China preparing for 'protracted' war, says think tank

[War Lord]

It is really funny that you mention Afghanistan Now who is running away from Afghanistan after 20 years and trillions of dollars? It is not the Russian? Remember this photo ?View attachment 23659
Russia is not bogged down in fact Russia is thriving with full employment and Russian ruble appreciation There is no shortage of goods in Russian stores. Russia's GDP growth is 3% better than EU countries

https://www.npr.org/2023/12/17/1219882734/russias-economy-is-going-strong-despite-sanctions-from-the-u-s-and-its-allies#:~:text=Weekend%20Edition%20Sunday-,Russia's%20economy%20is%20going%20strong%20despite%20sanctions%20from%20the%20U.S.,with%20the%20Carnegie%20Eurasia%20Center.

PROKOPENKO: That's the one part of the narrative - the Russian economy will collapse immediately. I mean, what do we see now? Economic growth in Russia in 2023 is likely to exceed 3%. It is - in terms of figures, I mean, it's great. It's more than economy of the United Kingdom or of Germans' economy. So what's behind these figures is that over a third of this growth is attributed to the war economy, where defense-related industries are flourishing at double-digit rates. This growth is not what we called, you know, improving people's well-being. It's more about the state spending on war.

I'm not gonna reply much to this stupid troll post that I have already touched upon lightly on my og post which you quoted. Try to stay on topic...

There are no winners in War. Only slightly less losers or total loser.

The US despite it's financial and material loss in Afghanistan didn't lose 10% of the lives Russia has lost so far in Ukraine. And that's what matters.....money can be made, equipment can be made or bought but a capable soldier takes years, if not decades, to make.

Then again, like Russia, China is very keen to lose millions for a small piece of land.

 

[War Lord]

War is indeed costly for Russia, and I can't emphasize just how damaging it is not only for the Russian armed force that Putin spent a fortune trying to build in the last 2 decades but also for their reputation and (perceived) might.

But even if it's true that Russia lost 300-400K, you guys do realize that Russia gained 5-7 million men and women from the conquered territories right? That's a potential base for military recruitment. Not only that, the riches of Ukrainian lands and natural resources will justify such losses, in the long term.

300-400K is small for a population of 142 Million (149 if including citizens of newly occupied Ukraine)

It takes many years to train a proper soldier. 300-400k isn't small for pop. that's already on a decline.

That's 300-400k men who won't have wives, in a country already with more women than men meaning that the pop. rate will continue to fall.

And that's just one side of the coin. Similar, or twice, the number of Russians have left Russia since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The number of wounded men is great too.

All 3 factors, deaths, Russian immigration abroad and amount of wounded men, make the "figure" of "unfit" men a lot more. Unfit for marriage or if in a marriage then it'll be broken tbh especially in Russia.

 

[Pingle]

Do you even know the definition of landlocked? The destroyers we build in A YEAR is equals to ALL the destroyers you have. Wake up and smell the coffee, our navy is second only to the US. Stop having a US sepoy wet dream.

You are unable to operate far from your coast..... you think of entering in IOR or near malacca and challenge IN and USN together without securing your supplies and logistics..... you will be on suicidal mission.....

Firstly in case of full fledged war you won't be even able to cross 3rd Island chains and break the blockade without paying a bloody and costly penalty which has a serious chance of getting defeated actually simply because of state of an art USN, Japanese and Korean, Taiwan naval might together...... after that don't forget there's Indonesia which might try to settle its maritime dispute with China for once and all and after that there's again India and USA together sitting in IOR...... in case of a full scale war every enemy of China will try to settle the score......

You don't even have heavy weight serious allies except Russia (already bogged down in Ukraine), Pakistan, Iran and north Korea who can help you in meaningful ways.......

Just accept the fact China is a landlocked nation with single ocean and only 1 single coast line at the east..... there's a reason you are investing billions on CPEC or OBOR..... but that too depends upon the that time situation hovering over the participants nations.......

 

[War Lord]

China hasn't taken back eveb Kinmen since the Chinese Navy was a joke 30 years ago but not today. Well, i could say US can't even fry fat boy kim till today right? Lolol

We are talking about milions of artillery, hundreds of thousands of missiles, Russia can't even destroy Ukriane with so much pounding, you expect a puny island with neae zero military industrial base to destroy East China. My friend learn math and geography. Taiwan can intercept and China can't? For gods sake, China is a continent sized country. Taiwan will run out of ammunition in a few months. Missiles? Taiwan will run out of parta to even make them, you really think they are aelf sufficient. As i mentioned before, Taiwanese geography is both a blessing and curse, against a weak industrial country, it is a fortress, against an industrial power, it is a starving island. This is a wae of attrition

Like Russia, it's a paper tiger, and still a joke.

 

[War Lord]

You are unable to operate far from your coast..... you think of entering in IOR or near malacca and challenge IN and USN together without securing your supplies and logistics..... you will be on suicidal mission.....

Firstly in case of full fledged war you won't be even able to cross 3rd Island chains and break the blockade without paying a bloody and costly penalty which has a serious chance of getting defeated actually simply because of state of an art USN, Japanese and Korean, Taiwan naval might together...... after that don't forget there's Indonesia which might try to settle its maritime dispute with China for once and all and after that there's again India and USA together sitting in IOR...... in case of a full scale war every enemy of China will try to settle the score......

You don't even have heavy weight serious allies except Russia (already bogged down in Ukraine), Pakistan, Iran and north Korea who can help you in meaningful ways.......

Just accept the fact China is a landlocked nation with single ocean and only 1 single coast line at the east..... there's a reason you are investing billions on CPEC or OBOR..... but that too depends upon the that time situation hovering over the participants nations.......

Exactly.

By the time China breaks through the 1st, 2nd, maybe even the 3rd line (see image below), its naval and air prowess will be totally decimated. It'll be like Japan from WW2.....losing battles far from home until it gets invaded.

USN and allies, of which there are many, will make sure to bleed China. And then when China has weakened, China won't be able to defend its own coast. Much less properly take control of Taiwan.





Allies and Helpers against China:

 

[War Lord]

I am aware of this, yes, weather and geography dictate how China should fight this war. Certainly, a landing in Taiwan is not as easy a task as how PDF Chinese expert talks proposed. In fact I'm aware of this post somewhere you write in the old PDF.

But has it ever tickled your mind, that somewhere there, the Chinese (the PLA war planners of course, not PDF China experts) are actively trying to overwhelm the force and constraint of nature by sheer engineering?

What if the Chinese come up with a 21st-century equivalent of Mehmet ordering ships to be dragged on land? and lay 1000 years of brilliant natural and man-made defense obsolete?

The Chinese war planners have 70+ years to plan for this, and they're not any less aware than you are.

What if instead of short sharp wars, a la Desert Storm, the Chinese opted for a long military campaign that worked to China's advantage? I read a lot of op-eds and news from Western think tanks that China would surrender quickly after the West destroyed the PLAN, the cream of PLA's military modernization (emulating the Germans in WW1). But after seeing that Putin was not overthrown after the large-scale defeat 6 months early into the war, there needs to be questions floated about how realistic such hope is.


Also, you're talking about the technical aspects only, war is complex and it goes down to non-technical issues as well. A long military campaign, enduring years for example, could thin out, not only Taiwan's military infrastructure but also its willingness to fight. I saw a lot of enthusiasm of Ukrainians entering the local territorial defense force early in the war, 2 years later they had to be kidnapped in broad daylight by recruitment officers. The Taiwanese aren't any less human than those Ukrainians.

China can, in a hypothetical scenario, take over Taiwan.

The job of US and other allies of Taiwan will be to make such an Chinese effort obsolete or very costly. So much so that Taiwan can even be freed from Chinese control after a few months or years of Chinese control.

Because by the time China takes full control over Taiwan, anywhere from a couple of months to couple of years after the start of hostilities, it'll have been bled profusely.

Like Ukraine took over its territories from Russia, so can US/Taiwan + allies.

 

[ety]

You are unable to operate far from your coast..... you think of entering in IOR or near malacca and challenge IN and USN together without securing your supplies and logistics..... you will be on suicidal mission.....

Firstly in case of full fledged war you won't be even able to cross 3rd Island chains and break the blockade without paying a bloody and costly penalty which has a serious chance of getting defeated actually simply because of state of an art USN, Japanese and Korean, Taiwan naval might together...... after that don't forget there's Indonesia which might try to settle its maritime dispute with China for once and all and after that there's again India and USA together sitting in IOR...... in case of a full scale war every enemy of China will try to settle the score......

You don't even have heavy weight serious allies except Russia (already bogged down in Ukraine), Pakistan, Iran and north Korea who can help you in meaningful ways.......

Just accept the fact China is a landlocked nation with single ocean and only 1 single coast line at the east..... there's a reason you are investing billions on CPEC or OBOR..... but that too depends upon the that time situation hovering over the participants nations.......

Accept the fact that India is an inferior country that will be totally destroyed by China if you want a full scale war. Stop fantasizing that all Asian countries and the world will be on your side in an all out war with China.

 

[War Lord]

Accept the fact that India is an inferior country that will be totally destroyed by China if you want a full scale war.

You sound like Chairman Meow acting up before it's thrown outside the house by its owner.

 

[ety]

Exactly.

By the time China breaks through the 1st, 2nd, maybe even the 3rd line (see image below), its naval and air prowess will be totally decimated. It'll be like Japan from WW2.....losing battles far from home until it gets invaded.

USN and allies, of which there are many, will make sure to bleed China. And then when China has weakened, China won't be able to defend its own coast. Much less properly take control of Taiwan.

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Allies and Helpers against China:

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And you fanboys and your masters will be destroyed too if they dare to invade or bomb China even if it means involving nukes.

 

[War Lord]

And you fanboys and your masters will be destroyed too if they dare to invade or bomb China even if it means involving nukes.

China will bring about its own destruction, like as usual.

Chinese love killing fellow Chinese, that much is quite evident from reading Chinese history.

Even now you'll be fighting and killing millions of Han Chinese inside Taiwan. Just like good ole times.

 

[ety]

China will bring about its own destruction, like as usual.

Chinese love killing fellow Chinese, that much is quite evident from reading Chinese history.

Even now you'll be fighting and killing millions of Han Chinese inside Taiwan. Just like good ole times.

And you Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis didn't/don't fight yourselves own ? You people blow up yourselves every day now.

 

[Pingle]

Exactly.

By the time China breaks through the 1st, 2nd, maybe even the 3rd line (see image below), its naval and air prowess will be totally decimated. It'll be like Japan from WW2.....losing battles far from home until it gets invaded.

USN and allies, of which there are many, will make sure to bleed China. And then when China has weakened, China won't be able to defend its own coast. Much less properly take control of Taiwan.

View attachment 23687
View attachment 23688
View attachment 23690

Allies and Helpers against China:

View attachment 23689

Exactly bro..... when we show them harsh reality they think we are haters..... nobody is questioning their military prowess but they should also be able to learn the reality how vulnerable China is actually in case of full scale war but like a typical fanboys they keep blabbering carrier killer missiles, decimate Delhi with rockets.... let them first try to cross 3rd Island chains..... a single kill of their AC or Type 55 will bring the entire moral of china down they won't even dare to cross further and challenge enemy in IOR......

 

[Pingle]

Accept the fact that India is an inferior country that will be totally destroyed by China if you want a full scale war.

You can say whatever you want reality is except small border skirmish maximum a kargil level China doesn't have guts to challenge India beyond a limit...... whatever you do on border we are much better prepared than Ukraine and have Himalayas to our advantage..... further you will be sent back with red rear in malacca and IOR......

 

[Raiden]

Firstly in case of full fledged war you won't be even able to cross 3rd Island chains and break the blockade without paying a bloody and costly penalty which has a serious chance of getting defeated actually simply because of state of an art USN, Japanese and Korean, Taiwan naval might together...... after that don't forget there's Indonesia which might try to settle its maritime dispute with China for once and all and after that there's again India and USA together sitting in IOR...... in case of a full scale war every enemy of China will try to settle the score......

That scenario where China manages to unite all Indo-Pacific countries into open warfare with China sounds like a dream come true, and I wish it to come true. But what if they don't?

What if instead of open warfare against all in one go, they pick the ASEAN countries one by one? There's no guarantee that Indonesia would fight China on Taiwan's behalf, the closest countries that will likely go to war with the U.S are Singapore and the Philippines, but even then there's doubt about their willingness. Most likely their contribution will be logistics and refueling station for U.S. Navy ships

 

[ety]

You can say whatever you want reality is except small border skirmish maximum a kargil level China doesn't have guts to challenge India beyond a limit...... whatever you do on border we are much better prepared than Ukraine and have Himalayas to our advantage..... further you will be sent back with red rear in malacca and IOR......

Keep dreaming.