Rafale fighters and Scorpene submarines for Morocco.. What does the French Prime Minister’s visit to Morocco entail?
Rabat is preparing to receive a high-level French government delegation led by French Prime Minister Sebastien Le Cornu on his first foreign visit since assuming office, and accompanied by a large number of ministers, including the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Interior, in addition to ten other ministers. This visit reflects the increasing importance that Morocco has come to occupy in French foreign policy. It also represents a major station for evaluating the path of rapprochement between the two countries after years of tension.
The visit goes beyond the protocol nature, as it will witness the holding of a high-level government meeting to discuss strategic files that include defense and security cooperation, investment, energy, migration, and artificial intelligence, in addition to the desert file, within the framework of following up on the implementation of the outcomes of the enhanced strategic partnership that was launched following the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Morocco in 2024. It also aims to move bilateral relations from the stage of declaring intentions to the stage of implementing agreements on the ground.
From traditional partnership to strategic alliance
Moroccan-French relations have witnessed remarkable development since Morocco's independence in 1956, as they moved from a stage of French influence to a broad political, economic, and security partnership. For decades, France was considered Morocco's first European partner in the fields of trade, investment, education, and security cooperation. Morocco also represented Paris's gateway to West Africa and an essential partner in the fight against terrorism and irregular migration.
However, these relations went through periods of tension, especially after France reduced the number of visas granted to Moroccan citizens. In recent years, Morocco has also adopted a more independent policy, focusing on diversifying its strategic partnerships with the United States, China, and the Gulf states, which has reduced its traditional dependence on France.
French President Emmanuel Macron's recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over the Moroccan Sahara represented a turning point in bilateral relations, after Paris had been trying for years to maintain a balance in its relations with both Rabat and Algeria. This transformation came in light of regional and international changes, and the decline in opportunities for French-Algerian rapprochement, which prompted France to reformulate its priorities in the region.
Anticipated defense deals
Military cooperation occupies a high position on the visit’s agenda, amid reports of advanced negotiations between the two countries regarding a number of arms deals.
The Royal Moroccan Navy is seeking to acquire two Scorpene-class submarines produced by the French company Naval Group, in a deal that faces competition from Germany, but the growing defense relations between Rabat and Paris may give the French side an advantage. This confidence is based on previous military cooperation, which included the delivery of the multi-mission frigate “Mohamed VI” to the Moroccan Navy.
Negotiations are also underway regarding the purchase of “Rafale F4” fighters, and the deal is likely to include between 12 and 18 aircraft, as part of Morocco’s efforts to modernize its air forces, especially with the delayed delivery of American F-16 fighters, and the continuation of the arms race in North Africa, especially with Algeria’s development of its air and naval capabilities.
Despite talk about these deals, observers confirm that Morocco does not rely on France alone in the field of armaments, but rather follows a policy of diversifying its sources of arms, through cooperation with the United States, Turkey, Spain, and other countries. However, France remains an important partner thanks to its industrial expertise, geographical proximity, and the possibility of expanding cooperation in the areas of training, technology transfer, and defense industries.
Economy and energy...a partnership that goes beyond weapons
Moroccan-French relations are not limited to the military aspect, as France represents one of the most important markets for Moroccan exports, whether in agricultural products, phosphates, fertilizers, fisheries, or the automobile industry, which has become one of the most prominent industrial sectors in Morocco thanks to the Renault factories in Tangier and Stellantis in Kenitra, in addition to a wide network of automobile component factories.
The energy file also occupies an advanced position in the bilateral talks, especially with the increasing European interest in the African-Atlantic gas pipeline project, which connects Nigeria to Morocco, passing through 13 African countries before arriving in Europe.
The cost of the project is about 25 billion dollars, while its capacity reaches about 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which makes it one of the largest energy infrastructure projects in Africa. The project is not limited to gas transportation, but rather aims to transform Morocco into a regional energy center linking Africa to Europe, opening new markets for Nigerian gas, and enhancing European energy security in light of the geopolitical changes imposed by the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.
Observers believe that Moroccan-French relations have entered a new phase based on mutual interests more than traditional considerations. France views Morocco as a stable partner and a gateway to Africa, especially in light of its growing presence within the continent, while Morocco provides great investment opportunities in the automotive, aviation, green hydrogen, renewable energies and infrastructure sectors.
On the security level, cooperation in combating terrorism, organized crime, and irregular migration constitutes one of the most important pillars of the relationship between the two countries, while the rapprochement with Rabat gives France a more influential foothold in North and West Africa, in light of the escalation of international competition for influence within the continent.
A new stage in bilateral relations
The French Prime Minister's visit to Rabat reflects a deeper shift in the nature of relations between the two countries, as Morocco is no longer just a traditional partner of France, but has become a regional actor whose importance is increasing in the issues of security, energy, investment and African influence.
It is expected that the results of this visit will constitute an indication of the future of the Moroccan-French partnership, not only through the agreements that may be signed, but also through the consolidation of a common vision based on strategic interests and mutual respect, at a time when the North Africa and Western Mediterranean region is witnessing rapid geopolitical transformations.