I think there is a little too much hype here as to India being able to get Hasina and then keeping her in power for over 15 years.
You cannot have it both ways, as in BD nation removed her and then India being able to impose and sustain her. Well if India was so powerful then how come she was removed from power by the student protests?
Yes India did support her but the BD population by in large went along with her as she was giving "enough" in terms of stability and economic growth till Covid-19 came along.
Without Covid-19 and the Ukraine war, it is very likely that she would still be in power now and rule till 2029 as the economy would still be doing well and giving enough jobs and economic opportunities to make most people overlook her authoritarian tendencies.
In a poor 3rd world country, the average man and woman cares more about their livelihoods than the "rule of law" and it may seem heartless but as long as the repression does not personally affect you or someone you care about, then you are not going to risk much over this. Hasina's repression did not touch enough of the population to make BD nation turn against her rule.
India will by in large deal with any BD government that is not anti-India and so best not to dwell on India's role too much, and just focus on reforming BD and then moving forward.
Economic situation was definitely a catalyst, but is not the only factor. You are saying Hasina's repression didn't touch everyone - that is completely incorrect and completely disconnected from ground reality. Major groups in the society were impacted by Hasina's repression. If anyone was a practicing Muslim (which is a huge group in Bangladeshi society), they were treated as a second class citizen and worse yet harassed with false terrorism charges. Girls were being harassed for wearing hijab even in educational institutions.
Businessmen got extorted to the point many had to sale off everything and move out of the country. Coveted public sector jobs were all being taken away and given to party loyalists. Army was forced to watch as their brightest officers were killed in Peelkhana and they were able to do nothing because of Hasina. How many officers lost their jobs just for questioning Hasina's role in BDR mutiny?
Only opportunists and BAL supporters had it good in the last 15 years.
This was no longer a student protest after July 16, after the first student died. Just look at the casualty list and see how many average civilians without political affiliation including working professionals, BNP, Jamaat, Hefajot, Islami Andolon activists died. It was a mass uprising, not a mere student protest as you have put it. I had friends who are well settled in their career joining in with the students. They had nothing to gain but to see downfall of a dictator. Mir Mugdhdho - one of the well known Martyrs of this revolution already had a well set career as a freelancer. One of the highest rated in Fiverr from Bangladesh. He needn't be in the protest for govt job quota.
And don't underestimate the role of army either, the junior officers forced the army chief and Hasina loyalist generals to not give orders to shoot at people. Had army not done that, she would still be in power and Bangladesh would head towards a civil war within a year or two. Have you seen videos of army officers and soldiers cheering the downfall of Hasina? Have you seen the joy when her picture was taken down? What does that tell you?
It clearly indicates to me a deeper problem that had been brewing over decade than just covid and Russia war related economic downturn. Too bad if you still can't or don't want to see it.
And no, Indian influence is not being over hyped at all. It was a massive Intel failure on their part, that is why you can see them barking everywhere non-stop.
Please don't try to oversimplify things down to economics. That's a narrative Indian media like to use to hide their failure for backing a brutal dictator all these years and now wondering why there was a mass uprising.
