Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[mangekyo]

Every time i log in here theres 10 posts saying Iran needs nukes asap for deterrence. Nukes are useless for Iran. First of all, no one had more nukes than soviet, wheres soviet now? Russia has nukes, they are getting sanctioned and boycotted from the entire west and even some asian countries. Nukes might deter from direct invasion. But it doesn't deter against sanctions, boycott and economic collapse which is what Iran struggles with. It doesn’t even deter against proxy warfare, otherwise US and NATO wouldn't arm Ukraine to the teeth.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Every time i log in here theres 10 posts saying Iran needs nukes asap for deterrence. Nukes are useless for Iran. First of all, no one had more nukes than soviet, wheres soviet now? Russia has nukes, they are getting sanctioned and boycotted from the entire west and even some asian countries. Nukes might deter from direct invasion. But it doesn't deter against sanctions, boycott and economic collapse which is what Iran struggles with. It doesn’t even deter against proxy warfare, otherwise US and NATO wouldn't arm Ukraine to the teeth.

better solution is to retain as much of existing program as possible and then make capitulation deal with the west and wait out decline of the West (can take centuries, not decades)

we have 5th most natural resources in the world, better to exploit it and invest it while we can and bide our time

 

[jauk]

Pre revolution, our military was one of the largest in the world with only the latest weapons. Economy was booming, we had all the latest equipments and held significant shares in several european companies and it was predicted that we would become one of top 5 largest economies in the world. Our population was less than 40M and the median age was 17!

The Iranians became arrogant, full of themselves and thought they can mess with the US without any consequences.

Abject nonsense. Even better than Saudi Arabia.

 

[jauk]

Every time i log in here theres 10 posts saying Iran needs nukes asap for deterrence. Nukes are useless for Iran. First of all, no one had more nukes than soviet, wheres soviet now? Russia has nukes, they are getting sanctioned and boycotted from the entire west and even some asian countries. Nukes might deter from direct invasion. But it doesn't deter against sanctions, boycott and economic collapse which is what Iran struggles with. It doesn’t even deter against proxy warfare, otherwise US and NATO wouldn't arm Ukraine to the teeth.

Incorrect. A non peer country with nukes is the ultimate equalizer.

Unless all these ‘sanctions’ were imposed for kicks.

 

[jauk]

Israel is bold and competent

Iran is conservative and not very competent

sooner we accept the facts and identify the flaws, the sooner we can fix them

The sooner we have a basic understanding of reality the sooner we any basic understanding of anything-unless one is easily influenced by propaganda and spreading it. Then there’s no hope.

 

[Navid09]

As an ally Syrias only real advantage was the fact that it was a land bridge to hezbollah but this came with maintenance costs i.e oil, equipment, soldiers and other items sent to syria free of charge.

So now the real question is, can Iran's deterrence (Hezbollah) still be maintained with a similar amount of investment?

Possible options:

1) negotiate with new government of syria- (seems unlikely, especially with Israel taking steps to mitigate this possibility)

2) via sea smuggled with other goods (I would assume Israel would also block this)

3) via Russia to Lebanon (seems a possibility if Russia is willing to do it)

4) give the means for Hezbollah to produce advanced weaponry themselves (not sure how viable this is considering Israel may just bomb there producing capabilities to bits, maybe if it is in the north of the country and deep underground?)

5) leave them with minimal support, and instead spend that money on other deterrences i.e houthis, PMF/PMU, Iran's own air force, missiles etc.

So the money can be redirected to other options, but the question is wether it would provide the same level of deterrence for the same amount of money?

 

[Persian Gulf]

The sooner we have basic understanding of reality the sooner we any basic understanding—unless one is easily influenced by propaganda and spreading it.

Indeed.

 

[EugeneP]

no more free oil for Syria is great news

no more free oil to Iraq should be next on our agenda

I just can't comprehend how Iran which is not really affluent can afford to spend so many resources on other countries for seriously questionable ideological reasons. What good (to Iran) can ever come out of Syria or Iraq?

 

[Persian Gulf]

As an ally Syrias only real advantage was the fact that it was a land bridge to hezbollah but this came with maintenance costs i.e oil, equipment, soldiers and other items sent to syria free of charge.

So now the real question is, can Iran's deterrence (Hezbollah) still be maintained with a similar amount of investment?

if Hezbollah's role is to act as a deterrent against Israeli bombing of Iran, did it succeed in that role? after decades of investment, it proved to be ineffective against Israel, and in fact required Iranian help to save it.

so, not a great investment. should we continue on this path again?

I do not suggest we abandon Hezbollah. they are our brothers. but we should be smarter about the costs we incur.

Possible options:

1) negotiate with new government of syria- (seems unlikely, especially with Israel taking steps to mitigate this possibility)

thankfully Israel's government is so retarded that the more they bomb Syria the more they make the 'rebels' realise Israel is their enemy and the more inclined they will be to work with iran.

we know back channel communications exist already.

 

[jauk]

I just can't comprehend how Iran which is not really affluent can afford to spend so many resources on other countries for seriously questionable ideological reasons. What good (to Iran) can ever come out of Syria or Iraq?

Belief in the cause is costly in souls only. Free otherwise.

 

[BigMela2onin]

better solution is to retain as much of existing program as possible and then make capitulation deal with the west and wait out decline of the West (can take centuries, not decades)

It is necessary to retain enough that it incentivizes other side not to break the agreement. No more cementing reactors. Any concession should be relaitvely quickly and easily reversible.

 

[Persian Gulf]

How does nukes remove sanctions? Syria collapsed in 1 week from sanctions when military force couldn't do it in 10 years. Euroapes can keep sanctions on forever and wait.

iranian leaders deluded themselves to think they need us as much as we need them (see: Marandi's talk of Europe's 'hard winter')

the reality is that iran is a tiny percentage of global GDP and the world is not reliant on iran for anything, but is reliant on USA and China for virtually everything

unless China wants to (or is forced to) compete with the current economic order which it benefits from, there is no plausible economic solution without making a surrender deal with the USA

 

[Persian Gulf]

It is necessary to retain enough that it incentivizes other side not to break the agreement. No more cementing reactors. Any concession should be relaitvely quickly and easily reversible.

this is not a negotiation between equals. this is a relatively weak and poor Iran vs hegemonic West

and our cards are not very good. so we are not in a position to make demands when we need a deal far more than the West does.

we should hope Trump is kind enough to let us have some kind of victory while we capitulate in JCPOA 2.0

next 4-5 years will be very dangerous for Iran. we only faced 'maximum pressure' for 2 years. now we have it for 4+ years if we don't reach a deal.

 

[tower9]

no more free oil for Syria is great news

no more free oil to Iraq should be next on our agenda

Why is Iran giving free oil to Iraq? That’s like giving free snow to Alaska or free weed to Jamaica wtf??

 

[EugeneP]

Belief in the cause is costly in souls only. Free otherwise.

That sounds like something I may hear from a Sunday morning door knocker! You have to explain it to me.