This is a very low penetration rate for a first strike of this scope. If Iran is truly going to wage a short, high-intensity war, they should target radars and SAMs in the first few attempts, even if that means consuming almost all of the missiles and drones in the first wave of strikes.
30%+ is pretty good for first small waves, in my opinion.
we have to consider massive asymmetry in inventories: Israel is estimated to have c. 300-400 Arrow interceptors + c. 90 THAAD interceptors = 400-500 total ABM interceptors (50% operational at any one time, the rest in reserve for reloads)
from 180 missiles fired in TP2, if 1/3 failed, 1/3 impacted, and 1/3 intercepted = c. 60 interceptors depleted
120 missiles fired in TP1: 30% failed, 10% impacted, 60% intercepted = 72 interceptors depleted
so already c. 25-30% of their entire inventory is gone (on a very conservative basis assuming 1 interceptor per target missile, which is not true in practice). they have to preserve interceptors for cities and will increasingly not attempt to defend other targets (as we saw in Nevatim in TP2). so naturally with time the penetration rate will increase (as we see in Russia).
IRI officials talk about increasing capacity for much larger attacks than TP2, meaning launch of 1000+ missiles at once.
in that scenario the penetration rate will be insignificant, only the accuracy and lethality of the warheads will matter.
