Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

@Persian Gulf

ثابتی: جاسوسان به تهران آمدند / قطعیت جنگ بعدی با این توافق

امیرحسین ثابتی نماینده تهران و چهره‌ای کاملاً کاملاً نزدیک به سعید جلیلی در مجلس گفت: «آقای لاریجانی از ابتدا با مردم صحبت کنید و اجازه ندهید ابهام صورت بگیرد. هنوز دو ماه از قانون مجلس برای تعلیق همکاری با آژانس نگذشته جاسوسان آژانس در پوشش بازرس به ایران آمدند. شما گفتید به حساب گروسی میرسم...

www.tabnak.ir

 

[FUB]

It is true that Russia has been consistently dragging its feet to assist Iran when it comes to Israel. They dragged their feet over S300 missiles for over a decade and only delivered it after Iran sued them in ICJ courts. The SU-35 deal also did not materialize. So it is obvious Russia was not genuine in its relationship with Iran while Iran provided them with Shaheed drones and the technology to manufacture them. Let us not forget the powerful Zionist Jewish lobby in Russia, and this could be the main reason why Russia plays double game in its relationship with Iran.

Besides, the guy that made the below allegation is a parliamentarian. So it is within his right to raise the issue within the Iranian parliament. He is most likely pressuring the Executive branch of the govt to explain why they see Russia as an ally when it backstabs them repeatedly.

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You missed the buried lead. The more you search, the more you realize that nepotism is just the icing on the cake. This is an establishment that had Hassan Rohani, a cleric in charge of Air Defense. Let's talk facts. Putin said that Iran does not have and did not want a security pact with Russia. Since 1990, the only countries that have given Iran access to modern platforms are? Russia and, to some extent, China. Do you know how many Iranians study at Russian Universities? Almost ten thousand. Iranians are barred from most critical studies abroad in Western Europe and the US. Russia built the Nuclear reactor in Busher and is currently building at least two other reactors. Most of Iran's AD is based on Russian AD. The future is with China. If the only cha/nce Iran has to get access to modern fighters, AWACS, and AD is through China. This regime is too corrupt to act in the National interest. Two months after the war, and it seems 2024/2025. Iranian students are banned because they have not learnt anything. Let's hope that behind the scenes, they are making the right decisions.

 

[Persian Gulf]

@Persian Gulf

ثابتی: جاسوسان به تهران آمدند / قطعیت جنگ بعدی با این توافق

امیرحسین ثابتی نماینده تهران و چهره‌ای کاملاً کاملاً نزدیک به سعید جلیلی در مجلس گفت: «آقای لاریجانی از ابتدا با مردم صحبت کنید و اجازه ندهید ابهام صورت بگیرد. هنوز دو ماه از قانون مجلس برای تعلیق همکاری با آژانس نگذشته جاسوسان آژانس در پوشش بازرس به ایران آمدند. شما گفتید به حساب گروسی میرسم...

www.tabnak.ir

the problem is that the SNSC has approved this, so they should be braver and aim their anger at SNSC rather than Araghchi who is just a diplomat pursuing the objectives he is told to pursue by the SNSC

 

[Persian Gulf]

there are some nuances with the UNSC snapback timing

triggering the snapback means notifying the Joint Commission (JCPOA member states) that it believes Iran is in material non-compliance with its obligation. this alone does not automatically result in UNSC resolutions/sanctions being reimposed.

the next important step is for the invoking state(s) to notify the UNSC that it believes Iran is in material non-compliance with its obligations. theoretically, it can do this immediately after triggering snapback. this will trigger a 30 day period for the UNSC to pass a resolution to continue sanctions relief (this can be vetoed / blocked by the US).

if such a resolution is not passed within 30 days, all nuclear UNSC resolutions/sanctions against Iran 'snap back' into force. a strict reading of the text suggests that once referred to the UNSC, not even the invoking state can withdraw it (at this point Iran is doomed as the US will simply block any attempted resolution to continue sanctions relief).

however, the JCPOA also provides for mechanisms to resolve the triggering state's concerns with Iran's compliance, which could last up to 50 days. importantly, the complaining state is not required to pursue these mechanisms.

this means the Europeans can trigger snapback (notify the Joint Commission it thinks Iran is in material non compliance) without starting the 30 day clock, giving room to negotiations with Iran to reach a deal before it reaches that stage. however, the Europeans would have flexibility on whether and for how long to try to resolve these concerns with Iran. overall, this places Iran in a very unfortunate situation.

at this point, the best case scenario for Iran is that Russia and China may refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the snap back and de facto continue to trade with Iran. however, past experience teaches us that UNSC sanctions are a serious barrier to trade with Russia and China, and at best they remain a strong justification for those countries to refuse to do business with Iran.

@ShapurII

 

[Arash]

It's too late. What good would leaving the NPT do now? It will just invite more air strikes and sanctions, and the country will fester like 1990s Iraq.

Do you want to live through that?

Just accept the loss, sign a deal, get whatever sanctions relief you can, and rebuild. The next 10 years, Iran is going to have to just keep its head down and focus on rebuilding its economy and military might. Not starting a war with this Zionist empire.

It's that, or continue this charade of pointless negotiations, look weak, get embarressed, get more sanctions, and on top of it, get bombed again. Does that sound appealing to you?

No, it doesn't "invite" strikes, if they want to resume the war they won't need any political justification, they have already removed the masks and showed they don't care about diplomacy....

 

[kastor ville]

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looks like IR is about to capitulate. and all this just to DELAY E3's ability to invoke snapback. and if Iran doesn't capitulate on enrichment inside Iran with the US by the new deadline then they will invoke snapback anyway.

It's not capitulation...it's playing the only card you got left. Snapback is looming....this is the only way to delay it. This is how the West has outsmarted these amateurs....bombing, assassinations, sanctions, and now snapback....what a sad joke. Absolutely no plan of action...no vision, or grand strategy. Just bluster.

 

[Bharatah]

—️// BREAKING: The E3 will initiate the process of activating the 'snapback' mechanism of the JCPOA to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran tomorrow - Reuters

And I.R. is still negotiating.

It's time for new fucking management

The E3 violated the JCPO, so (by law) they cannot activate SNAPBACK. Russia has already introduced a draft resolution to stop this.

What could happen is that the media will create a narrative of approval, without practical approval, such as that "there is no genocide in Gaza and Israel" is defending itself.

International law has rules: The attempt (at an illegal SNAPBACK) will likely result in a stalemate in the Security Council, deepening the division between the West (E3 + US) and the other signatories (Russia, China, Iran), without necessarily resulting in the effective and universal reinstatement of all UN sanctions.

NOTE: The most likely scenario is an unprecedented legal and political impasse in the UN Security Council (UNSC), quite possibly resulting in the definitive collapse of the JCPOA and a crisis of legitimacy of Resolution 2231 itself.

 

[Shafagh]

The E3 violated the JCPO, so (by law) they cannot activate SNAPBACK. Russia has already introduced a draft resolution to stop this.

What could happen is that the media will create a narrative of approval, without practical approval, such as that "there is no genocide in Gaza and Israel" is defending itself.

International law has rules: The attempt (at an illegal SNAPBACK) will likely result in a stalemate in the Security Council, deepening the division between the West (E3 + US) and the other signatories (Russia, China, Iran), without necessarily resulting in the effective and universal reinstatement of all UN sanctions.

NOTE: The most likely scenario is an unprecedented legal and political impasse in the UN Security Council (UNSC), quite possibly resulting in the definitive collapse of the JCPOA and a crisis of legitimacy of Resolution 2231 itself.

Come on man, rules went out the window the day Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and unilaterally reinstated sweeping sanctions.

 

[BigMela2onin]

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[ShapurII]

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Not just Zarif. Larijani as well.
Larijani was the Head of the Parliament that passed JCPOA in 20 minutes.

Not only he is not in prison now, but he was promoted too.

 

[Sarhang]

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چرا ظریف؟ آخه ظریف چه کاره است؟‌ بسه دیگه از این نیرنگ بازی .بسه. مردمو ول کنید. مگه ظریف می‌تونه آب بخوره بدون اجازه مقام معظم رهبری؟ چرا شما می‌خواهید هنوز مردمو گول بزنید

 

[ShapurII]

چرا ظریف؟ آخه ظریف چه کاره است؟‌ بسه دیگه از این نیرنگ بازی .بسه. مردمو ول کنید. مگه ظریف می‌تونه آب بخوره بدون اجازه مقام معظم رهبری؟ چرا شما می‌خواهید هنوز مردمو گول بزنید

البته ظریف کونده پرروترین فرد این جماعت هست واقعاً
تو چشم مردم نگاه کرد می‌خندید می‌گفت اسنپ بک اصلاً وجود خارجی نداره​

 

[BigMela2onin]

چرا ظریف؟ آخه ظریف چه کاره است؟‌ بسه دیگه از این نیرنگ بازی .بسه. مردمو ول کنید. مگه ظریف می‌تونه آب بخوره بدون اجازه مقام معظم رهبری؟ چرا شما می‌خواهید هنوز مردمو گول بزنید

Zarif is one traitor in a government full of traitors, they should all hang together.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The E3 violated the JCPO, so (by law) they cannot activate SNAPBACK. Russia has already introduced a draft resolution to stop this.

you continue to insist on this nonsense theory

Russia introduced a draft resolution to DELAY snapback deadline, implicitly conceding that the Europeans CAN invoke the snapback

 

[Persian Gulf]

چرا ظریف؟ آخه ظریف چه کاره است؟‌ بسه دیگه از این نیرنگ بازی .بسه. مردمو ول کنید. مگه ظریف می‌تونه آب بخوره بدون اجازه مقام معظم رهبری؟ چرا شما می‌خواهید هنوز مردمو گول بزنید

Zarif is their perfect scapegoat

these days their scapegoat is Pezeshkian or now that Khamenei said he supports him it became Araghchi