Discussion: Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran

[VCheng]

Possible, but why would they do it in such circumstances? Haniyeh in Tehran as a VIP guest, his death has already greatly damaged the image of Iranian security protocols.

I still think it was outside job but facilitated by insider collaboraters.

I have my opinion, but I will not be sharing that here, sorry.

All I can say is that nothing is permanent in geopolitics. What were assets once can turn into liabilities that need to be shed.

The Iranian security protocols were already shown in a bad light when they shot down their own airliner in their own capital, so even that is nothing new to perceive after this incident. One would have expected some improvements to have been made, after the previous shortcomings were made known, but, apparently not.

 

[SteppeWolff]

Im not a military person but after True promise if I was in charge I would have battle plans ready to cover likely scenarios where the aparthied state crosses a red line and then have those plans implemented quickly for a response.

Iran has let the US put its pieces on the chess board now to mitigate against an Iranian attack making its success less likely than a suprise attack.

If I am in charge I would not rush for a response now, let the genocide allies stay mobilised indefinitely with airlines refusing to fly to Israel and the continued turmoil inside Israel with people wondering when the attack will come. This IMO serves better purpose now and when the timing is right with the response likely to be more successful....bang.

I would likely level mossad HQ as a retaliatory measure.

Just my armchair general 2 cents.

We live in a civilized world and Iran is a civilized country, surprise attack wouldn't have been a good idea and exactly why Iran is taking it's time, engaging diplomatically first before doing the military action. You have to present your case first otherwise doing a surprise attack like this, optics won't be good and you can be showed as an aggressor. Zionists can't be given the opportunity again to act as the one's being oppressed.

 

[SteppeWolff]

All I can say is that nothing is permanent in geopolitics. What were assets once can turn into liabilities that need to be shed.

Yes, but if they needed to get rid of the liability as you say, there are many other better ways for that, they wouldn't have humiliated themselves on purpose.

The Iranian security protocols were already shown in a bad light when they shot down their own airliner in their own capital, so even that is nothing new to perceive after this incident. One would have expected some improvements to have been made, after the previous shortcomings were made known, but, apparently not.

Right on the money, Iranians need to have some serious look at their security protocols, they are riddled with infiltrators.

 

[lightning f57]

We live in a civilized world and Iran is a civilized country, surprise attack wouldn't have been a good idea and exactly why Iran is taking it's time, engaging diplomatically first before doing the military action. You have to present your case first otherwise doing a surprise attack like this, optics won't be good and you can be showed as an aggressor. Zionists can't be given the opportunity again to act as the one's being oppressed.

They have said they will respond at a time of their choosing. Rushing a response now to save face could mean it fails as US, Israel had lots of time to prepare. The attack must happen when it has the greatest chance to succeed, and going massive scale to beat the defences is very risky as well in terms of civilian deaths.

 

[VCheng]

Yes, but if they needed to get rid of the liability as you say, there are many other better ways for that, they wouldn't have humiliated themselves on purpose.

It may have seemed a "better" option to someone, no matter what outsiders might think, so I cannot say anything about your opinion as expressed above.

Right on the money, Iranians need to have some serious look at their security protocols, they are riddled with infiltrators.

May be this is the "new and improved" security version that is still not good enough?

 

[MS Sandhu]

I was watching that idiotic major Gaurav Arya nonsense analysis on this assassnation/ Iran's retaliatory options. He is so stupid and dumb its not funny. I bet you any money India can't take on Israel either. They don't got any weapons, nor the reach, nor the will or the oomph. Indian military is junk! Totally obsolete.

You are under-estimating a thermonuclear & Space Power.
India can easily confront US (defensively) let alone Israel.

 

[jauk]

Projectile? So the Drone/FPV theory is dead. 7kg warhead, short range, can be an ATGM. Still surprised how they were able to get so close considering it was a short range weapon.

@jauk what do you think what kind of weapon was used in the attack?

I believe Tasnim News Agency. It was something shoulder or local man launched. Given the precision and 7lb high explosive load it can be something akin to a straight lazer guided projectile.

An FPV is also an equivalently possible candidate. It’s a ‘projectile’ too.

I find it intuitively unlikely it was a loitering munition. But can’t dismiss it entirely.

None of this matters.

It was yet again a security failure . I’m yet again waiting for accountability.

Note, we’ve yet to hear any accountability for Raisi’s martyrdom.

 

[SteppeWolff]

It was yet again a security failure . I’m yet again waiting for accountability.

Note, we’ve yet to hear any accountability for Raisi’s martyrdom.

And as long as the accountability is missing, we'll keep seeing incidents and internal attacks inside Iran, like this one, unfortunately.

 

[SteppeWolff]

May be this is the "new and improved" security version that is still not good enough?

LMAO

 

[jauk]

Of course. Let every country follow their own national interests. I have absolutely no problem with that at all.

(Labels are merely childish IMO.)

….hollow stream of words as usual. Zero substance…

 

[Falcon29]

Truth be told -- Iran and Hezbollah need to grow a pair. What were they doing this whole time if they're not prepared for a showdown with Israel? Were they prepared for a attack on Iranian nuclear program ? Did Hezbollah ever actually anticipate having a war with Israel or reduced itself to hoping it's weapons arsenal would create a deterrent and they they could take foot off gas and relax ?



Hamas pushed Israel's red lines far back on October 7. In order to help it's allies cross previous red lines. Hamas is trying to show you people stop being afraid of Israel. You have potential to make a change in the region. Do you want to cede another 50-100 years to US/Israel to dominate the region or do you want to finally do something about it ? Hamas sent 2,000 soldiers with the intent to not come back.



Instead of crossing old red lines and regulating Israel to have to face a new reality, where it will need to make concessions, we had Hamas's allies just spectate for the most part and not take the initiative. We also had Arab states and Palestinian Authority spectate, and not capitalize on a opportunity to push for Palestinian statehood.



Now ample time has been provided for Israel to recover, restructure, resupply, and redraw its strategy. It has had enough time to now start testing Iran and Hezbollah and attempt to push them out of the conflict with Gaza. Hezbollah got hit in Beirut and has since done nothing but reduce itself to play support role, which Israel is even going to try to end soon until Hezbollah ceases fire entirely. Once Israel has Gaza alone to itself entirely, it will ethnically cleanse the entire population into Egypt and annex Palestinian territory in West Bank.



And Palestinian cause will die off. Hamas was last hope for Palestinian cause. If Hamas is gone then so is the entirety of Palestine. Anyone who tells you 'resistance' continues with Hamas, is a hypocrite and indecent human being. It does not and will not continue. Hamas has unparalleled popular support in the region and ability to almost mobilize entire region for Gaza's cause. Without Hamas then Hezbollah will forever play defensive role and Iran will keep working towards nuclear weapons.



There are some people here who accept this as a good tradeoff. Assuming that Israel won't go on offensive and respect status quo. When in reality they will start turning eyes towards Lebanon/Syria. Until Irans Hezbollah card is worn out. After which they'd work on a regional alliance against Iran. And with Hamas and Palestine out of the way, it can't be framed as Hamas/Palestine/Resistance vs America/Israel. It will instead be framed as Iranian dominance vs US/Arab/Israeli dominance. Arab governments will not be facing anywhere near the kind of controversy they face right now.

 

[jauk]

As I said, I will wait and see what Iran does to draw this line that you wish to be drawn.

No need to declare your wait and see. But thanks for sharing…

I suggest practicing posting in less complex fora for now. This forum is above your capacities and you come across as not versed.

 

[jauk]

Truth be told -- Iran and Hezbollah need to grow a pair. What were they doing this whole time if they're not prepared for a showdown with Israel? Were they prepared for a attack on Iranian nuclear program ? Did Hezbollah ever actually anticipate having a war with Israel or reduced itself to hoping it's weapons arsenal would create a deterrent and they they could take foot off gas and relax ?



Hamas pushed Israel's red lines far back on October 7. In order to help it's allies cross previous red lines. Hamas is trying to show you people stop being afraid of Israel. You have potential to make a change in the region. Do you want to cede another 50-100 years to US/Israel to dominate the region or do you want to finally do something about it ? Hamas sent 2,000 soldiers with the intent to not come back.



Instead of crossing old red lines and regulating Israel to have to face a new reality, where it will need to make concessions, we had Hamas's allies just spectate for the most part and not take the initiative. We also had Arab states and Palestinian Authority spectate, and not capitalize on a opportunity to push for Palestinian statehood.



Now ample time has been provided for Israel to recover, restructure, resupply, and redraw its strategy. It has had enough time to now start testing Iran and Hezbollah and attempt to push them out of the conflict with Gaza. Hezbollah got hit in Beirut and has since done nothing but reduce itself to play support role, which Israel is even going to try to end soon until Hezbollah ceases fire entirely. Once Israel has Gaza alone to itself entirely, it will ethnically cleanse the entire population into Egypt and annex Palestinian territory in West Bank.



And Palestinian cause will die off. Hamas was last hope for Palestinian cause. If Hamas is gone then so is the entirety of Palestine. Anyone who tells you 'resistance' continues with Hamas, is a hypocrite and indecent human being. It does not and will not continue. Hamas has unparalleled popular support in the region and ability to almost mobilize entire region for Gaza's cause. Without Hamas then Hezbollah will forever play defensive role and Iran will keep working towards nuclear weapons.



There are some people here who accept this as a good tradeoff. Assuming that Israel won't go on offensive and respect status quo. When in reality they will start turning eyes towards Lebanon/Syria. Until Irans Hezbollah card is worn out. After which they'd work on a regional alliance against Iran. And with Hamas and Palestine out of the way, it can't be framed as Hamas/Palestine/Resistance vs America/Israel. It will instead be framed as Iranian dominance vs US/Arab/Israeli dominance. Arab governments will not be facing anywhere near the kind of controversy they face right now.

Irrelevant. They both have ‘pairs’ as big as church bells.

 

[jauk]

جنگ پژوهی giving an exceptional 3D perspective of how easily Haniyeh was accessible:

 

[Falcon29]

Irrelevant. They both have ‘pairs’ as big as church bells.

So where's response to Beirut strike? Having a 'pair' means you will respond despite there being consequences and you will try to match those consequences. Going quiet for five days suggest otherwise.