I don't think Russia wants all of Ukraine, only the primarily ethnic Russian regions.
Because Ukraine fortify all the Donbass frontline for 10 bloody years, and it take 3 years to Russia to pass it...
This is not un Map game, it is hell.
Those position whern't suposed to fall...
People like me are just witnessing from Kiev side ! They're not "giving up the ground for time" they are losing ground. They are losing this war.
Lots of people are not happy about it, just stating a fact.
We will find out next week’s meeting Trump and Putin. The Ukrainian outcome!
There is a reason why I just show you 6 pictures instead of typing a lot of words. Because what I will say is what I had said times and times again, and I have been saying this for the last 3 years, that's the reason why I don't want to post here anymore, because it will be like this in the foreseeable future.
Fact is, Ukraine is not going to withdraw its ambition of joining NATO unless there is a significant change in the frontline, which mean Russia would have to be over half of Ukraine plus for that to happen. Russia, on the other hand, will not stop until Ukraine either forces a election and ousted Zelenskyy or Ukraine is under Russian control; otherwise, this is not going to be a win for them, again, taken 20% of Ukraine while the other 80 goes into NATO is not a win for Russia, not after over a million casualty.
Ukraine is losing land, yes, but at a rate acceptable for them to hold on because even if things remain unchanged (which actually we see Russian progress starting to diminish in Ukraine cumulatively), it will take years, if not a decade, for Russia to take the whole Donbas. This means they have time to wait for at least 2026, for a more favorable US government (again, Trump is looking at a wipeout in 2026, in either the Senate or the House, or both; he can't hold both with less than 40% favorable views).
On the other hand, that's if we assume Russia can hold on to what they have now, if Ukraine is fighting a partisan warfare
INSIDE Russia, you can bet your bottom dollars they are fighting one inside the occupation zone, which means Russians need to continue exerting control in the region that they had taken from Ukraine. People failed to see one thing: it's a lot easier to take land than to keep it. Again, it took us 37 days to take the entire Afghanistan, but we held it for 20 years. For Russia, it's almost 3.5 years now and they are still trying to take down a country, we are still in active warfare in Ukraine 3.5 years later. That is not a good outlook for any occupation if Ukraine decided to fight for it, and again, if they are doing those BTS stuff INSIDE Russia, there are no reason to believe they are just going to let Russia control the occupied territories.
So the simple fact is, Russia cannot take the entire Ukraine, and Ukraine cannot push the Russians out, and for any peace talk to hold, one side HAD to have some advantage, neither side have them, that's why I said, it depends on who have more time on their side, in this case, Ukraine have land to consider, Russia had money to consider, waging a war is not cheap, can they keep on financing this war for another 3 years? Not with the current oil price, they may be able to do it when oil price is around 80 or 90 a barrel, not when it was under $60 now, and it's going to stay that way until at least 2028 until Trump goes, so who bleeds quicker? Ukrainian losing land quicker in the next few years? Or Russian is bleeding more money in the next few years?
And I am not going to post this again, because this is what I had said it for 3 years, I was saying the same thing last year in April before Russian is making a push into Provosk, the same thing when Ukraine counter attacked into Kursk in August, and then the same thing when Trump take over and withdraw support and Ukraine loses Kursk this Feburary, til today, I am saying the same thing when Provosk still holding, I am not going to repeat this every 6 months.
