India's Nuclear Arsenal Surpasses Pakistan's After 15-20 Years: SIPRI

[Optimal_Control]

I had my own small part in a project where I had suggested a very logical change and was given the India doesn’t have it(Im very sure the fellow in charge who told me this had no effing clue what the advantages or benefits of having that feature were or what it even looks like but he refused to discuss because “I know what it is”…)

Hello @Oscar
Its always nice to have a perspective of how things happen the other side of the fence. Its also strange how innovation is stifled there.

So, mix of many unqualified decision makers in R&D( military) versus SMEs in India - compounded by “If it works it works” attitude keeps MANY capabilities in Pakistan stuck.

But you know babus in and out of uniform - India’s advantage is that ISRO and others have SMEs and most importantly the military cannot overrule them. Here a man with a background in running a ATGM company or Anti-Tank brigade retires and is made head of a department for Cruise missiles research because “Sir I have experience with missiles”… and the rest you can extrapolate.

Actually there two sides of the development process:
(1) The R&D capability of your lab (quality of manpower) to design and develop the actual system, this includes Matlab/Simulink models, various tests.
If you ever visit any top IITs or IISc you'd most likely find a lot of DRDO guys pursuing their Ph.D. and the quality of their work could be established by the fact that they publish their work at some of the prestigious places such as American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) JGCD journal, IEEE transaction of automatic control (ITAC) and so on. For instance, IISc Bangalore is known to produce tons of high-quality literature in guidance and control that regularly gets published at AIAA JGCD. There are many stalwarts in that field in India. I am sure @JamD would know this.
In Pak's case, there are hardly 4-5 universities offering aerospace courses and on the ground they hardly have a presence at AIAA (I am talking strictly about Pakistani universities and not Pakistani students studying abroad). This is an impediment if you want to organically grow your aerospace research.
Unfortunately, there is also a cultural issue in Pakistan, i.e., very few are motivated to pursue "real" research within Pak. One thing that is India's favour is that a lot of Indians have started returning back from US after their Ph.D. (in aerospace) to join industry or academia in India. This has happened because of incentives structure present in India.


(2) Realizing the actual prototype-- this is where the role of SMEs and a whole lot of local eco system is important.
In India's case, back in the 80s, the ecosystem of SMEs and local industry wasnt as developed as it is now and hence they had a limited role to play in the development of the weapon systems and as a consequence of this a lot of sub-systems required in the weapons prototype had to imported from Europe , Russia or USA. But this gradually changed over time as the competency of the local industry increased and now the contribution of the local industry is ever growing in fact, they now have started taking part in the R&D design phase itself.
For instance, I was told by my seniors that when they were developing the cold launch system for Agni-5, they had to design the system capable of launching a 50t missile

with all the gas generator and everything. During this process one of our SMEs from Hyderabad supported the ASL in the design phase that led them to jointly file 5-7 patents. This is the type of synergy that we are witnessing now.

So, a country can effectively develop complex systems if they have decent R&D (by decent I mean competent manpower and leadership) and sufficiently evolved local industry.

 

[Oscar]

Hello @Oscar
Its always nice to have a perspective of how things happen the other side of the fence. Its also strange how innovation is stifled there.

Actually there two sides of the development process:
(1) The R&D capability of your lab (quality of manpower) to design and develop the actual system, this includes Matlab/Simulink models, various tests.
If you ever visit any top IITs or IISc you'd most likely find a lot of DRDO guys pursuing their Ph.D. and the quality of their work could be established by the fact that they publish their work at some of the prestigious places such as American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) JGCD journal, IEEE transaction of automatic control (ITAC) and so on. For instance, IISc Bangalore is known to produce tons of high-quality literature in guidance and control that regularly gets published at AIAA JGCD. There are many stalwarts in that field in India. I am sure @JamD would know this.
In Pak's case, there are hardly 4-5 universities offering aerospace courses and on the ground they hardly have a presence at AIAA (I am talking strictly about Pakistani universities and not Pakistani students studying abroad). This is an impediment if you want to organically grow your aerospace research.
Unfortunately, there is also a cultural issue in Pakistan, i.e., very few are motivated to pursue "real" research within Pak. One thing that is India's favour is that a lot of Indians have started returning back from US after their Ph.D. (in aerospace) to join industry or academia in India. This has happened because of incentives structure present in India.


(2) Realizing the actual prototype-- this is where the role of SMEs and a whole lot of local eco system is important.
In India's case, back in the 80s, the ecosystem of SMEs and local industry wasnt as developed as it is now and hence they had a limited role to play in the development of the weapon systems and as a consequence of this a lot of sub-systems required in the weapons prototype had to imported from Europe , Russia or USA. But this gradually changed over time as the competency of the local industry increased and now the contribution of the local industry is ever growing in fact, they now have started taking part in the R&D design phase itself.
For instance, I was told by my seniors that when they were developing the cold launch system for Agni-5, they had to design the system capable of launching a 50t missile
View attachment 49952
View attachment 49955

with all the gas generator and everything. During this process one of our SMEs from Hyderabad supported the ASL in the design phase that led them to jointly file 5-7 patents. This is the type of synergy that we are witnessing now.

So, a country can effectively develop complex systems if they have decent R&D (by decent I mean competent manpower and leadership) and sufficiently evolved local industry.

quite simply because research in Pakistan is not a valued skill within the majority. There are many pursuing PhDs but when that barely lets you feed your household or not even that WHY pursue it?
It’s maslow’s pyramid in effect here - as simple as that.

India has PhDs coming back , Pakistan has people running out for PhDs or double PhDs not always for sake of research or education but just to leave the rotten system.

At the end, it is a zero sum game in which Pakistani capabilities will be outmatched by India BUT just the possibility of a Pakistani weapon causing damage and associated inevitable environmental and economic fallout will act as the “deterrent”.

Regardless, the Indian focus is not going to be Pakistan despite the rhetoric and political wishes. I keep hinting to Indians to stop thinking in local electoral politics and think 50 years ahead, with population, dwindling resources and everyone competing including neighbors and allies both close to and beyond shores… that is where Indian focus will be.

No more so focused on Pakistan than China… or the United States.

 

[agidest]

India/ Pakistan will never fight again. That bit
$5 trillion key economy say hum (barely a $300 billion economy) nay larrna hae ab?

Your estimation are generous. India is a $4T economy this year. Will likely reach $5T between 2027-28.

 

[agidest]

quite simply because research in Pakistan is not a valued skill within the majority. There are many pursuing PhDs but when that barely lets you feed your household or not even that WHY pursue it?
It’s maslow’s pyramid in effect here - as simple as that.

India has PhDs coming back , Pakistan has people running out for PhDs or double PhDs not always for sake of research or education but just to leave the rotten system.

At the end, it is a zero sum game in which Pakistani capabilities will be outmatched by India BUT just the possibility of a Pakistani weapon causing damage and associated inevitable environmental and economic fallout will act as the “deterrent”.

Regardless, the Indian focus is not going to be Pakistan despite the rhetoric and political wishes. I keep hinting to Indians to stop thinking in local electoral politics and think 50 years ahead, with population, dwindling resources and everyone competing including neighbors and allies both close to and beyond shores… that is where Indian focus will be.

No more so focused on Pakistan than China… or the United States.

You're right but as a whole India is in that zone economically that while it is big, it is not big enough to exert economic gravity. That happened for China when it reached $6T. That was then, that number will probably be closer to $7T in today's values. So about 7-10 years away. That will also then make Indians start thinking bigger and at global scale which is not what comes naturally right now.

 

[Optimal_Control]

You're right but as a whole India is in that zone economically that while it is big, it is not big enough to exert economic gravity. That happened for China when it reached $6T. That was then, that number will probably be closer to $7T in today's values. So about 7-10 years away. That will also then make Indians start thinking bigger and at global scale which is not what comes naturally right now.

Hi @agidest
While some of the points you highlighted are true, I beg to differ on the basis of economic gravity swing. Economically, we are roughly at the same level where China was ~2008 and they reached $6t mark by 2010. In terms of our overall research output, we are roughly at the same level where China was back in 2010. So we are already in that sweet spot to take off. I strongly feel, that migration of higher end MNC jobs, notably in engineering services and core R&D have gathered special momentum during Covid. Initially, it was a means to reduce their expenses but now more and more high tech jobs are coming to India. I could give you two examples that I have personally seen, for instance back in 2020, entire R&D division of Caterpillar responsible for developing navigation and control of Longwall Shearer (underground mining robot) shifted to Chennai from Lunen (Germany). Second example involves a very reputed German MNC that has created an R&D division in India to help them develop advance control strategies for autonomous driving. This div. also files several patents annually in German patent office.

Now, the problem with such job migration is that it doesn't benefit the lowest rungs of society, as you need high skills to be part of such work environment. However, these jobs do end up dramatically increasing the productivity of high-tech work force and eventually leading to ripple effects in economy. You see, a lot of this workforce could rotate between foreign MNCs and Indian companies that are involved in the providing goods and services.
@Oscar

 

[agidest]

Hi @agidest
While some of the points you highlighted are true, I beg to differ on the basis of economic gravity swing. Economically, we are roughly at the same level where China was ~2008 and they reached $6t mark by 2010. In terms of our overall research output, we are roughly at the same level where China was back in 2010. So we are already in that sweet spot to take off. I strongly feel, that migration of higher end MNC jobs, notably in engineering services and core R&D have gathered special momentum during Covid. Initially, it was a means to reduce their expenses but now more and more high tech jobs are coming to India. I could give you two examples that I have personally seen, for instance back in 2020, entire R&D division of Caterpillar responsible for developing navigation and control of Longwall Shearer (underground mining robot) shifted to Chennai from Lunen (Germany). Second example involves a very reputed German MNC that has created an R&D division in India to help them develop advance control strategies for autonomous driving. This div. also files several patents annually in German patent office.

Now, the problem with such job migration is that it doesn't benefit the lowest rungs of society, as you need high skills to be part of such work environment. However, these jobs do end up dramatically increasing the productivity of high-tech work force and eventually leading to ripple effects in economy. You see, a lot of this workforce could rotate between foreign MNCs and Indian companies that are involved in the providing goods and services.
@Oscar

I understand what you're coming from. And what. you said is important. However, the weight of the economy relative to global peers is what drives this gravity.

Right now, only two countries exert it - US and China. Not even Japan/Germany (who are marginally ahead of us right now) have that kind of economic pull. Regardless of the type of jobs in India, unless we reach that absolute size (i.e., ~$7T), we will not exert that kind of global economic force.

 

[Optimal_Control]

I understand what you're coming from. And what. you said is important. However, the weight of the economy relative to global peers is what drives this gravity.

Right now, only two countries exert it - US and China. Not even Japan/Germany (who are marginally ahead of us right now) have that kind of economic pull. Regardless of the type of jobs in India, unless we reach that absolute size (i.e., ~$7T), we will not exert that kind of global economic force.

Hi @agidest
I am afraid you failed to get the gist of what I was trying to highlight. You see, the productivity in an economy is the key to reach $6-7t levels or for that matter any ambitious target! But how do you gauge productivity? Well, in my humble opinion, an economy that is innovative (producing decent amount of intellectual property) and capable of exporting its goods and services can be easily classified as being productive.

What I was alluding to earlier was the fact that the migration of high-tech jobs into India has pumped up "productivity" and this is what will push the economy beyond $6t mark. Of course, a lot needs to be done in manufacturing as well if we are to employ millions of rural workforce. I merely gave few examples from my own personal experience I gained after my years at IITM (such as Cat and others).

 

[suryakiran]

Yes - and you highlighted the most important piece in all of this calculation which I spoke to.

India has a LOT more to loose. Pakistan is a barely viable state - so the impact will be what??

On the other hand, even a few well placed hits can cause a lot more perceptible and longer term damage beyond physical to India’s goals and interests.

However, the Canesterization while reducing the response also lowers Pakistan’s thresholds. Because the one thing holding “sanity” between the two nations was a long standing policy of not mating the warheads to the launch platforms.

If that is also taken out of Pakistan then essentially that advantage to India reduces.

FYI - Canesterization of Pakistani systems has been long “tested” in but for reasons beyond capability and more so to do with leadership pressures and things that go beyond our eyes and into the dark corridors of power - these plans were delayed or shelved outright.

As I mentioned earlier - compromising of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities is done not with practitioners but with leadership.

At the end, there are calculations done by larger powers on what they want the balance between India and Pakistan to be.. even powers seemingly allied with India for now.

Most calculations assume, that India will respond with nukes if nuked. With a vastly superior conventional capabilities it will be not to Indian strategic thinkin to nuke back.

When does Pakistan nuke, what is the red line? If we push into Pak administered Kashmir? If we are within 20 kms of Lahore or on the east bank of Karachi along the Indus? (This btw is what we were trying to achieve in that war game and the attack on Pakistani strategic infrastructure, if you remember our missile plans. No population centres)

Assume we achieve this and Pakistan decides to nuke, the Indian reponse might as well be push deeper into Pakistan to cut it. Not going nuclear. Pakistan then has 2 options, defend or nuke again. If Pakistan decides to nuke again, then rest assured globally it will be in a weak wicket, not to mention multiple powers will get involved and this risk of multiple strikes on Pak formations. Other option is to defend and hope global powers kick in. Indian rationale will be we got nuked, we are not vacating territory.

This ensures our cities are safe, Pakistani cities are safe, India gains territory, increases its global standing by not going nuclear, yet keeping the the economy straight.

In this scenario, the net loser will be the Pak Army. Most assumptions ont his thread are tit for tat. It may not happen. The strength of India, vis a vis Pakistan is its economy and conventional superiority. We will play to our strengths, not Pakistani assumptions.

 

[Nilgiri]

Hi @agidest
I am afraid you failed to get the gist of what I was trying to highlight. You see, the productivity in an economy is the key to reach $6-7t levels or for that matter any ambitious target! But how do you gauge productivity? Well, in my humble opinion, an economy that is innovative (producing decent amount of intellectual property) and capable of exporting its goods and services can be easily classified as being productive.

What I was alluding to earlier was the fact that the migration of high-tech jobs into India has pumped up "productivity" and this is what will push the economy beyond $6t mark. Of course, a lot needs to be done in manufacturing as well if we are to employ millions of rural workforce. I merely gave few examples from my own personal experience I gained after my years at IITM (such as Cat and others).

Yes it is not chicken and the egg situation for debate as much as it may have been in 20th century...cold war era and all (the leg up number of US allies got in say East Asia with market access etc and electronics, digital economy and many sectors were fledgling things compared to now).

Innovation and productivity are required to advance GDP in this day and age and in the context India is currently in.

"Easy" GDP advances (to then fund top tier stuff via that) with capital buy, organise and train for export to finance import have receded overall to begin with. India has work cut out for it here to onshore from say China, that model for the bulk of population base. It involves bringing far more discipline and economic order in North Indian population concentration (in UP + Bihar et al.) to at least say TN level this decade.....and not simply have "just Delhi".....I mean look at all these cities and towns in between Delhi and Kolkata that need to seriously urbanise and industrialise and become proper tier 1 and 2 places....like we see in every vector you can see in TN (Chennai is not the only story).

i.e how to industrialise northern heartland to TN level for starters.

In interim (given those chokepoints in Northern administration + social trust), the optimal route is mostly innovation driven with what India has at its apex and near its apex.....and then improving supply side coefficient transfer to rest of regular economic activity inside India.

 

[Oscar]

Most calculations assume, that India will respond with nukes if nuked. With a vastly superior conventional capabilities it will be not to Indian strategic thinkin to nuke back.

When does Pakistan nuke, what is the red line? If we push into Pak administered Kashmir? If we are within 20 kms of Lahore or on the east bank of Karachi along the Indus? (This btw is what we were trying to achieve in that war game and the attack on Pakistani strategic infrastructure, if you remember our missile plans. No population centres)

Assume we achieve this and Pakistan decides to nuke, the Indian reponse might as well be push deeper into Pakistan to cut it. Not going nuclear. Pakistan then has 2 options, defend or nuke again. If Pakistan decides to nuke again, then rest assured globally it will be in a weak wicket, not to mention multiple powers will get involved and this risk of multiple strikes on Pak formations. Other option is to defend and hope global powers kick in. Indian rationale will be we got nuked, we are not vacating territory.

This ensures our cities are safe, Pakistani cities are safe, India gains territory, increases its global standing by not going nuclear, yet keeping the the economy straight.

In this scenario, the net loser will be the Pak Army. Most assumptions ont his thread are tit for tat. It may not happen. The strength of India, vis a vis Pakistan is its economy and conventional superiority. We will play to our strengths, not Pakistani assumptions.

Assuming the Pakistanis play into theirs it’s everyone’s guess - but as I highlighted earlier - the leadership issue makes this moot.

Speaking of that - a few more weeks until I cave into the 14900KS and then can resume the wargame.

 

[Optimal_Control]

Yes it is not chicken and the egg situation for debate as much as it may have been in 20th century...cold war era and all (the leg up number of US allies got in say East Asia with market access etc and electronics, digital economy and many sectors were fledgling things compared to now).

Innovation and productivity are required to advance GDP in this day and age and in the context India is currently in.

"Easy" GDP advances (to then fund top tier stuff via that) with capital buy, organise and train for export to finance import have receded overall to begin with. India has work cut out for it here to onshore from say China, that model for the bulk of population base. It involves bringing far more discipline and economic order in North Indian population concentration (in UP + Bihar et al.) to at least say TN level this decade.....and not simply have "just Delhi".....I mean look at all these cities and towns in between Delhi and Kolkata that need to seriously urbanise and industrialise and become proper tier 1 and 2 places....like we see in every vector you can see in TN (Chennai is not the only story).

i.e how to industrialise northern heartland to TN level for starters.

In interim (given those chokepoints in Northern administration + social trust), the optimal route is mostly innovation driven with what India has at its apex and near its apex.....and then improving supply side coefficient transfer to rest of regular economic activity inside India.

Yes, I agree, @Nilgiri , after having lived 10 years of my life in TN (first Trichy and then Madras) I strongly feel that most north Indian states (notably UP and Bihar) are at least 15 years behind TN in terms of industrialization and other HDIs. However, other north Indian states such as PB, HP, HR, JK etc have decent per capita (similar to TN), but then their population isnt too large. What I observe is, unlike south India, north has only one industrial cluster i.e., the NCR region. Whereas every south Indian state have their own clusters, for instance TN has Chennai and Coimbatore, Karnataka has bangalore-mysore region, Telangana has hyderabad and so on. These are giant metropolis that provide employment to millions!

 

[Thinking]

You guys are too negative. Who will attack India? There can be skirmishes at best. Only thing that India needs to move at war footing is its economy. Industrialization is a must.

 

[falcon34]

Not as per last tests.

Pakistan mostly focus on tactical bombs, but india mostly focus on bigger bombs. Most of the Indian missiles can carry over one ton payloads

ur a dumb fk, all Shaheen series of missile have above 100 kilo ton yield,
nasr is no longer pursued by the army, nasr is reserved for sensitive sectors, that number won't be above 20-30 warheads.