Iran Foreign Policy and Doctrine

[ShapurII]

Revolution is easy to be said but bitter to be suffered. You can take it easy to say so just because you live abroad. Again, I just hope Iranian people suffer less if revolution comes true.

I never remember Iran has played such a role for China, since Iran has never been so willing to cooperate with China in geopolitics. Iran always take itself as the dominator of the middle east and reject external powers to be a player. Correct me if I'm wrong.

As we discussed above, we did want to invest, but it seemed we were not so welcomed to invest despite there is a contract.

I got your idea. To be frank, isn't it is Iran that lacks long-term vision not to cooperate with China firmly since Islamic Revolution? Dwelling on the West and then what have you got? It is US that keeps sanctioning Iran. Having unrealistic fantasy on the West only results in greater loss.

The status quo is also insufferable for millions of Iranians. Inflation is around 50%-60% while salaries are increased by 20%-40% each year. So, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that people are getting poorer each year and the effect adds up exponentially over the years.

China has no legitimate interest in the Middle East except for energy security. China is not in the Middle East. The Middle East is not China's backyard. In an ideal situation, Iran can fulfill China's energy security and in return, China can let Iran play its role as a regional power and pursue her national interests. The US has had a similar situation with Saudi Arabia since 1970s and the Petro-dollar agreement.

You have been given megaprojects worth tens of billions of dollars but failed to finish them due to sanctions. You decided not to invest in Iran because of US secondary sanctions. Please do not distort the facts. The reason that you are not as welcome as you were before is back you have had a terrible track record of fulfilling the projects you were given and your investments were never significant after the UNSC sanctions.

Iran had a strong cooperation with China from 1983 until circa 2005-2009 where China decided to pass UNSC sanctions against Iran. It was China's choice to ruin the Iran-China relations. Iran, on the other hand, has proven to be a reliable partner, sometimes to a fault, for her allies.

 

[LittleFish]

Our population is only about 3 times larger than Saudi Arabia. That isn't a bad thing since our population is highly educated and trained. In fact, exceptionally well-educated and trained. Saudi Arabia completely lacks that. Also, since salaries in Iran are low, we can easily export our services and products if sanctions are lifted. You, as a Chinese citizen, should know this sort of development plan better than anybody else.

Your population is at least 6-7 times larger than real Saudi population whom I mean is Sunni with Saudi nationality and gets money from Saudi Monarchy. And none would like to work hard if you can earn money by just selling oil, aka the Dutch disease. Developing economy is far more complex than imagination.

The real fight here is US vs. China. Iran is just an isolated bystander here with a tin-pot dictator with delusions of grandiosity, but a bystander that if she joins the US camp, can and will change the situation for China. As I said before, China follows a greedy algorithm to maximize her profits. For all the intelligence that the Chinese have, China lacks a long-term vision. The only country that China seems to be loyal to is perhaps North Korea. Even the Russians find it hard to trust the Chinese because of this and sooner or later, everyone will throw China under the bus. Russia will mend their ties with the US soon and Khamenei's Iran is nearing its end as we know it too.

Russia has never been trusted China, even today Putin is playing China card with Trump asking for a good price.
Joining US camp doesn't mean being hostile to China. Most of our trader partners are in US camp, and so what? As I said, current Iranian regime has never been so willing to cooperate with China in geopolitics, and we don't expect much for a new one.

 

[LittleFish]

it's a political decision not technical issue

Iran was testing advanced implosion designs already in 2009

Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report

Watchdog fears Tehran has key component to put bombs in missiles, the Guardian has learned

www.theguardian.com

Then just detonate right after Soleimani got killed since there was no excuse to hide and tolerate. Once the mushroom raises there will be peace and reputation.

 

[ShapurII]

Your population is at least 6-7 times larger than real Saudi population whom I mean is Sunni with Saudi nationality and gets money from Saudi Monarchy. And none would like to work hard if you can earn money by just selling oil, aka the Dutch disease. Developing economy is far more complex than imagination.

There is no such thing as the real or unreal Saudi population. Saudi Arabia has 33 million people. Iran has 85 million people. That's all that there's to this.
The revenue of selling oil doesn't directly go to the pocket of the people. Where did you get this weird notion from? The Dutch disease isn't even remotely relevant to the situation of today's Iran where minimum salary has reached $140 per month. It takes years for Iran to even reach a point where currency appreciation becomes an issue for our economic development.

Russia has never been trusted China, even today Putin is playing China card with Trump asking for a good price.
Joining US camp doesn't mean being hostile to China. Most of our trader partners are in US camp, and so what? As I said, current Iranian regime has never been so willing to cooperate with China in geopolitics, and we don't expect much for a new one.

Of course. So, you can see how it feels like to be on the other end of the situation.
Saudi Arabia would never freely trade with China if the US imposes restrictions. In any trade war between the US and China, if the US imposes restrictions on trade with China, all countries in the US camp will follow that and abandon you. In fact, this is one of the things that your countrymen feared the most before you reached an agreement with the Trump administration. So, you have to understand that your trade with those partners in the US camp is conditional to your relations with the US. And if some day shit hits the fan, and it probably will some day, all those countries will abandon you. Not because they're hostile to you, but because they are in a camp that opposes you.

 

[LittleFish]

China has no legitimate interest in the Middle East except for energy security. China is not in the Middle East. The Middle East is not China's backyard. In an ideal situation, Iran can fulfill China's energy security and in return, China can let Iran play its role as a regional power and pursue her national interests. The US has had a similar situation with Saudi Arabia since 1970s and the Petro-dollar agreement.

No country is able solely to secure our need, so our resolution is to diversify the source. And again, its pointless to discuss "China let or not", since we never had such influent on IRI. Every decision was made by yourself.

You have been given megaprojects worth tens of billions of dollars but failed to finish them due to sanctions. You decided not to invest in Iran because of US secondary sanctions. Please do not distort the facts. The reason that you are not as welcome as you were before is back you have had a terrible track record of fulfilling the projects you were given and your investments were never significant after the UNSC sanctions.

I'd appreciate if you could name some for me.

Iran had a strong cooperation with China from 1983 until circa 2005-2009 where China decided to pass UNSC sanctions against Iran. It was China's choice to ruin the Iran-China relations. Iran, on the other hand, has proven to be a reliable partner, sometimes to a fault, for her allies.

I could not remember there is a strong cooperation between China and IRI apart from yelling "Down to America" together, supporting Palestine and some arm deals during the time you mentioned. Iran has never welcomed China to play a bigger role in Middle East. Again, I'd appreciate if you could name some for me.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Inflation is around 50%-60% while

inflation was 35% in February

 

[Persian Gulf]

Then just detonate right after Soleimani got killed since there was no excuse to hide and tolerate. Once the mushroom raises there will be peace and reputation.

it is not that easy. you need to enrich the uranium then miniaturise it. this takes time and must somehow be done away from IAEA cameras.

 

[ShapurII]

No country is able solely to secure our need, so our resolution is to diversify the source. And again, its pointless to discuss "China let or not", since we never had such influent on IRI. Every decision was made by yourself.

I'd appreciate if you could name some for me.

I could not remember there is a strong cooperation between China and IRI apart from yelling "Down to America" together, supporting Palestine and some arm deals during the time you mentioned. Iran has never welcomed China to play a bigger role in Middle East. Again, I'd appreciate if you could name some for me.

You said that Iran didn't want foreign countries to meddle in the region. I explained to you why that isn't an issue as the US and Saudi Arabia have been able to handle that for decades. If China was seriously interested, I showed you the solution. You cannot diversity strategic partnership. You can diversify your sources, but not your partnerships, particularly when your vision is different from most of the world.

Sure. Let's see, off the top of my head:
1. You failed to finish the Tehran-Shomal expressway.
2. You left the Tehran metro without completing it.
3. You failed to meet your legal obligation under the JCPOA to help us redesign the IR-40 reactor.
4. You failed to even start your work at the Chabahar Port and abandoned it for Gwajar.
5. You failed to do anything in the South-Pars gas field, costing us billions of dollars in lost revenue each year.
Do I need to say more? Many of these projects were worth several billions of dollars and they were given to you.

inflation was 35% in February

That's bullshit number that the central bank of Iran publishes by tossing a dice or something. Rent has gone up by 80%. Food has gone up by 60%. 50%-60% is still optimistic. The real inflation in Tehran is over 70%. If you want to loan money in Bazaar, they will charge you 6% interest rate if they are fair and not "nozool khor".

 

[LittleFish]

There is no such thing as the real or unreal Saudi population. Saudi Arabia has 33 million people. Iran has 85 million people. That's all that there's to this.
The revenue of selling oil doesn't directly go to the pocket of the people. Where did you get this weird notion from? The Dutch disease isn't even remotely relevant to the situation of today's Iran where minimum salary has reached $140 per month. It takes years for Iran to even reach a point where currency appreciation becomes an issue for our economic development.

Only 44% of the 33 million population has Saudi population, and it will be less countering out the Shias. The sterotype of "Saudis are rich" only applies for real Saudis, not all the 33 million population. Non-Saudi workers and Shias are not so much richer than average Iranian.
Catching the Dutch disease doesn't need to be rich, i.e. Argentina.
The revenue of selling oil doesn't directly go to the pocket of the people? Okay you will get a Shah's iran 2.0, most of the revenue goes to the pocket of elites and foreign companies, and get toppled by the next Khomeini, which history has proven.

 

[LittleFish]

Of course. So, you can see how it feels like to be on the other end of the situation.
Saudi Arabia would never freely trade with China if the US imposes restrictions. In any trade war between the US and China, if the US imposes restrictions on trade with China, all countries in the US camp will follow that and abandon you. In fact, this is one of the things that your countrymen feared the most before you reached an agreement with the Trump administration. So, you have to understand that your trade with those partners in the US camp is conditional to your relations with the US. And if some day shit hits the fan, and it probably will some day, all those countries will abandon you. Not because they're hostile to you, but because they are in a camp that opposes you.

So why didn't Trump do so? Because Trump is so kind? If GCC are so obedient to US, then why they created the oil crisis in 70s which hurt the West so much?

 

[Persian Gulf]

That's bullshit number that the central bank of Iran publishes by tossing a dice or something. Rent has gone up by 80%. Food has gone up by 60%. 50%-60% is still optimistic. The real inflation in Tehran is over 70%. If you want to loan money in Bazaar, they will charge you 6% interest rate if they are fair and not "nozool khor".

it's quite complicated to measure this on an annual rolling basis, you cannot do it based on your feelings

35-40% is corroborated by Central Bank, IMF, World Bank, etc and even reported in terrorist opposition media. no reason to really doubt it

 

[ShapurII]

Only 44% of the 33 million population has Saudi population, and it will be less countering out the Shias. The sterotype of "Saudis are rich" only applies for real Saudis, not all the 33 million population. Non-Saudi workers and Shias are not so much richer than average Iranian.
Catching the Dutch disease doesn't need to be rich, i.e. Argentina.
The revenue of selling oil doesn't directly go to the pocket of the people? Okay you will get a Shah's iran 2.0, most of the revenue goes to the pocket of elites and foreign companies, and get toppled by the next Khomeini, which history has proven.

Nobody said anything about Saudis being rich. Saudis have a GINI coefficient of around 46. Far from ideal. That's a strawman fallacy.

Rich is different from currency appreciation. Please read carefully. The situation in Iran has been so bad lately that currency appreciation won't be a factor in a long time.

The Shah's Iran was the world's 11th largest economy by GDP right after it was toppled, performing a lot better than even today's Saudi Arabia. There were a multitude of factors that led to the 1979 revolution, but Islam and leftist ideas played a huge role. It wasn't the economy that caused the 1979 revolution.

 

[LittleFish]

it is not that easy. you need to enrich the uranium then miniaturise it. this takes time and must somehow be done away from IAEA cameras.

So it was not only a political problem.

 

[Persian Gulf]

So it was not only a political problem.

your definition is can they say 'lets make nuke this second' and if answer is it takes more than 1 day then it's a technical problem not a political problem?

what kind of logic is this

there are zero technical obstacles, just time needed to implement the political decision.

 

[ShapurII]

So why didn't Trump do so? Because Trump is so kind? If GCC are so obedient to US, then why they created the oil crisis in 70s which hurt the West so much?

They created the oil crisis in 70s over the issue of Palestine. You don't see Arabs supporting the rights of the Palestinians or resorting to using oil as a weapon again, do you? You don't seem to be very familiar with the history of the Middle East.
Trump is a loud fool that fucks up and then retreats. He tried to fight with the whole world and take on Europe and China at the same time. His plans backfired terribly. But the US is coming for you one way or another. If you think Trump is an isolated anomaly in the US foreign policy, you are wrong. The US-China future conflict is a bi-partisan issue in my opinion.

it's quite complicated to measure this on an annual rolling basis, you cannot do it based on your feelings

35-40% is corroborated by Central Bank, IMF, World Bank, etc and even reported in terrorist opposition media. no reason to really doubt it

IMF and World Bank estimates rely mostly on officially published figures. They have been unable to even ballpark Iran's GDP for years. The only thing in Iran that hasn't raised less than 40% is fuel price, and that's because the regime wants to feed smugglers. Opposition media have cited figures over 80%. Where do you get the idea that they agree with the 35%-40% figure?