Yes, there is no doubt about the geopolitical impact, it has been massive. The tactical aspect is just something we ought to be careful about before coming to a conclusion.
Per official/ semi-official sources, the targets were only engaged when they released pay loads, that would suggest, those shot down were in A2G config (though the Rafale is tauted as being Omni-role, but lets leave that aside for now). However, this official version doesnt make sense if interpreted as 'those very same aircraft that released the payloads', for a maltitude of reasons: matching munitions dropped versus target distances etc etc (its getting late, but its an easy triangulation). What is more likely in my opinion is the top cover of the respective packages that released payloads were engaged. In such a situation the presence of Su-30/ Mig-29 in Akhnoor would make sense. It would also imply the Rafale shot down could likely be a top cover configured with Meteor. If so, it would only mean ROE and intent assertation on both sides would play a large role in determining the outcome. Ofcourse, my knowledge is limited to DCS level, what additional cutting edge collab targeting, EW and its kinds played and their impact on this estimatorly calculus, I have no idea.
