine and huge defeat for Russia. Even with the loss of some territory, Ukraine still comes out strategically ahead.
Yommie
Elite Member
Fair enough. It's a win win for both sides. Russia's mainland once again spans more than 8,000 km from Kamchatka to Crimea. The US sets up military bases in Ukraine.
Harbyharb
Registered Member
At the current rate of loss, and Russia's industrial base fully mobilised, its numerical and qualitative advantage in equipment and personnel mounting (especially in artillery pieces and trained soldiers), I don't think Russia would settle for an East/West split. At the very least, Russia would likely attempt to seize part of Kyiv and Ukraine's access to the black sea.
Russia has repeatedly staged claims on cities west of the Dnipro, most notably Kherson and Odesa. And unless a force intervenes to offset the increasing parity of power caused by asymmetric attrition, there's nothing that could convince Russia to enter a ceasefire.
Yommie
Elite Member
Exactly. And with millions of small drones which can wipe out millions of men in a short period of time, Ukraine's manpower advantage over Russia has been neutralized.
Harbyharb
Registered Member
Drones have little to do with the attrition of personnel. For every footage you see where FPV drones successfully hit and allegedly wound or kill frightened soldiers, there can be dozens of incidences that you don't see where these amateur improvised products simply miss. Even against armoured vehicles, with these FPV drones carrying either HEAT warheads from infantry weapons to engineering shaped charges, they are primarily capable of only incapacitating vehicles rather than injuring the crew.
Attrition is still primarily caused by artillery fire, both via howitzers as well as mortars and AGSs. The main issue behind Ukraine's diminishing manpower is prolonged frontline service and lack of training. The current mode of Ukrainian use of conscripts is appalling, to say the least, where conscripts are hastily organized in "independent infantry companies", with next to no vehicle and fire support, and attached to existing units as chaff units, which themselves, such as 47th Mechanized, have complained on social media that they have served consecutively on the front for more than 100 days without rotation. From available footage, both Ukrainian and Russian, frontline infantry formations are generally dense platoons that could contain up to more than a dozen men that generally lack the ability to further scatter and act independently in 2-3 man fire teams, in stark contrast with expendable Russian units that increasingly move in smaller and smaller units.
A combination of untrained conscripts, large frontline units, and horrible artillery disparity, contributed to the diminishing of Ukrainian numerical superiority, not drones.
F-22Raptor
Elite Member
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
that's just not true ... Russia gained more territory in 48 hours (100sqkm) than Ukraine did in its entire 2023 counteroffensive.
F-22Raptor
Elite Member
Russias rate of loss is at the point where in 18-24 months they will no longer have the stockpiles necessary to replace those losses. Russian new production is nowhere near high enough to replace its armor losses. Its artillery pieces have also been heavily depleted. At least 50%. Of its prewar towed and SPG howitzers have been pulled from storage.
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