SilentWatch
Registered Member
- Thread starter
- #121
at @Musings bhai I am genuinely trying to hold a Trade interdiction missions based analytical discussion for PN's hangar boys to go beyond A2/AD in a way that next conflict will provide us an opportunity for - in my view.
this is modelled on the U-boats impact on mercantile trade in WW2, this is is a millitary forum for pak's defense - I am not trying to sink vikrant always.... do not close this thread please.
NO mud slinging PEOPLE ->
THREAD RULES:
1. STOP SINKING VIKRANT always ( will explain why a running vikrant is good for PN )
2. no LOOK at this shit please -> use keyboards for words - remember your inner keyboard worrier that has a brain
3. please think around the concept of "An additional war risk premium (AWRP)" which is an extra charge paid by a shipowner or charterer to maintain insurance coverage when a vessel enters a high-risk zone designated by the Joint War Committee (JWC).
4. READ the OP on Scenario ladder economic vs insured impact at 1 commercial indian suck, ~5 suck and ~10+ sunk -> OR SIGNIFICANT HIT to invoke the force majure clause.
5. India's entire deep-sea cargo fleet is ~120-150 vessels-> I am looking for better data sets here on ship registry and ship's typical routes -> point me to better data, I am tracking ~25-30 indian commercial vessel hulls only so far with limited coverage.
Note Ideal Pak Defense WAR GOAL scenario is 10 ships sunk i.e. 8.3% to 6.7% of ships in the indian COMMERCIAL fleet not MILLITARY.
the average indian commercial ship hull is expected to be "total loss" in baseline of loosing 1 hull in 40-50 years .
SO WHEN: Global CAPITAL MARKETs price 1 indian ship loss in 40-50 years, THEN: A 10 Hull LOSS IN DAYS not decades - business is cruel by design.
Insurance Rates for recovery of 'Risk Capital Insured and LOST' will at best willl take economic time to recover from over years if not decades on Indian import and exports will be affected.
this means the 'Cost of doing business IN India' inflation goes up. now if pakistan again comes out as a globally more delivering military power vis a vie India and the score is PN 10 - x something where x is obviously expected to be lower in commercial + millitary ship SUNK hulls**.
**(indians can copy paste my homework on indian def forum website (like copying our music) if there is one... Given this is a Pak Defense one. My analysis will assume PN does something this time too when in my view BJP India will Modi or after him Yogi will attack pakistan again inevitably so actively or pre-emptively use the Cacus belli we have via IWT crisis and cut india back to size on their arrogance and money).
POTENCIAL UNLOCK economically is that Economic western outsourcing JOBS CAN SHIFT GLOBAL BOARDERS in "12-18 month tech change corporate transformation plans".
this is modelled on the U-boats impact on mercantile trade in WW2, this is is a millitary forum for pak's defense - I am not trying to sink vikrant always.... do not close this thread please.
NO mud slinging PEOPLE ->
THREAD RULES:
1. STOP SINKING VIKRANT always ( will explain why a running vikrant is good for PN )
2. no LOOK at this shit please -> use keyboards for words - remember your inner keyboard worrier that has a brain
3. please think around the concept of "An additional war risk premium (AWRP)" which is an extra charge paid by a shipowner or charterer to maintain insurance coverage when a vessel enters a high-risk zone designated by the Joint War Committee (JWC).
4. READ the OP on Scenario ladder economic vs insured impact at 1 commercial indian suck, ~5 suck and ~10+ sunk -> OR SIGNIFICANT HIT to invoke the force majure clause.
5. India's entire deep-sea cargo fleet is ~120-150 vessels-> I am looking for better data sets here on ship registry and ship's typical routes -> point me to better data, I am tracking ~25-30 indian commercial vessel hulls only so far with limited coverage.
Note Ideal Pak Defense WAR GOAL scenario is 10 ships sunk i.e. 8.3% to 6.7% of ships in the indian COMMERCIAL fleet not MILLITARY.
the average indian commercial ship hull is expected to be "total loss" in baseline of loosing 1 hull in 40-50 years .
SO WHEN: Global CAPITAL MARKETs price 1 indian ship loss in 40-50 years, THEN: A 10 Hull LOSS IN DAYS not decades - business is cruel by design.
Insurance Rates for recovery of 'Risk Capital Insured and LOST' will at best willl take economic time to recover from over years if not decades on Indian import and exports will be affected.
this means the 'Cost of doing business IN India' inflation goes up. now if pakistan again comes out as a globally more delivering military power vis a vie India and the score is PN 10 - x something where x is obviously expected to be lower in commercial + millitary ship SUNK hulls**.
**(indians can copy paste my homework on indian def forum website (like copying our music) if there is one... Given this is a Pak Defense one. My analysis will assume PN does something this time too when in my view BJP India will Modi or after him Yogi will attack pakistan again inevitably so actively or pre-emptively use the Cacus belli we have via IWT crisis and cut india back to size on their arrogance and money).
POTENCIAL UNLOCK economically is that Economic western outsourcing JOBS CAN SHIFT GLOBAL BOARDERS in "12-18 month tech change corporate transformation plans".
Last edited:
torpedo sunk the 
ship -> the idea that the whole 
navy running around to find a submarine to sink - which is:
3 HULLs
submarine in the Indian Ocean 
is a needle 
in the haystack advantage to PNS Hangor boys vs best of western, Russian and 
dung assets will be paradigm braking for economic money manager players people whose job KPI runs on Assets under Management or AUM $s
