POST WAR assessment of recent conflict.

[Hybrid]

Thanks for the clarification. There was another AA system of the Indians the Israelis recently upgraded. What was it?

Am not aware of any old system upgraded by israile..
Last am aware of shilka was upgraded by bel to tackle UAV.

 

[TallGuy]

Yes, this is a gap that we need to plug somehow.



Let me explain myself more a little. As I said, the wildly successful PAF air battle took place on the first night. After this skirmish, both airforces were essentially not flying for several nights. We were "showing restraint" or whatever. During this time India was constantly attacking us with LMs and on the final night with BMs and Brahmos. Had the night 1 PAF-IAF skirmish been a deterrent, would the conflict continued after that? So that shows that PAF shooting down 5 aircraft is not a deterrent for what India wanted to achieve.

Another point on why I think deterrence failed. I should say conventional deterrence failed. India was continuing with their belligerence until the very last moment when US intervened. I don't buy either sides narrative on the other side running to US because:
A. US refused to intervene before.
B. Pakistan did not run to the US because Pakistan HAD to respond otherwise Pakistan should've surrendered to India.
C. India did not run to the US because they were willing to escalate till the absolute tipping point to see the boundary

What most likely happened (this is my guess) is that Pakistan skipped a few steps on the escalation ladder and started launched BMs and MAYBE doing some movement on nuclear assets. I say this because that's the only thing that could've suddenly forced the US to intervene and India to accept this intervention. Assuming that this is true, this is a failure of our conventional deterrence because we had to resort to our nuclear deterrence. You might argue this is what nuclear weapons are for but this increasing conventional weakness on our side is creating a dangerously unstable environment. Lowering the nuclear threshold is not good for either side - we need to really work on our conventional deterrence.

So if PAF had shot down more aircraft in Air Battle - Indians would have stopped?

I tend to agree with following rumor "when the in-aerospace domain - Satellite links were blocked of GSAT 6 and GSAT 7 and GSAT 7A, Indian High command lost the control and communication even with its Stratigic forces. that is where US intervene as India was open to Attack and conventional/non-conventional warfare.

It was a biggest loss that Indian Armed forces suffer - all because of Chinese Cyber Command and the other Chinese Aerospace Command.

i personally still can not fathom a detail shown by AVM Aurangzaib when the bholari AFB was under attack from Naliya AFS by Brahmos GLCM and i have counted 6 missiles, 5 were Jammed and 1 leaked. that operation is so time compressed! that i am still dumb founded.

I suggest we must take a close look at briefing again see the ADGE part. its an eye opener for those who know.

PAF decided to show officially - so it must have mean something - after all briefings have a certain messege for the enemy.

By the Way kill count is 3 x Rafale, 1 x Su-30MKI, 1 x MiG-29UPG and 1 x Mirage 2000

that is 6 plus 1 Drone

 

[JamD]

So if PAF had shot down more aircraft in Air Battle - Indians would have stopped?

No. Unlikely. I dont get how what im saying keeps getting misinterpeted. I must be doing a terrible job at writing down my thoughts. The balance of damage was wildly in our favour at that point. To attempt to correct it, they hit back next night with tonnes of LMs. THIS is when we should've responded at least in kind instead of waiting for days.

 

[Vox Non Dei]

No two opinions about it. I wish my qaum could learn humor and humility from your nation, especially the Punjabis. I am sorry to say that most of my online countrymen, particularly my fellow Bhakts are a humorless, crass and bilious lot.

I will say Humor, Humility and Music...
Indian music scene fucken sucks.

 

[Oscar]

No. Unlikely. I dont get how what im saying keeps getting misinterpeted. I must be doing a terrible job at writing down my thoughts. The balance of damage was wildly in our favour at that point. To attempt to correct it, they hit back next night with tonnes of LMs. THIS is when we should've responded at least in kind instead of waiting for days.

I am hypothesizing that the PAF exposed more of its capabilities for less of a gain whereas India is holding onto a lot of its capabilities keeping China in mind.

 

[TAC]

I am hypothesizing that the PAF exposed more of its capabilities for less of a gain whereas India is holding onto a lot of its capabilities keeping China in mind.

With all due respect, I think you’re giving them too much credit. They were desperate to teach Pakistan a lesson (still are) and cement their regional hegemony. They threw everything they had / could including the kitchen sink and came up severely wanting. After this performance against Pakistan, I can’t imagine what they could possibly have held back that would give them a cat in hells chance against China.

 

[Arsalan45]

The post on Indian Pakistan war. Can I steal it?

Yes you can.

 

[Waterboy]

I am hypothesizing that the PAF exposed more of its capabilities for less of a gain whereas India is holding onto a lot of its capabilities keeping China in mind.

Yeah. Their missile capability is way superior than ours.

 

[WhispersFromThePast]

I am hypothesizing that the PAF exposed more of its capabilities for less of a gain whereas India is holding onto a lot of its capabilities keeping China in mind.

Nothing too deep here. You do in combat what you prepare for in training. When all your training and doctrine is limited to defending against a larger enemy, you do what we all saw.

There are critical components of an offensive anti-IADS campaign missing. A J-16 type specialized EW platform. The blinders are simply too slow. Proper stealth bomber drones that can surveil inside enemy territory and drop precise payloads without being detected. Anti-radiation loitering munition. Offensive drone swarms against a technologically advanced enemy. Powerful AEWACS that can saturate the EM spectrum with radiation more powerful than J-16 from standoff distance.

But most importantly, the lack of doctrine for an offensive campaign. The concept of offensive-defence is missing from the very psyche of our armed forces. So we can’t expect them to press the advantage within India to lock-in the advantage.

It is possible that J-35 will be the start of a doctrinal change but it all depends on the vision of the leadership.

 

[Han Patriot]

I am hypothesizing that the PAF exposed more of its capabilities for less of a gain whereas India is holding onto a lot of its capabilities keeping China in mind.

I think India is the one exposing everything due to desperation to save face. They essentially threw in the kitchen sink after that 5:0 incident. You have to understand the Indian psyche, it is all about ego and face saving. Look you send in SCALPS, BRAHMOS, S400, some got jammed, some had complete seekers, SCALPS were particularly important finds, complete seeker. We can do alot with those missiles. Who the heck throws in few dozen HAROPs unless they were acting out of emotion?

 

[Liquidator]

I am hypothesizing that the PAF exposed more of its capabilities for less of a gain whereas India is holding onto a lot of its capabilities keeping China in mind.

It was the largest air battle in modern history.

40 on our side vs 72 on theirs.

Tactics & training won the day.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

I am hypothesizing that the PAF exposed more of its capabilities for less of a gain whereas India is holding onto a lot of its capabilities keeping China in mind.

You have always been giving the benefits of the doubt to the Bharatis! And, it's been working perfectly with them....

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Pak must ask for the TOT and JV for all sorts of the Turkish AD systems so that indigenous production starts......

 

[Han Patriot]

It was the largest air battle in modern history.

40 on our side vs 72 on theirs.

Tactics & training won the day.

Imagine holding off an air force twice as large, forcing them into hiding 200km away. Only Pakistan can do that. Economically 10x smaller yet forced them into a ceasefire. You guys got our respect.

 

[Rational Philosopher]

I have a question, where are the 4 ZDK-03s we have? Are they retired now or weren't they in China receiving some upgrades?

Also are the Pakistani DA-20s still operational, were they utilised?