Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked

[liuzhengdong]

Dude, do you even know what is RO/RO ship and how big of a clearance (Draft) you need to use those? Unless you are talking about landing in a gangway or a dock, Ro/Ro ship is not going to work because it does not have a flat hull, you are going to run aground seabed near the beachhead before you can storm the beach.

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This is a RORO Ship

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This is a LST

Can you see the difference?

And lol, you probably never even go on a ship full gear, you can barely able carry your rifle and your pack with you, and you are talking about each soldier carry two Switchblade like Drone......You are probably gonna drown before you reach ashore..... yes, laden your troop in the sea when they storm the beach, what can possibly go wrong??

10 kilometers away from the coast, the amphibious vehicles in the ro-ro cargo ship are launched directly into the water through the springboard. The British expeditionary Falland Islands landing fleet includes 7 ro-ro cargo ships.
Your thinking is still stuck in World War II. Now landing warfare is amphibious assault vehicles, hovercraft, helicopters, and drones.

 

[Han Patriot]

10 kilometers away from the coast, the amphibious vehicles in the ro-ro cargo ship are launched directly into the water through the springboard. The British expeditionary Falland Islands landing fleet includes 7 ro-ro cargo ships.
Your thinking is still stuck in World War II. Now landing warfare is amphibious assault vehicles, hovercraft, helicopters, and drones.
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Genius does not understand that Taiwan is only 200km from mainland, the industrial might of the whole Republic can be concentrated and support that one area then we will see if US can 'destroy' the whole Chinese fleet. Our artillery and MLRS can practically fire from the Mainland and hit Taipei.

 

[SaadH]

Can USA defeat China when China claims an Island which near the Chinese coast and there are ethnic Chinese people living in Taiwan who speak Mandarin as well?

Answer is:
Probably Not.

US will NOT come to fight China over Taiwan.

It will certainly take out the TSMC fab in preemptive strike but there's no way in hell is it exposing its carriers to be taken out by Chinese.

 

[liuzhengdong]

Dude, that's an air launch platform, can your anti-ship missile hit an aircraft at that range?

On the other hand, you seem to think DF whatever can penetrate US Navy Air Defence at ease. They are called "MISS"ile for a reason, at the very best of day, you are looking at <20% accuracy rate.



Yes, they probably would paint those launcher bright yellow and just stuck there and not moving them around so you can easily hit it.

I mean, I was in the military intelligence business, even as good as the US intelligence capability, I can't say I know hundred percent what the enemy is up to. And you are quoting some "think tank"




Sure, how?

It's one thing to monitor all of them (No one have that capability to do that, ask the Russian, and they have a better intel net than the PLA) It's another thing to try to hit them all at once, you think war is that simple and can win just pressing some button and firing some missile.

This is impressive

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DO you know how much work behind the camera to make this actually happen? I do.


Yes, yes yes, just hit them and shoot them all down, right?

Again, this is not about how many missile you have or whatever you want to do, you failed to comprehend the basic level of strategy and tactics, if this is just about missile and aircraft, the war in Ukraine would end in probably 3 months.

Again, in war, attacker has to focus on attacking their objective, and the defender have to focus on defending their objective, which make the attacker predictable, because no matter what you do, you need to come out and attack, while the defender can just lying in wait. You can say "you can hit US carrier with X amount of missile" how did you do it, and how you lure the US into that position is the issue here, if we just go by what we think will happen then there will be no war.

The combat radius of the J35 carrier-based aircraft on the Fujian is 1,500 kilometers. Do you want the air platform to face the carrier-based aircraft?

The PLA is a saturation attack. 30 missiles fired in salvo, 3-6 DFs hit the US aircraft carrier, and the aircraft carrier withdrew from the battlefield.

The US aircraft carrier battle group had such a hard time dealing with the Houthi attack, and finally fled. I doubt the US air defense.

HF-2/HF-3 is in a parking state in military camps and positions, and cruise missiles also have the ability to strike mobile targets.

China has hundreds of reconnaissance satellites and hundreds of high-altitude reconnaissance drones, which can monitor Taiwan in real time 24 hours a day. China's intelligence network is more powerful than Russia's.

The victory of the war depends on missiles and aircraft. If you don't rely on missiles and aircraft to seize air supremacy and sea supremacy, what do you rely on? ?

Russia underestimated the enemy and only dispatched 200,000 people and failed to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, so the war was not over.

You said it the other way around. The US aircraft carrier is the attacker, and China is the defender. It was the US aircraft carrier that entered this position itself.

 

[ety]

Sheer overconfidence. "Vinashakale Vipareeta buddhihi".

Nonsense talk, what tech or industry does China depend on the West or anybody now ? The West doesn't help China in anyway and China doesn't need the help as India does.

 

[SolarWarden]

Celestial airbases they will be using to attack Taiwan will be in range of Taiwan cruise missiles also all naval and civilian ports/bases. Taiwan land base antiship track radars will have superior line of sight capability giving it a much longer range look because of where the radars will be deployed... high ground. So celestial naval ships will not be able to be line of sight of Island or risk getting launched at by subsonic and supersonic Taiwan antiship missiles.

Celestial Xi knows this, he knows what a cluster F attacking Taiwan will be for celestials.

Taiwan is going to have weeks to prepare for a missile and air attack thanks to their ISR and US/Nippon ISR/SIGINT/ELINT there's just no way of hiding a massive deployment of missiles, aircraft, naval ships, fuel, ect ect ect... So the question is what does Taiwan do with all that time? If Celestials start with a blockade Taiwan can and will take it as an act of war and can launch first giving PLA a severe nosebleed.

 

[lightning f57]

The real wargame simulation should look at what is the most likely scenario for China invading Taiwan and what it's objectives would be.

First China is in no hurry to invade, their red line is Taiwan declaring independence, if the US tries a Ukraine style appeasement to start war then anything is possible.

So lets say Taiwan declares independence, the US has no boots on the ground in Taiwan. Japan and South Korea will not directly get involved in any defence of Taiwan unless China attacks them first. They will unlikely allow their territory to be used to launched attacks, maybe logistical, maintenance and intel support only.

The US IMO will also not directly get involved, China will not attack Guam or any US bases, they know an attack by them on US means Nato intervention, China will want a limited conflict finished as soon as possible.

China will need to deny Taiwan the sea and put up a blockade, encircle it and take the skys over Taiwan. To do this the first weeks of fighting will be intense and no doubt both sides will suffer losses. However alone Taiwan won't last long it will use up its missiles, reserves, will have most its bases, airforce navy destroyed.

The question is will the US try to break a Chinese blockade by supplying Taiwan, again chances of that are small unless the Chinese attack american forces.

Now even if the Chinese erode Taiwanese military capability, they will need a plan to take Taiwan, does that mean capturing the political leaders or pouring in troops to occupy. We don't know if asymmetric tactics will be used by the Taiwanese, will they start an insurgency?

There are too many complicated factors for China to deal with in taking Taiwan. I personally think they will prefer the status quo and look for the best opportunity possible which could come next year or in 100 years.

Also I dont buy the Taiwan is important for microchip argument so the US must intervene. The US and China are both investing heavily into this to stop this being an issue, next economically a war for China and the US means global financial markets crash not because of microchips but because of supply chain issues with everything else. China is the worlds largest exporter, the US largest economy. Many countries rely on materials and goods from both countries and south east Asia. This will have a larger ripple effect on the world and China than microchip industry and itself is a much bigger deterent for all countries than war or declaring independence.

 

[100%_Guest]

And yes, they recently beat 20 Indian soldiers to death using only sticks too.

chines chapatied 20+epileptic lindians...
but a 120lbs fatso sikh throw and killed 500 pla . facts from lindian media

 

[100%_Guest]

Full support for china … go grab Taiwan fck up Americans to sea

what has TW got to do with US. So kashmir,kalistan is saxons counties?????

 

[liuzhengdong]

View attachment 84128
View attachment 84130

Celestial airbases they will be using to attack Taiwan will be in range of Taiwan cruise missiles also all naval and civilian ports/bases. Taiwan land base antiship track radars will have superior line of sight capability giving it a much longer range look because of where the radars will be deployed... high ground. So celestial naval ships will not be able to be line of sight of Island or risk getting launched at by subsonic and supersonic Taiwan antiship missiles.

Celestial Xi knows this, he knows what a cluster F attacking Taiwan will be for celestials.

Taiwan is going to have weeks to prepare for a missile and air attack thanks to their ISR and US/Nippon ISR/SIGINT/ELINT there's just no way of hiding a massive deployment of missiles, aircraft, naval ships, fuel, ect ect ect... So the question is what does Taiwan do with all that time? If Celestials start with a blockade Taiwan can and will take it as an act of war and can launch first giving PLA a severe nosebleed.

The PLA has deployed 10 052D Aegis destroyers in the Taiwan Strait and more than 100 HQ-9/HQ-16/HQ-22/HQ-19 air defense systems on the coast. Taiwan has only one surface-to-surface missile brigade, dozens of launch vehicles, and a salvo capability of only dozens of missiles. It cannot form a numerical advantage and cannot break through the PLA's dense air defense network. Taiwan's missiles have all been shot down into the sea. Taiwan's missile launchers are also the primary target of attack. Under the attack of the PLA Air Force and Navy, only one-tenth survived.

Taiwan launches a missile at the mainland, and the PLA can fire back ten missiles. The PLA Rocket Force has 41 brigades and more than 1,000 missile launchers. The Navy has more than 2,600 vertical launch systems and the Air Force has more than 200 bombers.

The PLA Air Force has more than a dozen large electronic warfare aircraft, hundreds of J-16 electronic warfare fighters, and long-range anti-radiation missiles, which are fatal to Taiwan's radars. Taiwan has only one dedicated electronic warfare aircraft.

The People's Liberation Army has hundreds of reconnaissance satellites that can monitor Taiwan in real time 24 hours a day. Taiwan's missile launchers cannot be hidden at all. In the face of absolute strength, Taiwan has lost its first-strike capability.

 

[drkrn86]

Nonsense talk, what tech or industry does China depend on the West or anybody now ? The West doesn't help China in anyway and China doesn't need the help as India does.

Time shall tell. No one in this world is independent of another.

 

[drkrn86]

So lets say Taiwan declares independence, the US has no boots on the ground in Taiwan.

USA already has boots on ground. There are few islands hardly 5ms from Chinese coast which are under Taiwan's control. The US military personnel already are stationed there.

China will want a limited conflict finished as soon as possible.

Yes.

 

[drkrn86]

AGM-158C的射程只有1000公里。

一群掠海的0.7馬赫遠程巡航飛彈是非常好的目標。解放軍軍艦使用掠海超音速目標進行防空演習。解放軍的近程防禦武器射速為1萬發。

F-22戰場感知能力不如殲20強，缺乏IRST

海軍以空軍火箭軍為後盾，全軍體係作戰。

台灣有7個反艦營。你認為他們能裝備多少？ ？

解放軍殺傷鏈超出美軍打擊範圍

Probably u don't understand what a kill chain is.

 

[j_hungary]

The combat radius of the J35 carrier-based aircraft on the Fujian is 1,500 kilometers. Do you want the air platform to face the carrier-based aircraft?

The PLA is a saturation attack. 30 missiles fired in salvo, 3-6 DFs hit the US aircraft carrier, and the aircraft carrier withdrew from the battlefield.

The US aircraft carrier battle group had such a hard time dealing with the Houthi attack, and finally fled. I doubt the US air defense.

HF-2/HF-3 is in a parking state in military camps and positions, and cruise missiles also have the ability to strike mobile targets.

China has hundreds of reconnaissance satellites and hundreds of high-altitude reconnaissance drones, which can monitor Taiwan in real time 24 hours a day. China's intelligence network is more powerful than Russia's.

The victory of the war depends on missiles and aircraft. If you don't rely on missiles and aircraft to seize air supremacy and sea supremacy, what do you rely on? ?

Russia underestimated the enemy and only dispatched 200,000 people and failed to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, so the war was not over.

You said it the other way around. The US aircraft carrier is the attacker, and China is the defender. It was the US aircraft carrier that entered this position itself.

Dude......

You keep using China as an anchoring point, when the aircraft don't really need to be anywhere close to China to launch missile in China, J-35 flying 1000km out into the ocean due east would mean you are 1000km outside your SAM and Radar coverage unless you also move your ship to cover that distant, which is why I said you either have the fleet stuck there and protect the approach or you go chase down american CBG in sub infested ocean.

And no, China IS the attacker, the scenario is China attack Taiwan, not US attack China. YOU have it the other way around.

 

[j_hungary]

Explain to me why we CAN'T attack any US city outside of GUAM? Taiwan has SSM then so does China, so how come US Navy is not destroyed and only China gets destroyed? Does physics work differently aboard the US Navy?

With what? You either send ICBM or do a Pearl Harbor style attack to the US, everything else is out of Chinese range, tell me, exactly what weapon do you have that can attack US, which is 10,600 km away?



You don't have enough ship to even challenge the US pacific fleet, and today is not 1945, even if you can steam all the way undetected, once your fleet attacked, there are no escape, if you do a pearl harbor style attack, that would be a one way mission.

Or again, are you saying China is willing to end the world attacking US with ICBM?

And I never said US Fleet is not going to be destroyed, did you even read what I posted before you trying to argue? I said both Navy will lose 3 CBG, US have 10, China have 3, so even if US loses 3 CBG and those fleet become combat ineffective, the US still have 70% of Naval Force left, if China loses 3 CBG, that's the ball game for China, you have no more navy other than a few hundred corvette and PB that make up the number.

Why not nuclear? If you can attack Chinese Cities and we can't attack you, so you suggest we sit still and let you destroy our cities genius? Why do you think US do not dare fight Russia head on? LOL. Hell, they don't even have a working carrier, yet stronk America is just cheerleading Ukraine into destruction.

Professional my foot, they assume nobody will retaliate and sit there and let their cities get destroyed. It is stupidity like this which end up killing humanity.

Again, are you that dumb or you are just pretending?

If you are going to use nuke, why waste 50,000 troop and try to attack Taiwan?? And lol Russia? Kursk is currently occupied by a US backed Ukraine with US equipment, what exactly can Russia do about it? Mind you, protecting Russian territories is one of the 3 nuclear Doctrine policy Russian themselves have drawn. And Russian city being bomb by Ukraine?

Game of geopolitics is not like you talking about trash, why not throw it back at someone when someone throw it at you. But I guess you don't even have the capacity to process how or why we have nuke since 1945 and only used once, even Soviet Union and US are constantly at war. That's because the brain of you can't process there are something is better than being defeated.

And I like that you say it like US cheerleading Ukraine into Destruction is a bad thing for the US. Well, they worn the Russian down to a nub, with what? 200 billions dollars? That's a frickin bargain to see Russia have to resort to 50 years old tank that they don't make anymore. I said it out loud before and I will say it again, it wouldn't take a genius in strategic planning to see US is simply dangling Ukraine to make an example out of Finland and Sweden, both of which joined NATO after this. So yeah, i would consider a bargain in the US point of view if Ukraine is push to destruction, but if they put Sweden and Finns to our side and worn down the Russian, and you know what? Ukrainian wanted to do this and willingly a part of this, because it's very simple, if you don't want people to fight you, don't invade said people.