Who’s in charge in Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina? Anybody's guess
Does Muhammad Yunus, chief adviser to the interim government, have control over the state of affairs in Bangladesh? Are the student coordinators, who led the movement against Hasina resulting in her fall on August 5 and are now part of the government, allowing him to function freely?
Devadeep Purohit
The Telegraph – November 1, 2024
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CRISIS CONTINUED: Bangladesh has rid itself of a troubled past, but is yet to discover a clear path into the future.
Close to 90 days after Sheikh Hasina Wazed fled her country to escape waves of street protest, most Bangladeshis seem to be lost on the way ahead. The transition remains an unclear — often fought over — work in progress.
In this chaos, several tantalising questions have reared their heads, with no clear answer to any and uncomfortable possibilities only adding to the miasma of uncertainty.
Does Muhammad Yunus, chief adviser to the interim government, have control over the state of affairs in Bangladesh? Are the student coordinators, who led the movement against Hasina resulting in her fall on August 5 and are now part of the government, allowing him to function freely? Is the Nobel laureate on the same page with the country’s President, Mohammed Shahabuddin? Does Yunus enjoy the confidence of the army chief, Waker-uz Zaman, and vice-versa?
The interim government had taken charge with the promise of undoing all the misdeeds of the “fascist regime” and charting a new course for the Muslim-majority country of over 175 million people.
As the future of a stable Bangladesh, the fastest-growing economy in South Asia for over a decade, critically hinges on the above questions,
The Telegraph tried to get answers by talking to a cross-section of people — politicians, bureaucrats, journalists, legal experts and ordinary people — over the phone.
Reality bites
The crux of the response: While a majority of Bangladeshis want “yes” to be the answer to all the above questions, the reality is just the opposite.
“There is major confusion on who is running the government.... Is it the chief adviser or the student coordinators who led the movement against Sheikh Hasina, two of whom are in the government?” said Nurul Haq Nur, president of Gono Odhikar Parishad, a fledgling political party that got its registration in early September.
Nur, a former student leader, had shot into prominence in 2018 when he led a movement demanding reforms in the quota system for government jobs. He had played a role even in the anti-quota protests in July that brought down the Hasina regime.
His answers to the above questions, however, indicate that the young politician — like many other Bangladeshis who had hit the streets in support of the students in July — is upset with the state of affairs in Bangladesh, now helmed by Yunus.
“As the chief adviser, Dr Yunus has power.... But is he exercising it? The other question is, can he exercise it?” he said.
A former minister in the Hasina government, now in hiding, told this correspondent that the main problem in today’s Bangladesh is confusion over whether or not the Constitution is in place.
“The basis of running a state is the Constitution.... After the fall of our government, the Supreme Court gave the opinion that an interim government, to be headed by a chief adviser, could be formed. There was a broad consensus that the Constitution would be upheld. But after Yunus and others took oath as advisers, some said that as a revolution had brought them to power, a lot of reforms, including that to the Constitution, are needed,” he said.
According to the former minister, the first assault on the Constitution came within days of Yunus taking charge. There was an attack on the Supreme Court, which had legitimised the Yunus regime, during which all the judges in the appellate division were forced to resign within 24 hours.
“Since then, there has been no rule of law, and mobocracy has become the order in Bangladesh,” he said.
Chaos in command
Unlike the situation between January 2009 and July 2024, when the Awami League enjoyed complete hegemony over politics and administration, today’s Bangladesh has multiple power centres. With their only binding factor being anti-Hasina politics, their ideological and tactical differences are tumbling out in the open quite often.
Yunus and some of his advisers like Adilur Rahman Khan and Syeda Rizwana Hasan, who had been in the NGO sector and are known as civil society moderates, are running the government primarily with the mandate of the coalition of the students who led the revolt against Hasina. The revolutionary coalition of students is not a homogenous group: a section of them has a Jamaat-e-Islami background while the other faction is ideologically inclined to Leftist Islam.
The Jamaat-e-Islami provides the main ideological direction to the government. Jamaat’s former ally but now adversary, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party --- the main Opposition for over 15 years --- may be on the periphery but has significant clout in the administration because of its mass base.
The army, which has tasted power several times in Bangladesh, is another key player in the political landscape of Bangladesh. At the top, at least on paper, is the country’s President, also the supreme commander of the armed forces.
“Because of their background, one cannot expect these forces to work in tandem.... They are working at cross-purposes and the results are evident,” said a Dhaka-based political observer.
As an example, he mentioned the recent debate on removing the President, a demand of the revolutionary coalition of students with the backing of the Jamaat, which the civil society moderates in the government and the BNP didn’t approve of. The timeline for the next election and whether the Awami League will be allowed to take part in it are two other instances of divergence among the ruling cliques.
“Initially, the BNP wanted an election within three months of the change of guard, but the interim government and the students wanted a longer tenure for the interim regime.... The Jamaat came to their rescue and created a three-year-tenure narrative. The army is talking about a one-and-a-half-year timeframe now and the BNP too is keen on polls by the end of 2025,” the observer said.
“The Jamaat and the student leaders are against the idea of allowing the Awami League to take part in the election, but the civil society moderates and a section in the BNP want a reformed Awami League in the polls.”
With a consensus elusive on these issues, regular “brainstorming” sessions have become the order of the day in Dhaka’s power corridors. Experts representing various interest groups are debating a range of issues like a constitutional revamp and reforms to the police and the judiciary.
“The people of Bangladesh want reform, reconciliation and an inclusive election.... Even if there is a need for changes to the Constitution, an elected government should do it,” a businessman said.
“There is no clarity on what this interim government is up to, as they have so many agendas.... They are wasting time on issues that are hardly of any significance to us.”
The businessman said the Yunus regime had spoiled its image by getting drawn into issues like whether Shakib al Hasan should continue to play for Bangladesh and whether the ilish should be exported to India.
“Then, this needless hounding of businessmen, journalists and dissenters and slapping them with cases.... Ordinary people do not believe the charges on which people are getting arrested,” he said.
Fear factor
The former minister in the Hasina cabinet who spoke to this newspaper held Yunus responsible for this extreme expression of revenge in post-August 5 Bangladesh.
“He had said after taking charge of the government that it would go after those who supported the earlier government.... And the country has seen the consequence — a sense of fear in society,” he said.
The refusal of senior editors, some of whom had been vocal critics of the Hasina regime and welcomed the change of guard, to be interviewed by this newspaper was a confirmation of the sense of fear that has gripped Bangladesh.
“This is not the right time to talk,” said a senior leader of the Jatiya Party, a former ally of the Hasina government that has repositioned itself in recent months.
Several common citizens of Bangladesh told this correspondent that people are scared of the hardcore Islamists in the revolutionary coalition of students, who have been forcing teachers, government officials, judges and even doctors to resign.
“The student leaders have become a menace because they think they are a law unto themselves.... The rule of law was better even when we were ruled by Pakistan as there was a space for opposing voices,” said a septuagenarian who had taken part in the Liberation War of 1971 that led to the formation of Bangladesh.
“Earlier this month, when the student leaders planned to remove the President forcibly by mobilising people outside his official residence, the dramatic fall in their popularity was apparent as barely a few hundred people turned up.”
Repeated attempts to reach Md Sarjis Alam and Hasnat Abdullah, two key student leaders, over the phone and via text messages for their comments on the state of affairs in Bangladesh did not yield any result.
Mirza Fakrul Islam Alamgir, secretary-general of the BNP, however, came to the defence of the student leaders. “They are young boys and you have to consider their age,”he said.
He also said: “Dr Yunus is fully in control and has a fantastic working relationship with the other advisers.... The relationship between all arms of the government, the army chief and the President is absolutely fine. There are vested interests trying to malign the regime.”
