Exactly.
Tejas program is dead.
Yes, completely. Died last year. Now it is just a case of how BJP/Modi try and spin this as not a failure.
The 180 off Tejas MK1As on order will obviously never see the light of day and my feeling is IAF even knew about this when placing the order.
Question is what happens next?
114 Rafale possibly ordered?
Go for Tejas MK2 or dump that too and pin all hopes on AMCA?
Rafale buy goes someway to stop the rot but nowhere near enough if their are no Tejas in the picture. These planes should have been delivered 20 years ago and IAF should be inducting 5th Gen by now.
I think we really underestimate the calamity IAF finds itself in.
Just from an attrition point of view they have lost over 21 frontline types (unsure if i can include Tejas as frontline but what the hell) in last 36 months from crashes and combat
4 Rafales
3 Tejas
3 SU-30s
3 Mirage 2000s
3 Jaguars
3 MIG-29s
2 MIG-21
21 frontline planes in 3 years. PAF has lost 4 of all types.
So just to maintain its current size IAF need to be inducting one brand new suadron every 3 years!
Now consider the fact then when the first new Rafales get delivered (and no deal has been signed yet), let us assume in 2030, best case and taking into account 5 years more of attrition IAF will have around
250 SU-30MKIs - 40 years old - no upgrades
100 Jaguars - 60 years old - limited upgrades
50 Mirage 2000 - 50 years old - upgraded
50 MIG-29s - 50 years old - upgraded
In all 450 planes that will need replacing (assuming no SU-30MKI upgrade). Even if they develop and initiate their very own upgrade for the SU-30MKI even HAL is stating 2035 as delivery date for first one.
114 Rafales will not solve this issue. Tejas dead and AMCA timeline will certainly be post 2035 (if at all). $37 Billion to France will eat most of IAF's procurement budget so SU-57 may be unlikely and funds for more AEW/Refullers probably scarce, which of course will hurst the ability to fully exploit the Rafales