Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[j_hungary]

Thanks for the recap of information.

As far as IAEA is concerned. They detected at 83.7% , and that too in 2023. Probably past three first stage.

However 2nd stage is still in question.

"In 2023, the IAEA said uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity – close to bomb-grade levels – were found at an Iranian nuclear facility. Its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% had also grown to 128.3 kilograms, the highest level then documented."

Well, they found 83.7% fuel particule does not necessarily mean they are at 83.7% enrichment cycle, it just mean they have material that has 83.7% U235 in it, I mean if you pick a spot in the centre of the centrifuge, it ALWAYS have the highest amount of the % of the cake because that's where the U235 start mixing instead of separating (Again the concentration of U235 will be the biggest in the middle of the entire cake), it means that it could be a by-product of fission, it could also mean they reach the 60% +. It only mean that it is unlikely it was in low percentage,

You need to examine the cake instead of the particle left in the centrifuge to know how far the enrichment process has gone. I remember they found 45 or something % 10 years ago on a 22% fuel they were showing to the IAEA

 

[Bengal71]

either referring to new Natanz site (depth of 150m vs 80m for Fordow) or undisclosed Qazvin site (depth of 200m+)

US used half their inventory of GBU-57 to only partially damage Fordow, it seems even the centrifuges there survived and the nuclear material was evacuated in advance

don't think US has enough GBU-57s for the other sites...

150M can't be penetrated by GBU-57. The only way is to penetrate 60M using the GBU-57 and detonating a nuke under the 60M depth and the resulting earthquake do the job. But using a nuke even underground is unlikely.

 

[RealNapster]

Oh bhai, why they didn’t get planes and radars and SAMS from Chinese during all these past years?

Soch na bhai…….

I will ask Iran and let you know.

 

[Lulldapull]

I will ask Iran and let you know.

You know me no?

I don’t lie no?

Come on no?

 

[RealNapster]

You know me no?

I don’t lie no?

Come on no?

I told you stay away from the under construction building, or at least wear a safety helmet....

 

[j_hungary]

150M can't be penetrated by GBU-57. The only way is to penetrate 60M using the GBU-57 and detonating a nuke under the 60M depth and the resulting earthquake do the job. But using a nuke even underground is unlikely.

You can drop a GBU-57 on top of the crater of a GBU 57 and you get 70% of the penetration power, IIRC, they dropped 3 in Fordo. So if they really are dropping it on tantem, it can reach the depth

 

[Hayabusa]

Well, they found 83.7% fuel particule does not necessarily mean they are at 83.7% enrichment cycle, it just mean they have material that has 83.7% U235 in it, I mean if you pick a spot in the centre of the centrifuge, it ALWAYS have the highest amount of the % of the cake because that's where the U235 start mixing instead of separating (Again the concentration of U235 will be the biggest in the middle of the entire cake), it means that it could be a by-product of fission, it could also mean they reach the 60% +. It only mean that it is unlikely it was in low percentage,

You need to examine the cake instead of the particle left in the centrifuge to know how far the enrichment process has gone. I remember they found 45 or something % 10 years ago on a 22% fuel they were showing to the IAEA

Keep in mind, that report dates back to 2023. At the time, the concern centered on an estimated 130kg of 60% enriched uranium. That figure has since surged to around 400kg.

While I’m not a nuclear expert, it would be naive to assume they haven’t already enriched some of it to 85% by now cinsiderinf as you said, easier to enrich from 60% to 85% then 0 to 60%.

But to stay focused on my main point: despite claims of a significant strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure targeting both facilities and expertise their own intelligence assessments concede that the setback amounts to only a few months, not decades.

Ultimately, we may never truly know the full extent of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, especially with the possibility of undisclosed black sites scattered across its vast territory. One thing seems certain Fordow will not be the last underground facility they willl build.

 

[StrategicBear]

Next time destroy Dimona if they attack Iran again.

I am sick and tired of seeing Israel bombing Muslim countries.

Just wipe them out no matter what the consequences the next time. The world will thank Iran for getting rid of such a Satanic State.

 

[Hakwa Nadro]

Was the nuclear card used by the Israeli Occupation Forces to force a ceasefire in the current conflict just like in 1973 when they were losing? If Iran has the capacity they should test the bomb now.

 

[Blueishere]

Humanity has yet to triumph Mother Nature.

150M can't be penetrated by GBU-57. The only way is to penetrate 60M using the GBU-57 and detonating a nuke under the 60M depth and the resulting earthquake do the job. But using a nuke even underground is unlikely.

 

[gambit]

Israel and Iran "don't know what the f*** they're doing" - Donald J Trump.

Trump raged at Iran and Israel as he left for the NATO conference onboard Air Force 1.

Ever consider the possibility that this so called 'raged' is performative? Bump needs to show the world, not just Israel and Iran, that he is a 'strong man', like how he admires dictators.

 

[j_hungary]

Keep in mind, that report dates back to 2023. At the time, the concern centered on an estimated 130kg of 60% enriched uranium. That figure has since surged to around 400kg.

While I’m not a nuclear expert, it would be naive to assume they haven’t already enriched some of it to 85% by now cinsiderinf as you said, easier to enrich from 60% to 85% then 0 to 60%.

But to stay focused on my main point: despite claims of a significant strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure targeting both facilities and expertise their own intelligence assessments concede that the setback amounts to only a few months, not decades.

Ultimately, we may never truly know the full extent of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, especially with the possibility of undisclosed black sites scattered across its vast territory. One thing seems certain Fordow will not be the last underground facility they willl build.

I don't tend to speculate when I don't know, I will say I just don't know.

Did Iran have 85% HEU? Maybe, I don't know, and no one is know for sure, the issue here is, going back to your previous question, now assuming that the cake is intact and store somewhere safe, and assuming you have stored all the test log, the important question now is, whether the centrifuge stopped or damaged. Because it's not plug and play, you can't put it back up and put the uranium cake back in and it goes back from wherever you take it out before. So if that 6 months or so delay is on the fuel side (ie, the centrifuge is not damage and you just taken the fuel out), that's easy to retify, you just need to refuel the centrifuge, but if the centrifuge was damaged and need 6 months to repair? That's going take a long time to recalibrate the centrifuge after making it operational again, sure, it will not be decades like it was before, but it is going to be year, if not years for Iran to pick back up the process. And again, that is assuming the fuel cake is intact

It didn't matter if they had a replacement facilities, because you are going to need to fine tune the centrifuge to spin in a particular way to keep the U238 separating from U235, that's going to take a long time to do because you are talking about adjustment in micron unit

 

[Garcia Sea]

Honestly, after witnessing this conflict, I’ve slightly revised my opinion of Zelensky, whom I used to dislike.
Despite losing vast territories in just a few days, facing an onslaught on his capital, and enduring intense airstrikes, he chose to fight relentlessly, mobilized his forces, and launched a counterattack without retreating a single step.
If Zelensky had been as cowardly as the Ayatollahs, he would have surrendered immediately, and Ukraine would have been occupied by Russia almost without a fight. And he would have justified it as a rational choice.

In the end, more than equipment or national strength, it's the leader’s will to fight that matters most. When the leader is gripped by fear and on the verge of surrendering, no soldier wants to die in a futile battle.

 

[SD 10]

either referring to new Natanz site (depth of 150m vs 80m for Fordow) or undisclosed Qazvin site (depth of 200m+)

US used half their inventory of GBU-57 to only partially damage Fordow, it seems even the centrifuges there survived and the nuclear material was evacuated in advance

don't think US has enough GBU-57s for the other sites...

They need to enrich the uranium without running their big mouth.

 

[Ё-МАЁ]

The book's title is 'The Bomb In My Garden'. A memoir by Mahdi Obeidi, Iraq's chief nuclear scientist.

The 'bomb' that Obeidi referenced was a pair of centrifuges to separate U-235 from U-238. Saddam Hussein ordered Obeidi to bury the centrifuges in Obeidi's home garden to hide them from US soldiers looking for anything relating to Iraq's nuclear weapons program.

Centrifuges must be designed exactly for a specific purpose. U-235 and U-238 are atomic weights. That is how close the isotopes are to each other. U-235 is the isotope that can go 'boom'. So, if a country is trying to get centrifuges to separate uranium isotopes, it will be assumed the purpose is to create a nuclear warhead.

All of this may be true if it were based on reliable facts. But the modern world is based on lies. The war in Ukraine is proof of that. Or the downing of MH17.