Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[kastor ville]

They bombed Iran already and oil prices didn't factor into Trump's calculus.

Are you kidding me? There are two reasons why Tehran is not looking like Gaza right now.....One is the oil prices, the second is that US (Trump) is afraid of a bigger regional war that could engulf all the other energy producing countries......which bring us back to the first reason. That's all.
For clarity, there was White House briefing during the 12 day war, shortly after the US bombed the nuclear facilities. It was an intelligence briefing regarding Iran's activity at their naval port, they were afraid Iran was loading ships with mines to use in the Strait......I guess it never came to pass. But, funny thing is Trump tweeted these right after that briefing on the 24th.

"Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired – 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

"CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL. On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!"


Does that make sense to you? He was threating Iran with total obliteration, he's on video saying he would not accept a ceasefire, only a total surrender, just days before.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Hmm.... Critical thinking tic-toc tic-toc
Oh yeah, because Iran is the only country that is standing in the way of that tiny country, and Iran is challenging that tiny country.
I wonder why you put your thumb on the scale. Anyone can go back to look at your timeline.

there are other threads to discuss Israel's war with Arabs

I encourage everyone to look at my 'timeline', especially you, you might learn something

 

[Persian Gulf]

Oil prices jumped by $2-3 last time. Nobody takes Iran serious when it says that it's going to shut the Strait of Hormuz, or attack Arab oil installations.

When you overuse a threat and never deliver, markets stop responding to it.

the same is true in relation to snapback and the NPT. Iran made a lot of noise that if snapback was invoked we would leave the NPT. but now they don't say that, instead the official line is that Chapter VII / snapback is not a threat any more since we are already in a war and the consequence for the Europeans will simply be that they will be 'irrelevant', whatever that means.

 

[ShapurII]

Are you kidding me? There are two reasons why Tehran is not looking like Gaza right now.....One is the oil prices, the second is that US (Trump) is afraid of a bigger regional war that could engulf all the other energy producing countries......which bring us back to the first reason. That's all.

I disagree. I think the US, and not only Trump, is afraid of Iran falling into chaos like Afghanistan. That's why they insist on replacing the Ayatollahs with someone like Reza Pahlavi or the reformists through a color revolution or a coup, rather than a full-scale invasion of Iran.

Invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan didn't turn out well. Iran is bigger than both of them combined and Iranians remain quite nationalistic when facing a common enemy. They'll need to station troops in whatever remains of Iran and control a country of 90 million people, who have had a history of anti-American sentiments for the last half a century.

The US has consistently been one of the largest producers of oil and energy. It does rely on oil prices anymore. If anything, rising oil prices will make extraction of unconventional oil more profitable. This is why the US doesn't like oil prices to fall below $40 bbl.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

A shame. Did older or newer missiles do this missile strike? If this failed missile strike was a result of newer missiles, then Iran might as well give up fighting Israel altogether.

But Iranian missiles were able to hit many other critical sites, and the Israelis are not disclosing them. It looks like the #IRGCASF compensates this somewhat larger CEP by launching several missiles at the high value target, where the difference in targeting takes into account the CEP of the particular missile type.

Btw, it is the older missiles that have this issue but newer hypersonic missiles are far more accurate, and it was these missiles that took down the Weissman nuclear research center and other critical sites.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

But Iranian missiles were able to hit many other critical sites, and the Israelis are not disclosing them. It looks like the #IRGCASF compensates this somewhat larger CEP by launching several missiles at the high value target, where the difference in targeting takes into account the CEP of the particular missile type.

Btw, it is the older missiles that have this issue but newer hypersonic missiles are far more accurate, and it was these missiles that took down the Weissman nuclear research center and other critical sites.

The Iranians smashed up the israelis pretty bad. There is a REASON why the israelis stopped talking about and mentioning Iran. The israelis are ONLY capable of killing babies and unarmed civilians. They can't fight REAL men and REAL militaries.

 

[Liquidator]

The Iranians smashed up the israelis pretty bad. There is a REASON why the israelis stopped talking about and mentioning Iran. The israelis are ONLY capable of killing babies and unarmed civilians. They can't fight REAL men and REAL militaries.

Israel got smashed up pretty bad.

Their daddy rescued them.

But....for them, this isn't over. They are not a peaceful race by design. They are malignant. You cannot kindly ask a malignancy to stop spreading....it's only knows to spread.

Chemotherapy is painful, but necessary. Chemotherapy may kill you, may leave you a husk of the person you were before, but leaving it untreated will kill you for sure.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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this is what is at stake for Iranians

this is why it is so dangerous that the IR is so incompetent. the stakes are very high.

 

[lightning f57]

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this is what is at stake for Iranians

this is why it is so dangerous that the IR is so incompetent. the stakes are very high.

At the same time it seems this is the best that Iranian leadership has to offer right now, so despite their incompetence and hubris of these leaders the Iranian nation needs to unite and be behind their leadership otherwise mayhem and chaos awaits.

 

[Persian Gulf]

At the same time it seems this is the best that Iranian leadership has to offer right now, so despite their incompetence and hubris of these leaders the Iranian nation needs to unite and be behind their leadership otherwise mayhem and chaos awaits.

unite but still critique them strongly to force them to improve ...

an incompetent man with no criticism at all is the worst kind for everyone

 

[Nuffle]

"Foreign Policy reports that Iran is preparing for a decisive war with Israel, one that could erupt as early as late August or by December."
Translation: Israel will launch the war under the pretext of a preemptive strike to prevent Iran from attacking the Jewish state.

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It will be >September

 

[kastor ville]

I disagree. I think the US, and not only Trump, is afraid of Iran falling into chaos like Afghanistan. That's why they insist on replacing the Ayatollahs with someone like Reza Pahlavi or the reformists through a color revolution or a coup, rather than a full-scale invasion of Iran.

Invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan didn't turn out well. Iran is bigger than both of them combined and Iranians remain quite nationalistic when facing a common enemy. They'll need to station troops in whatever remains of Iran and control a country of 90 million people, who have had a history of anti-American sentiments for the last half a century.

The US has consistently been one of the largest producers of oil and energy. It does rely on oil prices anymore. If anything, rising oil prices will make extraction of unconventional oil more profitable. This is why the US doesn't like oil prices to fall below $40 bbl.

I respect you disagreement, but I follow up with the question if the US was afraid of a failed state why was the regime change one of the core reasons for the attack? It doesn't add up.....
Again, I gave a clear time line with Trump's own words.....he had said, Iran would be obliterated....and he doubled down when asked about a ceasefire, he said "We are not looking for a Ceasefire" He then tweeted that Iran would be obliterated........as I said in the other post, after the bombing, as Iran was readying it's retaliation, his entire tone changed....all of a sudden a ceasefire was ok, he even goes on to say "God Bless Iran"..... You don't find this bizarre?

Donald Trump not seeking ceasefire but wants ‘complete give-up’ by Iran

US president says Iran must stop uranium enrichment entirely for conflict to end, as Iran says it is open to talks

www.theguardian.com

 

[ShapurII]

I respect you disagreement, but I follow up with the question if the US was afraid of a failed state why was the regime change one of the core reasons for the attack? It doesn't add up.....

It adds up perfectly. The US will be forced to deploy troops in the Middle East to protect the newly established regime and the US doesn't want to do that. The US deployed 150K soldiers in Iraq. Back then, Iraq had 25 million people. Iran is nearly 4 times more populous and over 3 times larger. They'll need at least 200K deployed troops in Iran (assuming the IRGC and Basij as main components of a potential Iranian resistance completely collapse) and they do not want to do that when their main focus should be China.

Again, I gave a clear time line with Trump's own words.....he had said, Iran would be obliterated....and he doubled down when asked about a ceasefire, he said "We are not looking for a Ceasefire" He then tweeted that Iran would be obliterated........as I said in the other post, after the bombing, as Iran was readying it's retaliation, his entire tone changed....all of a sudden a ceasefire was ok, he even goes on to say "God Bless Iran"..... You don't find this bizarre?

You really think Iran had a plan for retaliation? What was the plan? Launch more missiles at Qatar?

 

[kastor ville]

It adds up perfectly. The US will be forced to deploy troops in the Middle East to protect the newly established regime and the US doesn't want to do that. The US deployed 150K soldiers in Iraq. Back then, Iraq had 25 million people. Iran is nearly 4 times more populous and over 3 times larger. They'll need at least 200K deployed troops in Iran (assuming the IRGC and Basij as main components of a potential Iranian resistance completely collapse) and they do not want to do that when their main focus should be China.


You really think Iran had a plan for retaliation? What was the plan? Launch more missiles at Qatar?

Wow, your missing the signs right in front of you.......if the US didn't want to deploy troops or if it was afraid of a big failed state.....why did it go along with the regime change plan? This is absolutely a big risk of that plan.....a vacuum left by the IRI could've led to total chaos........I don't think they gave a shit what would happen to Iran if it falls, did they give a hoot about Syria? Or Libya? NO!
This ceasefire was about the oil shock.......one can argue the second reason is that Israel AD were depleted and they didn't want to sustain major damage that they couldn't hide from the world.

2 days later after the intelligence report.....we had a ceasefire.

Iran reportedly moves to close Strait of Hormuz after US attacks

The Iranian Parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil choke point, after the United States bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, according to Iranian state m...

www.yahoo.com

 

[BigMela2onin]

I respect you disagreement, but I follow up with the question if the US was afraid of a failed state why was the regime change one of the core reasons for the attack? It doesn't add up.....
Again, I gave a clear time line with Trump's own words.....he had said, Iran would be obliterated....and he doubled down when asked about a ceasefire, he said "We are not looking for a Ceasefire" He then tweeted that Iran would be obliterated........as I said in the other post, after the bombing, as Iran was readying it's retaliation, his entire tone changed....all of a sudden a ceasefire was ok, he even goes on to say "God Bless Iran"..... You don't find this bizarre?

Donald Trump not seeking ceasefire but wants ‘complete give-up’ by Iran

US president says Iran must stop uranium enrichment entirely for conflict to end, as Iran says it is open to talks

www.theguardian.com

He though the jews managed to kill pezeshkian and khamenei in the north Tehran attack. He tweeted unconditional surrender and left some meeting only to fly back to washington and find out they failed. Then he changed his tune. Trump is about as competent as your average IR official, he's just as retarded and cowardly.
He went along with the plan because he's a pedophile and the jews have videos of him, they told him "we're doing this" and he was forced to acceed to their plan.