Beijingwalker
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August 8, 2026
This chart shows China's break from the model that built modern Asia.https://lnkd.in/gHRnrqiu Japan built Asia's first export base (first wave), then ceded ground as South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong (second wave) industrialized.
Each economy graduated toward higher-value production as the next took over the labor-intensive work it left behind. Economists call this the "flying geese" pattern of industrial upgrading.
But notice what's happening in the China-led third wave. Its share of global exports has remained near its 2021 peak of 15%...levels none of its predecessors had reached.
In effect, as economists Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian argue in Foreign Affairs Magazine, China is attempting what economic theory says no country should be able to do: retain comparative advantage in almost everything.
The numbers bear this out. Chinese apparel wages average $10,000 a year, five times Bangladesh's, yet China's value-added share of the developing world's low-skill exports has held near 64% for a decade.
Across the developing world, the worry is that China's rise leaves no room for anyone else to industrialize. The United States and Europe helped earlier risers up, China included, by buying their exports and investing in their factories. Beijing is positioned to do the reverse.Image credit: Visual Capitalist
