Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[gambit]

Can this be trusted?
I occasionally listen to Business Radio. Ninety-seven percent of the forecasts there predict catastrophic consequences. This is to say that one must critically evaluate any information.

The book's title is 'The Bomb In My Garden'. A memoir by Mahdi Obeidi, Iraq's chief nuclear scientist.

The 'bomb' that Obeidi referenced was a pair of centrifuges to separate U-235 from U-238. Saddam Hussein ordered Obeidi to bury the centrifuges in Obeidi's home garden to hide them from US soldiers looking for anything relating to Iraq's nuclear weapons program.

Centrifuges must be designed exactly for a specific purpose. U-235 and U-238 are atomic weights. That is how close the isotopes are to each other. U-235 is the isotope that can go 'boom'. So, if a country is trying to get centrifuges to separate uranium isotopes, it will be assumed the purpose is to create a nuclear warhead.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Ayatollah Khamenei does not tweet!!!

Yes, but still funny.

 

[mangekyo]

You know what is sad? After all that's been said and done during this conflict, I'm still not 100% sure if the Iranian leadership will acquire nuclear weapons. I don't trust them at all. It feels like they're looking for an excuse to not go all the way. What are they scared of? What is the end goal? What is the strategy here?

There is a religious fatwa. No one has higher religious authority than him. So as long as the fatwa remains, nukes are off the table

 

[mangekyo]

Ayatollah Khamenei does not tweet!!!

Maybe not directly, but he has an official account

https://x.com/khamenei_ir?s=21

 

[SaadH]

I think less than 6 months

US used half its entire stockpile of GBU-57 bombs and didn't even destroy Fordow

meanwhile it didn't even attack Natanz-2 or the other undisclosed nuclear sites (such as Qazvin). Natanz-2 is buried at 2x the depth of Fordow and Qazvin is even deeper than that. so there is no military solution. Iran will just build deeper and be less transparent.

Here's a thought, even if Iran develops nuclear weapons and declares itself a nuclear state and Israel/US start bombing conventionally, would Iran retaliate with nukes? What would be Iran's nuclear threshold? Assassination of supreme leader/PM? Targeting of it's nuke sites? Or would the nuclear genie only come out in case of ground invasion...If the latter then why even have nukes?

 

[mangekyo]

Probably first days of aggression, now is getting the price for being cuck loser, give us numbers for days from tomorrow onward...

I don't expect anything special from any new government, but he should be loser as a symbol of sinister approach and cruelty in political purposes, still, with disastrous finish ..



That is same tweet that Elon Musk tweeted to Trump, just faked with Ayatollah instead of Musk...

I will never stop bragging about how it was we who ended his reign

 

[mangekyo]

Is this real? Trump is one hell of a guy.

Haha it’s fake, but funny

 

[Bengal71]

This is hilarious. He's dropping F bombs on Israel. You can tell he's been wanting to let that out for awhile.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

He is pissed off and frustrated with Israel. He really didn't want to get involved.

 

[Hayabusa]

Depends on where progress has been.

There are two bottlenecks for Nuclear Weapon development. Enrichment and Miniturisation

The first bottleneck is for a country to enrich over 60% ENU, you need 85+ to make nuclear weapon, but the key stage is 60, because that is the magic number to separate between U235 and U238. If you had achieve that, then from 60-85 would be a lot easier because you already get past that stage.

The second bottleneck comes with minturisation of warhead, because you can't put a giant fission seperator on a missile, that only have a limited space, unless you are putting it like WW2 style airdroppable bomb, which limited your range, you need to make the entire things from the cake to the trigger mechanism smaller that you can fit into a missile.

THe first stage will take you decades unless someone teraches you how to do it, Soviet Union takes 4 years to enrich to that level because of the scientist deflection to Soviet Union after WW2. As oppose to North Korea, which had taken almost 30 years.

The second stage can take you a few years to a decade or so, that is something even North Korea can't even do for now.

So depends on what status is the Iranian nuclear program, a few month set back can be large if they are in pre-60% enrichment, or it could be a small gap to fill if they had already go past 60%.

Thanks for the recap of information.

As far as IAEA is concerned. They detected at 83.7% , and that too in 2023. Probably past three first stage.

However 2nd stage is still in question.

"In 2023, the IAEA said uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – close to bomb-grade levels – were found at an Iranian nuclear facility. Its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% had also grown to 128.3 kilograms, the highest level then documented."

 

[mangekyo]

Here's a thought, even if Iran develops nuclear weapons and declares itself a nuclear state and Israel/US start bombing conventionally, would Iran retaliate with nukes? What would be Iran's nuclear threshold? Assassination of supreme leader/PM? Targeting of it's nuke sites? Or would the nuclear genie only come out in case of ground invasion...If the latter then why even have nukes?

nukes only deter against nukes

 

[pashtunkoum]

-If Fordow isn’t now a hive of activity? It’s done. If the regime isn’t frantically repairing the approach roads? It’s done. If they aren’t pulling all that earth crammed into the tunnel entrances? It’s done.

Mere power interruptions can destroy high-speed centrifuges. They HATE vibration of any kind. (12) 30,000 pound high-order explosive deep penetrators delivered a monumental amount of vibration, let alone explosive effects. My money is on Fordow being rendered useless. Activity- or the lack of it- will be the tell. I doubt the Iranians now have the time or the money to pretend to work on this facility.

What if they moved it out?

 

[gambit]

every time Israel does some sabotage or attack on Iran's nuclear program, it only advances the program

now the US destroyed Natanz and damaged Fordow (not severely, it seems)

Iran will move enrichment to the massive new Natanz site and undeclared sites (Qazvin?). enriched uranium was moved in advance and now no one knows where it is!

Natanz-1: 10-20m underground
Fordow: 80m under mountain

Natanz-2: 150-200m under mountain
Qazvin: 200m+ under mountain

Israel couldn't reach Natanz-1 let alone Fordow, so the US had to do it, and even the US couldn't destroy Fordow with 12 (!) GBU-57s at once. so they have no chance in Natanz-2 and Qazvin other than group ops.

How unstable do you think the ground is in Frodo? Or do you believe that despite all the seismic shock from the MOPs it is fine to re-enter?

 

[the saint]

While Iranian missiles specially hypersonic missiles excelled however in my humble opinion following are the dire needs of Iran:

1. Intelligence -> biggest disappointment, time and again Iranian intelligence keeps failing. Either they are the most inefficient wing of Iran or they're heavily infiltrated by traitors. If you have traitors in your army then no matter what advanced gadget you build or acquire it won't do any good.

Ancient Roman quote: "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within."

2. Air Defense -> not sure what happened to heavily touted air defense, were they crippled by israhelli attack post TP2 as claimed? or destroyed in the early hours of unprovoked attack?.. equitpmentwise this is the biggest disappointment for me. Looks like AD system only good against drones and complete failure against fighter jets (unless there is some evidence of F35 downing)

3. Fighter jets-> Iranians are too talented not to have indigenous fighter jets, Though in short term they need to acquire any 4.5++ higher jets they can get. But they need to have own fruitful fighter jets development program. I don't want to hear again that certain IRGC commander's claim that they have new fighter jets to display but can't do because of lack of permission from highest authority.

4. Nuclear weapon-> Iran didn't learn lesson from Iraq, Libya., nuke is necessary deterance against evil forces. The current war exposed Iranian leadership's lack of foresight. Nuke is essential for survival else USA/Israhell will continue hitting Iran with or without notice and excuse.

There are other needs but I'm skipping those for now, if these 4 are taken care of and Iran continues to build on their missiles technology they'll be fine and nobody would dare to attack them.

 

[Davey Crockett]

Ayatollah Khamenei does not tweet!!!

Trump has been posting a lot on his Truth Social.....

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

truthsocial.com

 

[SteppeWolff]

I have no objections to Iran purchasing JF-17s. Iran needs to rebuild its air fleet and JF-17s are a good candidate but what Iran needs more is J-35s and Awacs!

I agree that AWACS is a critical capability gap for Iran, as it will enhance situational awareness, command and control, and overall combat effectiveness of Iranian warfare capabilities. And regarding 5th generation fighters like the J35, while they would be a significant upgrade, Iran’s current air force infrastructure and pilot training are likely not yet optimized for such advanced systems.
A phased modernization approach would be more practical imo. Like the following:

1. 4.5th Generation Fighters should be acquired first. Aircraft like the JF-17 Block III (with AESA radar, PL-15 BVRAAMs, and modern avionics) or the J-10CE (with AESA radar and superior kinematic performance) would allow Iran to rebuild its fleet with credible and combat proven platforms while developing the necessary maintenance and operational expertise.
2. Integration with AWACS and Network Centric Warfare for example pairing these jets with AWACS would improve data linked coordination, forming a foundation for more advanced operations.
3. Once Iran has mastered 4.5 gen ops, only then integrating the J-35 would be a logical next step. China itself followed a similar progression from J10/J16 to J20.

The JF17 and J10CE would integrate well with a future J-35 fleet, as they share common Chinese avionics, weapons (PL10, PL15).