POST WAR assessment of recent conflict.

[Watandar]

Why cant Pakistan put similar restrictions on Maxar to not allow for images of Pakistani bases ?

Small economy and no longer a Western partner. Maxar doesnt care if it loses Pakistani business or pisses off its govt. Pakistan MUST maintain political stability to improve its reputation and grow its economy.

 

[MH.Yang]

Okay, that all depends on one thing, that you can win a protracted war with India both with and without Chinese help and both directly and indirectly.

If you think this is the case, sure why not, but as I know for a fact, after being an astute student of warfare for at least 2 decades, this is not how I see it, and this is not how the mentor in the think tank sees it, and that's not how most of the military circle sees it.

I can probably go on in a indefinite and try to explain to you why this is not going to be the way it was, but then I probably would just going to be talking in circle. So instead I am just going to say this, if that is what you think, then I am okay with it, I would not comment on this further.

Although India is a bigger country than Pakistan, it is no more capable of sustained warfare than Pakistan. As far as I know India's ammunition stockpile, energy stockpile, industrial production capacity, and social organization capacity are all weak.

It is China that really has a strong capacity for a protracted war. China will give full support to Pakistan and eventually it will be India who will not be able to tolerate a protracted war.

You shouldn't say "both with and without Chinese help". Anyone who is familiar with the history of China and Pakistan knows that it is necessarily "with" not "withou".

 

[MH.Yang]

The old concept is, you make them hurt and they won't do it to you. That's a lot easier said than done, the question here is, how you make them hurt.

That's the deterrence factor in this entire thing, putting China and Pakistan nuke aside, what is the factor Pakistan can offer to deter India, I am not making this in a rude kind of way, but it's time for you to take stock and see how you can achieve the way the Ukrainian make Russian hurt in their own invasion. The fact to the matter is, India know China support Pakistan, and Pakistan had nuke, I mean they aren't stupid, but they decided to do this anyway, now either this is one time rouge general doing crazy thing without prior authorisation, that would be easy, but if they knew China support you and you have nuke and they still do that? In Military and Geopolitical term means they don't believe of that deterrence anymore, otherwise they wouldn't have done it.

Military solution is one of the ways to deal with this, but this is not going to be the only way, again, what I said previously would ring true, because if you fight an all-out war, unless you can make sure it end the way you wanted at the time you wanted, if this going on indefinitely, that will ultimately favor India. Now again, how you can make sure that happen, now that's the million-dollar question.

Pakistan should develop asymmetric strike means. It should focus on developing four types of forces: nuclear weapons, air force, submarines and missiles.

PAF should come out of the comfort zone of Air superiority fighter like J10C. Yes, J10C is bound to bring good exchange ratio. Utilizing better radar missiles and high speed advantage, leave immediately after launching missiles out of line of sight and of course the enemy can't shoot you down. But J10C can't penetrate deep into enemy airspace to strike vital enemy targets for offensive missions, then it will only bring tactical victories, not strategic ones.PAF needs heavy ground striking platforms, it needs to take on more strategic offensive missions for Pakistan. Strategic balance can only be achieved by being able to strike important ground assets. Just shooting down a few fighter jets does not really deter a major power like India.

Pakistan also needs a submarine force as professional and good as PAF. It can even give up medium and large surface ships for this purpose. Defend the coast with land based naval fighters and missile boats and threaten the security of India's shipping lanes with an elite submarine force.

Pakistan also needs to build up a huge inventory of missiles and drones. High-end missiles and drones, as well as low-end cheap missiles and drones, need to be stockpiled in large quantities. The stockpile should be of such a quantity that it can last through the entire war until Chinese assistance arrives.

 

[Oscar]

Why cant Pakistan put similar restrictions on Maxar to not allow for images of Pakistani bases ?

Beggars cannot be choosers.

You know already when those sats are doing their regular passes so you can move assets but you have zero market or leverage to offer maxar compared to India

 

[Goenitz]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/india-pakistans-drone-battles-mark-new-arms-race-asia-2025-05-27/

drones are coming

 

[Baibers_1260]

That's true of all western fighters, they've only shot down outdated Russian junks. What's the most advanced fighter shot down by the most dominant western fighter, F-15? Probably an Iraqi Mig-25 or a Mig-29 during gulf war 1...

-In a massive dogfight Israeli F-16s and F-15s shot down 86 Syrian and Lebanese aircraft of all types over the Bekaa valley in 1982. Reportedly a Mig 25 was also shot down by an F-15
-US Navy F-14 Tomcats shot down two Libyan Su 22 Fitter jet fighters over the Gulf of Sidra in the Mediterranean.
- Israeli F-16s clashed with Soviet piloted Egyptian Air Force, upgraded Mig 21 bis, fighters over Sinai. 7 Mig 21s were shot down in that dogfight.
-Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 over Syria in 2015
-Pakistani F-16s shot down Afghan DRAAF , and Soviet VVS Su-22s, Su 7s, Su-25s, and perhaps a Mig 23 1986
- NATO Dutch F-16s shot down a Serbian Air Force Mig 29 in 1999.
Mig 23, Mig 25 and Su 22, upgraded Mig 21s are pretty formidable aircraft if handled by expert pilots. Pilot skill counts, Vietnamese pilots flying Mig 19s , Mig 17s and Mig 21s gave a good account of themselves downing dozens of F-105 Thunderchiefs, F-4 Phantoms, B-52s, F-5 ( South Viertnamese) jets. and dozens of South Vietnamese Bell Huey helicopters.

 

[SaadH]

-In a massive dogfight Israeli F-16s and F-15s shot down 86 Syrian and Lebanese aircraft of all types over the Bekaa valley in 1982. Reportedly a Mig 25 was also shot down by an F-15
-US Navy F-14 Tomcats shot down two Libyan Su 22 Fitter jet fighters over the Gulf of Sidra in the Mediterranean.
- Israeli F-16s clashed with Soviet piloted Egyptian Air Force, upgraded Mig 21 bis, fighters over Sinai. 7 Mig 21s were shot down in that dogfight.
-Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 over Syria in 2015
-Pakistani F-16s shot down Afghan DRAAF , and Soviet VVS Su-22s, Su 7s, Su-25s, and perhaps a Mig 23 1986
- NATO Dutch F-16s shot down a Serbian Air Force Mig 29 in 1999.
Mig 23, Mig 25 and Su 22, upgraded Mig 21s are pretty formidable aircraft if handled by expert pilots. Pilot skill counts, Vietnamese pilots flying Mig 19s , Mig 17s and Mig 21s gave a good account of themselves downing dozens of F-105 Thunderchiefs, F-4 Phantoms, B-52s, F-5 ( South Viertnamese) jets. and dozens of South Vietnamese Bell Huey helicopters.

Thanks, I rest my case. All western fighters post Korean war have only come up against significantly outgunned, outdated and generation old russian junks. So, not just the F-16s, even the venerable and dominant F-15's have only shot down planes that are no match for it's capabilities.

 

[SaadH]

Beggars cannot be choosers.

You know already when those sats are doing their regular passes so you can move assets but you have zero market or leverage to offer maxar compared to India

If only our establishment had the kahunai's or the foresight to shoot down a couple of their satellites as they passed over our territory. I know the capability only exists with a handful of countries, but threatening to do so would put a second thought in maxar's leaderhip.

There's reason why Elon bhayya quickly figure this out and stopped offering starlink services to Ukranians.

 

[nahtanbob]

I feel Pakistan did not have the initiative in the recent conflict and was simply reacting to India.

Pakistani foreign policy making and understanding of the world is still poor, and it shows when appealing to global audiences. India was shocked first by the Pakistani response and then Trump leveraging the conflict in trade negotations with India, but I wonder how many Pakistanis in govt were smart enough to see and understand those angles.

How much stock of ammunition/food/fuel does Pakistan actually have in a conflict with India ? Is it few weeks , few months , is there any stock at all ? A minimum of 6 months stockpile is needed for future conflicts.

It is very expensive to keep a 6 month stockpile

 

[Vkdindian1]

There are many companies other than Maxar that provide commercial satellite images. Apart from Maxar and many other western companies, there are a host of Chinese companies that also do the same and are unlikely to get influenced by India.
Some of these are -
- Twenty-First Century Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd (21AT)
- BeiJing-OMAP
- Piesat
- Spacety
- Changguang Satellite Company
- MizarVision

It also may be noted that India restricts companies from distributing images with less than 1 Meter resolution. Anything more than that is a fair game. And that resolution is good enough to provide proof of damage to Indian installations in recent skirmish.

 

[Tomcats]

Interesting bit is
Maxar is refusing to accommodate Pakistani requests for imagery of Indian bases.

Problem is ITAR and also a journalistic hit piece recently that showed one of their customers was a sanctioned Pakistani company. Nonetheless, there are plenty of Chinese alternatives that can be utilized.

 

[Oscar]

Problem is ITAR and also a journalistic hit piece recently that showed one of their customers was a sanctioned Pakistani company. Nonetheless, there are plenty of Chinese alternatives that can be utilized.

Utilized vs publicized

 

[Oscar]

There are many companies other than Maxar that provide commercial satellite images. Apart from Maxar and many other western companies, there are a host of Chinese companies that also do the same and are unlikely to get influenced by India.
Some of these are -
- Twenty-First Century Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd (21AT)
- BeiJing-OMAP
- Piesat
- Spacety
- Changguang Satellite Company
- MizarVision

It also may be noted that India restricts companies from distributing images with less than 1 Meter resolution. Anything more than that is a fair game. And that resolution is good enough to provide proof of damage to Indian installations in recent skirmish.

India, as a major client and strategic partner, can exert diplomatic pressure on satellite imagery providers and the US government to restrict or block sales to Pakistan. Given India’s growing economic and geopolitical influence, this pressure can be significant.

Imagery providers may choose to restrict access to high-res imagery of sensitive areas based on their own risk assessment and compliance policies. They might be more cautious in providing detailed imagery of Indian military installations to Pakistan due to geopolitical considerations.

This could be under pressure from beyond India as well, which means other than non-Chinese sources the requests could be denied.

Pakistan can potentially contract Chinese satellite imagery providers more easily than Western ones due to fewer export restrictions and geopolitical alignment.

However, commercial providers including Chinese firms may still restrict or delay imagery delivery of sensitive Indian sites due to company policies, government regulations, or political considerations.

On the other hand - there is also likely possibility that the entire plethora of ordnance thrown at India failed to do any damage but that also belies statements by India that damage was done to five bases but classified that as limited. For which there isnt much proof other than mostly Indian sources and that too much after damage control could be deployed.

The ONUS however, is on Pakistan to prove its claims or lose this narrative.

 

[Vkdindian1]

On the other hand - there is also likely possibility that the entire plethora of ordnance thrown at India failed to do any damage but that also belies statements by India that damage was done to five bases but classified that as limited. For which there isnt much proof other than mostly Indian sources and that too much after damage control could be deployed.

That is why I don’t believe the state approved statements in this regard. Both by India as well as Pakistan.

Both have claimed to cause damage to only the other side while restricting or no damage at all to own side. By intercepting everything thrown at them.

The credible data from neutral sources says otherwise.

 

[Oscar]

That is why I don’t believe the state approved statements in this regard. Both by India as well as Pakistan.

Both have claimed to cause damage to only the other side while restricting or no damage at all to own side. By intercepting everything thrown at them.

The credible data from neutral sources says otherwise.

Credible data from neutral sources is mostly focused on Pakistan with piecemeal analysis of Indian targets. Until all of it comes out - no way to tell.