Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

I think less than 6 months

US used half its entire stockpile of GBU-57 bombs and didn't even destroy Fordow

meanwhile it didn't even attack Natanz-2 or the other undisclosed nuclear sites (such as Qazvin). Natanz-2 is buried at 2x the depth of Fordow and Qazvin is even deeper than that. so there is no military solution. Iran will just build deeper and be less transparent.
Here's a thought, even if Iran develops nuclear weapons and declares itself a nuclear state and Israel/US start bombing conventionally, would Iran retaliate with nukes? What would be Iran's nuclear threshold? Assassination of supreme leader/PM? Targeting of it's nuke sites? Or would the nuclear genie only come out in case of ground invasion...If the latter then why even have nukes?
 
Probably first days of aggression, now is getting the price for being cuck loser, give us numbers for days from tomorrow onward...

I don't expect anything special from any new government, but he should be loser as a symbol of sinister approach and cruelty in political purposes, still, with disastrous finish ..



That is same tweet that Elon Musk tweeted to Trump, just faked with Ayatollah instead of Musk...
I will never stop bragging about how it was we who ended his reign
 
Depends on where progress has been.

There are two bottlenecks for Nuclear Weapon development. Enrichment and Miniturisation

The first bottleneck is for a country to enrich over 60% ENU, you need 85+ to make nuclear weapon, but the key stage is 60, because that is the magic number to separate between U235 and U238. If you had achieve that, then from 60-85 would be a lot easier because you already get past that stage.

The second bottleneck comes with minturisation of warhead, because you can't put a giant fission seperator on a missile, that only have a limited space, unless you are putting it like WW2 style airdroppable bomb, which limited your range, you need to make the entire things from the cake to the trigger mechanism smaller that you can fit into a missile.

THe first stage will take you decades unless someone teraches you how to do it, Soviet Union takes 4 years to enrich to that level because of the scientist deflection to Soviet Union after WW2. As oppose to North Korea, which had taken almost 30 years.

The second stage can take you a few years to a decade or so, that is something even North Korea can't even do for now.

So depends on what status is the Iranian nuclear program, a few month set back can be large if they are in pre-60% enrichment, or it could be a small gap to fill if they had already go past 60%.

Thanks for the recap of information.

As far as IAEA is concerned. They detected at 83.7% , and that too in 2023. Probably past three first stage.

However 2nd stage is still in question.

"In 2023, the IAEA said uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – close to bomb-grade levels – were found at an Iranian nuclear facility. Its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% had also grown to 128.3 kilograms, the highest level then documented."
 
Here's a thought, even if Iran develops nuclear weapons and declares itself a nuclear state and Israel/US start bombing conventionally, would Iran retaliate with nukes? What would be Iran's nuclear threshold? Assassination of supreme leader/PM? Targeting of it's nuke sites? Or would the nuclear genie only come out in case of ground invasion...If the latter then why even have nukes?
nukes only deter against nukes
 
-If Fordow isn’t now a hive of activity? It’s done. If the regime isn’t frantically repairing the approach roads? It’s done. If they aren’t pulling all that earth crammed into the tunnel entrances? It’s done.

Mere power interruptions can destroy high-speed centrifuges. They HATE vibration of any kind. (12) 30,000 pound high-order explosive deep penetrators delivered a monumental amount of vibration, let alone explosive effects. My money is on Fordow being rendered useless. Activity- or the lack of it- will be the tell. I doubt the Iranians now have the time or the money to pretend to work on this facility.

What if they moved it out?
 
every time Israel does some sabotage or attack on Iran's nuclear program, it only advances the program

now the US destroyed Natanz and damaged Fordow (not severely, it seems)

Iran will move enrichment to the massive new Natanz site and undeclared sites (Qazvin?). enriched uranium was moved in advance and now no one knows where it is!

Natanz-1: 10-20m underground
Fordow: 80m under mountain

Natanz-2: 150-200m under mountain
Qazvin: 200m+ under mountain

Israel couldn't reach Natanz-1 let alone Fordow, so the US had to do it, and even the US couldn't destroy Fordow with 12 (!) GBU-57s at once. so they have no chance in Natanz-2 and Qazvin other than group ops.
How unstable do you think the ground is in Frodo? Or do you believe that despite all the seismic shock from the MOPs it is fine to re-enter?
 
While Iranian missiles specially hypersonic missiles excelled however in my humble opinion following are the dire needs of Iran:

1. Intelligence -> biggest disappointment, time and again Iranian intelligence keeps failing. Either they are the most inefficient wing of Iran or they're heavily infiltrated by traitors. If you have traitors in your army then no matter what advanced gadget you build or acquire it won't do any good.

Ancient Roman quote: "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within."

2. Air Defense -> not sure what happened to heavily touted air defense, were they crippled by israhelli attack post TP2 as claimed? or destroyed in the early hours of unprovoked attack?.. equitpmentwise this is the biggest disappointment for me. Looks like AD system only good against drones and complete failure against fighter jets (unless there is some evidence of F35 downing)

3. Fighter jets-> Iranians are too talented not to have indigenous fighter jets, Though in short term they need to acquire any 4.5++ higher jets they can get. But they need to have own fruitful fighter jets development program. I don't want to hear again that certain IRGC commander's claim that they have new fighter jets to display but can't do because of lack of permission from highest authority.

4. Nuclear weapon-> Iran didn't learn lesson from Iraq, Libya., nuke is necessary deterance against evil forces. The current war exposed Iranian leadership's lack of foresight. Nuke is essential for survival else USA/Israhell will continue hitting Iran with or without notice and excuse.

There are other needs but I'm skipping those for now, if these 4 are taken care of and Iran continues to build on their missiles technology they'll be fine and nobody would dare to attack them.
 
I have no objections to Iran purchasing JF-17s. Iran needs to rebuild its air fleet and JF-17s are a good candidate but what Iran needs more is J-35s and Awacs!
I agree that AWACS is a critical capability gap for Iran, as it will enhance situational awareness, command and control, and overall combat effectiveness of Iranian warfare capabilities. And regarding 5th generation fighters like the J35, while they would be a significant upgrade, Iran’s current air force infrastructure and pilot training are likely not yet optimized for such advanced systems.
A phased modernization approach would be more practical imo. Like the following:

1. 4.5th Generation Fighters should be acquired first. Aircraft like the JF-17 Block III (with AESA radar, PL-15 BVRAAMs, and modern avionics) or the J-10CE (with AESA radar and superior kinematic performance) would allow Iran to rebuild its fleet with credible and combat proven platforms while developing the necessary maintenance and operational expertise.
2. Integration with AWACS and Network Centric Warfare for example pairing these jets with AWACS would improve data linked coordination, forming a foundation for more advanced operations.
3. Once Iran has mastered 4.5 gen ops, only then integrating the J-35 would be a logical next step. China itself followed a similar progression from J10/J16 to J20.

The JF17 and J10CE would integrate well with a future J-35 fleet, as they share common Chinese avionics, weapons (PL10, PL15).
 
lol, all these talk about nulcear weapon, but I thinks most of you have no clue on how you can make one.

First of all, we are talking about Uranium-based Nuclear Weapon, not Plutonium-based, you enrich Plutonium cake differently than Uranium, so I am not going to talk about Plutonium base enrichment here, if you want to know the different, go read up this


The natural existence of Uranium is U238, U235 is the fissile isotrop that exist in 0.7% of Uranium naturally, and a U238 ore will make you sick but it will not be able to sustain nuclear fission because there are not enough unstable electron in it, and you need to keep splitting the Uranium atom to self-substain a fission cycle, that's the main reason why nuclear energy exist, you split a U238 with a electron from U-235 and break it down, energy release when that atom break down, and if you have enough U-235 in an fuel cake, you can sustain that cycle, 0.7% will get you no where.

NUlear Power Plant uses 3 to 5 % enriched Uranium, Enriching Uranium is basically you put more U235 on a fuel, above the original 0.7%, that way you can sustain a longer chain reaction, you do this by putting Uranium into a Centrifuge, both 235 and 238 have the same chemical property, and the only thing different is the atomic mass, and 3 is not a very big mass, a centrifuge will spin the Uranium and separate the tiny mass by driving it into a centrifical force, the "heavier" 238 will stay outside of the cylinder, while the lighter 235 will concentrate in the middle, that's how you separate U235 and U238, however, you can't do this on one go, and it takes helluva power to do that, so you have to constantly spin the same fuel and taken out a chunk of U238 with each spin, which mean there are a lot of calibration you will need to do during the entire process, and for a Weapon Grade Uranium, you need to enrich that Uranium beyond 85% (the lowest of the require mass to self sustain "indefinitely". Most Centrifuge works from stage between 0.7% to 1% then from 1% to 3% then from 3 to 10, 10-20, 20-50, 50-60 (the most critical, as the U235 mass is then stable enough to not swing out with U238 atom) then 60-85+. Once you have the cake at 85%, you have your HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) that is good for nuclear weapon.

Conventional (not experimental power plant) can only take a 5% cake, otherwise you are going to melt the reactor down, so when a country having an Uranium cake beyond 20%, that mean you have the intention on making it into Nuclear Weapon, the last report IAEA finding is Iran have a 22% cake (That's about 10 years ago IIRC, but don't quote me on that) so Iran is without doubt they are trying to make nuclear weapon..
 
This is a 2-part question.

First, on 9/11, I watched quite a bit of live video of Muslims dancing in the streets when the towers feel. Including here in the US. What I don't remember seeing was official condemnation from Muslim nations. That's not to say it didn't happen. I just don't recall seeing it.

2nd question - yes, we do tend to be hypocritical. When it comes to capital punishment for murderers and baby rapers, we've got rent-a-mobs out there condemning it but when the pro-life crowd stands up for the unborn, the same rent-a-mobs decry it while shouting "Our body our choice".
The Muslim world did widely condemn 9/11 from the Arab League and OIC to AlAzhar, even Hezbollah, and Hamas. Even Iran and Libya denounced it. A fringe minority celebrating doesn’t reflect 1.8 billion people, just as the KKK doesn’t represent all Christians. Meanwhile, Western governments still fund and arm Israel despite its 75 year occupation, apartheid (per Amnesty, HRW, and UN reports), and tens of thousands civilians killed in Gaza and Gaza turned into rubble. Where’s the moral consistency?

On your second point:

Hypocrisy in domestic debates (abortion, death penalty) doesn’t absolve Western state hypocrisy. The U.S. vetoes UN ceasefires to shield Israel while lecturing others on "human rights." Condemning capital punishment but supplying bombs for collective punishment in Gaza is peak doublespeak.

The difference is that Muslim institutions officially disown terror groups. Western states bankroll theirs.
 

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