Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

The future is with China.
If only IR had competent leaders there would be no need for discussion with the decaying powers of the past .
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
IMG_9293.jpeg
 
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
 
Immortals said:
It’s the whole system, much like the USSR if the system doesn’t work then everything decays. It’s not reformists, conservatives, Mullahs, etc it’s the collective at the end of the day. The reformists didn’t tell IRGC to neglect the airforce. They didn’t tell IRGC to build a ventilation shaft exposed to aerial bombers. They didn’t tell them to limit missile range to 2000KM and build everything in the west. Everyone made their own respective mistakes the past couple decades.

IR of Iran survived as long as it did from oil revenues (European/Asian nations didn’t cut Iranian oil till 2008 and beyond).

The rise of fracking oil technology also hurt iran in many ways because suddenly the U.S. was #1 in oil production and the Middle East no longer had a choke hold on oil. This meant the U.S. didn’t need the Middle East precious resource as desperately as it did in the 1970’s and 80’d. This was obvious by the Red Sea traffic being down 85% and Israel and Iran exchanging blows and oil not even crossing $90/barrel.

I am not sure if the IRI could even imagine such a day could come when it’s energy supply would be bought by only one country (China).

Right now Iran is becoming like Iraq under Saddam, Syria under imposed revolution, Afghanistan under Taliban, etc the system is barely holding it together and people are just SURVIVING not thriving. Sure Iran has made its share of advancements (Iranian ingenuity), but there is so much corruption and self inflicted wounds, we can’t all blame it on sanctions.

We have fallen behind in critical fields of the future like nuclear, fusion, semiconductor, AI hyperscalers, robotics, and more. With no strategic alliances (say China) we have no one to take our hand and raise us up economically, like the U.S. did to Japan and Korea after WW2 and Korean War respectively.

The resistance economy failed miserably, the IRGC alumni and the big factions used their power to enrich themselves from sanctions busting and supplying the people goods. Rather than squeezing other countries for money they squeezed the people.

Toman today is 100x worse off than 20 years ago (100,000 vs 900). This whole thing is unsustainable.

I think reformists are no different then the voices in the USSR that realized fighting the West and spending like the Empire on things like space race and massive military footprints was not sustainable under a communist system that didn’t have the same innovation and industrial production density as the American empire.

Iran too is learning that it cannot stand up forever against the West and be shunned out of the global economy and expect to not decay and spiral downward on the backs of corruption and theft.

There were always only two real options:

1) fight a pre emptive war where you inflict enough damage on the enemy to demonstrate your strength and negotiate a permanent solution on equal footing (ie after Hamas October surprise or in 2020 before losing Solemani)

2) Capitulation and a grand agreement where you drop the animosity and reform and reintegrate. Khamenai never wanted this because an Iran that is at peace with America and Israel is a republic that cannot survive because its entire existence was predicted on perpetual Cold War like conflict with these two countries.

Nukes wouldn’t have solved either situation it would have only prolonged the problem and in the end you would have to negotiate your nukes away to get any tangible agreement like Ukraine did or turn into North Korea and become a hermit country.

Right now it appears Iran’s plan is to hope the U.S. collapses in the next 5 years or some incompetent leader comes in and bows to Iranian pressure. Neither seem realistic.

Getting nukes now wouldn’t get the sanctions or embargo off us, would likely make it worse. At best we would have to negotiate those away as well.
Click to expand...
Yup, US Fracking Tech really changed the game.

This shows that Technology can always find a way out of a predicament, and Arab and Middle Eastern leaders strategy of only relying on "God-given" natural resources only for wealth and development without Human Resource-driven Science and Tech STEM fields are bound to fail and unravel one day......
 
Immortals said:
It’s the whole system, much like the USSR if the system doesn’t work then everything decays. It’s not reformists, conservatives, Mullahs, etc it’s the collective at the end of the day. The reformists didn’t tell IRGC to neglect the airforce. They didn’t tell IRGC to build a ventilation shaft exposed to aerial bombers. They didn’t tell them to limit missile range to 2000KM and build everything in the west. Everyone made their own respective mistakes the past couple decades.

IR of Iran survived as long as it did from oil revenues (European/Asian nations didn’t cut Iranian oil till 2008 and beyond).

The rise of fracking oil technology also hurt iran in many ways because suddenly the U.S. was #1 in oil production and the Middle East no longer had a choke hold on oil. This meant the U.S. didn’t need the Middle East precious resource as desperately as it did in the 1970’s and 80’d. This was obvious by the Red Sea traffic being down 85% and Israel and Iran exchanging blows and oil not even crossing $90/barrel.

I am not sure if the IRI could even imagine such a day could come when it’s energy supply would be bought by only one country (China).

Right now Iran is becoming like Iraq under Saddam, Syria under imposed revolution, Afghanistan under Taliban, etc the system is barely holding it together and people are just SURVIVING not thriving. Sure Iran has made its share of advancements (Iranian ingenuity), but there is so much corruption and self inflicted wounds, we can’t all blame it on sanctions.

We have fallen behind in critical fields of the future like nuclear, fusion, semiconductor, AI hyperscalers, robotics, and more. With no strategic alliances (say China) we have no one to take our hand and raise us up economically, like the U.S. did to Japan and Korea after WW2 and Korean War respectively.

The resistance economy failed miserably, the IRGC alumni and the big factions used their power to enrich themselves from sanctions busting and supplying the people goods. Rather than squeezing other countries for money they squeezed the people.

Toman today is 100x worse off than 20 years ago (100,000 vs 900). This whole thing is unsustainable.

I think reformists are no different then the voices in the USSR that realized fighting the West and spending like the Empire on things like space race and massive military footprints was not sustainable under a communist system that didn’t have the same innovation and industrial production density as the American empire.

Iran too is learning that it cannot stand up forever against the West and be shunned out of the global economy and expect to not decay and spiral downward on the backs of corruption and theft.

There were always only two real options:

1) fight a pre emptive war where you inflict enough damage on the enemy to demonstrate your strength and negotiate a permanent solution on equal footing (ie after Hamas October surprise or in 2020 before losing Solemani)

2) Capitulation and a grand agreement where you drop the animosity and reform and reintegrate. Khamenai never wanted this because an Iran that is at peace with America and Israel is a republic that cannot survive because its entire existence was predicted on perpetual Cold War like conflict with these two countries.

Nukes wouldn’t have solved either situation it would have only prolonged the problem and in the end you would have to negotiate your nukes away to get any tangible agreement like Ukraine did or turn into North Korea and become a hermit country.

Right now it appears Iran’s plan is to hope the U.S. collapses in the next 5 years or some incompetent leader comes in and bows to Iranian pressure. Neither seem realistic.

Getting nukes now wouldn’t get the sanctions or embargo off us, would likely make it worse. At best we would have to negotiate those away as well.
Click to expand...
Nukes give Iran the possibility to hit Israeli critical infrastructure without risking getting nuked. Without strategic nukes, Iran will always be restricted to symbolic responses that will fail to establish deterrence (Ain al-Assad, TP1, TP2, even TP3 for the most part). We have entered a circle of fear and hesitation that will eventually lead to either implosion from within, or a military invasion of Iran.

The only way that Iran can get out of the current situation is to inflict heavy damage on Israel through the mad-man policy and make it too costly and unviable for them to hit Iran again and again. If we cannot achieve that, expect Israel to keep Iran under pressure until one of those two things happen.

Iran is under a siege now. We are economically sanctioned worse than North Korea, militarily surrounded and attacked, and politically isolated. First and foremost, we must break the military siege on Iran and there's no way out without nukes at this point. IRIAF is outdated and we're even at a risk of invasion from neighboring countries, we do not have IADS, insufficient number of drones and cruise missiles, and most likely insufficient number of MRBMs as well. Only after we have survived militarily, we can focus on breaking out of political isolation. Nobody would take political risks for you if they think you're on the verge of forceful regime change soon. Only then the Iranian economy can flourish.
 
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.


Let's see if they will carry out their threats
 
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.


By being weak and timid during the war, the arabs no longer fear attack by Iran. Bombing a few oil reservoirs would have avoided this happening.
 
Nevsky said:
Not really. Iran during Shah was a US ally or a vassal state, call it as you wish. In terms of the Cold war it was a win situation for Moscow. But in terms of ideology it wasnt. A theocratic state on the borders of the USSR wasnt exactly a dream for the Soviets, but we can say the same for a royal ruling state. So it was a win as long as US lost an ally, that being said, everything else was pretty much the same for us.

But tbh with the start of the 80s our problems were already way too big and deep, the regime in Iran didnt really matter in that time.
Click to expand...

You are seeing things from Russian national perspective and you do not know our mutual history perhaps. I am not against Russia or its people. Russia does what is best for Russia. Iran should do same but IRI System is born to serve others not Iran or Iranians and Russia is one of the biggest beneficiary of these self-immolation policies of IRI.

Here is a list of Iranian grievance against Russia.
  1. Russian attacked and forced Qajar Iran to cede vast lands to Tsarist Russia, including Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Dagestan. None of these are Russian lands, no cultural, religious, genetic similarity. These are still remembered as a symbol of Russian imperial aggression. IRI did not ask for it back when USSR was dissolved.
  2. In 1941, the Soviet Union invaded Iran alongside Britain. After WWII, Moscow refused to leave northern Iran, instead supporting separatist puppet states the Azerbaijan People’s Government and the Mahabad Kurdish Republic (1945–46). Iran’s sovereignty was restored only under intense U.S. and UN pressure and Shahi Irans actions.
  3. The USSR built up the Communists inside Iran as its instrument in Iran, undermining Iranian independence and spreading Soviet ideology inside the country.
  4. The USSR was Saddam’s main weapons supplier/trainer, giving Iraq MiG-21/23/25/29, Su-22/24/25, AD weapons, Scud SRBMS, and MBTs. You name it, Russia gave Baathist Arabs whatever will eventually kill thousands of Iranians. Soviet weapons caused mass Iranian casualties while Moscow ignored Tehran’s appeals for neutrality.
  5. After the USSR’s collapse, Iran purchased MiG-29, MIG-31 and Su-24s, but deliveries were cut in the middle despite Cash being paid, spare parts scarce, and deals constantly delayed. Russia refused to sell MiG-31s, despite Iranian interest, and pocketed Iranian funds without delivering on promises. Rafsanjani's government was fooled by Yeltsin.
  6. In 2007, Iran paid for the S-300 air defense system, but Russia suspended the deal in 2010 under U.S.-Israeli pressure. Iran only received few years later (2016). Its a defensive weapon that even UN would not object to but Russia itself imposed the ban.
  7. Russia has voted for or tolerated UN sanctions against Iran (e.g. in 2010). Moscow has repeatedly used Iran as a bargaining chip with Washington and Europe.
  8. Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones along with its TOT during the Ukraine war. Iran received little in return. Once again, Moscow took Iranian innovation but offered minimal benefit. There is no SU-35S or SU-30SM inside Iran.
  9. Russia has blocked Iranian access to pipeline projects and undercut Iran’s position in global oil and gas markets.
  10. Historically, the USSR armed Iraq and Egypt against Iran. Its now arming Iran’s rivals once again in form of Turkey (A NATO member, PGCC sheikhdoms, Azerbaijan.
  11. For decades, Iran and the USSR had a 50-50 legal agreement over the Caspian Sea. After the USSR collapsed, Russia forced Iran into accepting only a 13–14% share — stripping Tehran of its rightful waters and resources.
  12. The 1921 Russo-Persian Treaty promised respect for Iranian sovereignty. Yet the USSR repeatedly violated it — occupying Iran in 1941 and backing separatist movements in 1945–46.
  13. Russia delayed the Bushehr nuclear power plant for decades, overcharging Iran billions while stalling under Western pressure. A project begun in the 1970s was only completed in 2011, making Iran hostage to Russian engineers and spare parts.
Like I said I have nothing against Russia, I am against my own IRI which is allowing Iran to be looted, exploited by its historical enemies.
 
tsunset said:
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.


Let's see if they will carry out their threats
Click to expand...


These illiterate "Generals" think NPT is still a bargaining chip. His job is to defend Iran but he is talking about politics while military is becoming more and more obsolete.
 
Emirzad said:
These illiterate "Generals" think NPT is still a bargaining chip. His job is to defend Iran but he is talking about politics while military is becoming more and more obsolete.
Click to expand...
Exactly. You can't just leave NPT and think it is a bargaining chip.

If you leave, have a nuclear weapon ready to build in tandem, and build it.

What are they thinking?
 
Immortals said:
Because an F-35 with its RCS you aren’t reliably picking it up till maybe 50KM away assuming no jamming or ECW/EW by the enemy. And Azerbaijan with it’s weak IADS doesn’t have the capability to even know if F-35 came into its airspace.

So you could have F-35 penetrate thru Iraq terrain hugging thru northern iran into Armenia and Azeribajian and release their payloads over the Caspian towards Tehran and its surrounding then leave.
View attachment 144202

Even Patarames claims that Israel was using its stealth drone bomber over Caspian to launch 200KM ranged cruise missiles.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.
Click to expand...

Even male drones ?
 
Immortals said:
Why do you assume the only way that chopper was brought down by bomb or projectile? Do you think if Mossad was going to do such an operation on a world leader they would pick such an obvious tactic? And the ones who did investigation were who? IRGC and its affiliates? Was black box recording ever released?

The facts are 3 helicopters went into the same fog at the same time. And all the other pilots managed to navigate it just fine except the presidents.

Do you also believe that Rafsjani died from a heart attack in his pool?

Do you also believe the port explosion (similar to Beruit) that took place weeks before the war was also human error?
Click to expand...
As I said first all helicopters were not in one line and summit was a slope if the helicopter was 40-50 m to left it would passed the mountain also the helicopter Mr. Raesi was inside had weakest engi e and lowest rate of ascend between the three helicopter
 
To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.


US decision making went from we should try to avoid war to let's bomb anytime because there are no consequences.
 
matty12345 said:
Hey Hack-Hook, when i posted that comment, I also gave a link to the latest IRNA website and till then there was nothing of Pezeshkian otherwise it would have been posted in the official media !!!
Click to expand...
Well we'll i posted it there was another meeting that forget to write and that was with Guteresh .
Iran media as always are lethargic and late to report news
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

  • ... and 4 more.
    • Total: 188 (members: 15, guests: 173)

    Pakistan Defence Latest

    Country Watch Latest

    Latest Posts

    Share this page

    Back
    Top