Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[جوبا]

Not near AlAqsa but near Tel Aviv and other Jew populated area and I am not suggesting to use it actually but present it as deterent.

TelAviv is barely 60kms from Jerusalem, its a tiny country in terms of width

 

[Pak-Warrior]

Good post and points.

I am also suspecting Iran may do a surprise missile attack to take out US military aircraft sitting like ducks in airfields across the middle east ,especially the Muffawaq airbase In Jordan. this is just a hypothetical idea pls (disclaimer- i want and love peace in the world amd dont advocatefor violence)- Iranian planners may decide to initiate a strike on US aircraft parked en mass in the open air when no/few US troops are nearby, so human collateral is less when the aircrafts are struck by missiles. US taking time to get its military posture fully in place is a vulnerability that the Iranian military could exploit.

After 12 days war, Ideally Iran should have tried and transported some short range missiles to a secret underground facility in Iraq for future conflicts (Provided if they have strong allies over there). If they had planned and had such a base then it could have caused real blow against that Jordanian airbase now. It would have been an element of surprise. Plus Iran could just put the blame on local militias, if it don't want to looked like doing those strikes.

But I think they don't have any such short range missiles base in Iraq otherwise now is a golden opportunity to use it. Since Qasem solemani they are unable to plan things aggressively. Trump killed Solemani because he was a good strategist of IRGC.

 

[Shags101]

A dirty bomb near AlAqsa? what are you even suggesting

dude you know when people talk about using nuclear weapons or say even a “dirty bomb” on Israel they don’t actually think hey millions of Muslims dead with the Jewish inhabitants I agree nations of the region should go nuclear but only as a deterrent not to be actually used on anyone it’s like the Cold War MAD everyone gets Fubar if one country or the other uses it so no one uses it

 

[ToddE]

Those were warning shots. I'm sure nobody in the Iranian military, or Houthis, is stupid enough to think they can target US carriers with single shots.

Iran's only chance of actually damaging a USN protected asset is by overwhelming their air defenses first. Something that hasn't been tried before.

Strike comprised of following can get through the AD shield of ships:

- Persian Gulf or Zolfaghar-Basir (EO guided AShBM) (700 KM)
- Fattah-1 hypersonic N version (1600 KM)
- Abu-Mahdi AShCM (1000 KM)
- Shahed-238 Turbojet drones or Karrar drones (can reach 0.8 Mach)

 

[جوبا]

dude you know when people talk about using nuclear weapons or say even a “dirty bomb” on Israel they don’t actually think hey millions of Muslims dead with the Jewish inhabitants I agree nations of the region should go nuclear but only as a deterrent not to be actually used on anyone it’s like the Cold War MAD everyone gets Fubar if one country or the other uses it so no one uses it

using a nuke is not a deterrent- building it is a deterrent, the moment you use its MAD

 

[ShapurII]

Strike comprised of following can get through the AD shield of ships:

- Persian Gulf or Zolfaghar-Basir (EO guided AShBM) (700 KM)
- Fattah-1 hypersonic N version (1600 KM)
- Abu-Mahdi AShCM (1000 KM)
- Shahed-238 Turbojet drones or Karrar drones (can reach 0.8 Mach)

We need to increase the range of Persian Gulf and Abu-Mahdi missiles. The USN will most likely stay out of the range of our anti-ship missiles.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

Forgive my ignorance, but do guidance systems of these anti ship missiles depend on coastal radars or are they heat seeking or how do they work?

Here's how typical Antiship missiles like C802s, harpoons, exocets works. The radars / sensors (on ground, ship or aircrafts) detects enemy warship location, their direction and their speed. The missile is fired at approximate location where the target would be once the missile has covered the distance. During the last phase, the missile itself is carrying active radar which can track a target emitting signals or emissions or both. These missiles are effective in ranges of upto 300 kms.

Enemy can evade these missiles with combination of various techniques:
- Change course immediately as the missile launch is detected timely (americans can detect launches immediately)
- Use long range / medium range air defense missiles to intercept.
- Use EW / Jamming to jam incoming missile radar
- and finally point defense missiles / CIWS / Chaffs / Flares.

The newer and longer range Antiship missiles (targeting at above 500 km ranges) must include mid-course correction (that is possible with real time picture of battlespace and advance sensors and space capabilities). American carrier group is moving around 1000 Km from Iranian coast.

 

[Shags101]

using a nuke is not a deterrent- building it is a deterrent, the moment you use its MAD

Yeah that’s what I said only idiots would actually use a nuclear weapon if another country actually has the same weapons and Israel has multiple methods of delivery

 

[جوبا]

Strike comprised of following can get through the AD shield of ships:

- Persian Gulf or Zolfaghar-Basir (EO guided AShBM) (700 KM)
- Fattah-1 hypersonic N version (1600 KM)
- Abu-Mahdi AShCM (1000 KM)
- Shahed-238 Turbojet drones or Karrar drones (can reach 0.8 Mach)

Other than the Fattah 1, the CVN is deployed beyond the range of the other 3 so the assumption that you can overwhelm the C-RAM with Shaheds wont really work.
If you take into account the multiple KC135s deployed to the region we can say that the CVN would probably operate out of range of the Fattah too causing losing a few tankers and jets is acceptable compared to the CVN

 

[ShapurII]

Other than the Fattah 1, the CVN is deployed beyond the range of the other 3 so the assumption that you can overwhelm the C-RAM with Shaheds wont really work.
If you take into account the multiple KC135s deployed to the region we can say that the CVN would probably operate out of range of the Fattah too causing losing a few tankers and jets is acceptable compared to the CVN

The range of Shahed-238 can be extended up to 2,500 km though.
But Iran probably doesn't have enough Shahed-136 or Shahed-238 drones. At least, that's what it seemed like during the 12-day war.

 

[Mehdipersian]

The USN successfully countered Iranian origin anti-ship missiles during the attacks on Yemen ( with hindsight a good workout against Iranian origin systems ).

Has Iran addressed the problems of why they were so ineffective against the USN, can Iran be sure that their own systems will be more successful ?

Each American destroyer has 90 defensive missiles and CWIS systems, and the number of defensive missiles in a fleet is very large. The Yemenis could not get past their defenses by firing 3-4 missiles, but they forced the fleet to retreat.

If Iran wanted to fire, it would fire hundreds of missiles/drones at the same time.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Strike comprised of following can get through the AD shield of ships:

- Persian Gulf or Zolfaghar-Basir (EO guided AShBM) (700 KM)
- Fattah-1 hypersonic N version (1600 KM)
- Abu-Mahdi AShCM (1000 KM)
- Shahed-238 Turbojet drones or Karrar drones (can reach 0.8 Mach)

Does Fattah-1(or any other long range ballistic missile that they want to throw at the USN) have terminal guidance to direct itself towards a ship? A missile based solely in CEP is not going to hit much of value. We saw this in the war with Israel, and that was against static targets with known locations at the time.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

Does Fattah-1(or any other long range ballistic missile that they want to throw at the USN) have terminal guidance to direct itself towards a ship? A missile based solely in CEP is not going to hit much of value. We saw this in the war with Israel, and that was against static targets with known locations at the time.

Terminal guidance shouldn't be a big issue with seeker onboard. Real challenge is midcourse correction.

and yeah hitting a target moving at 60 km/hr and 1000 kilometers away is FAR more difficult and challenging than a static fix ground target.

 

[ShapurII]

Does Fattah-1(or any other long range ballistic missile that they want to throw at the USN) have terminal guidance to direct itself towards a ship? A missile based solely in CEP is not going to hit much of value. We saw this in the war with Israel, and that was against static targets with known locations at the time.

Persian Gulf missile and Baseer both have EO sensors for the terminal phase.
I don't think Fattah-1 can target an aircraft carrier, but aircraft carriers are really slow moving objects with predictable path in a short span of time (3-5 minutes).

You're talking about something that weighs 110,000 tons and its top speed is barely 60 km/h. It would take minutes for such a huge vessel to change course in a meaningful way.

 

[Aryobarzan]

Amongst all the news about war and revolution a new cultural phenomena (Renaissance) is occuring in Iran which is entirely organic...Iranians who have lost relatives in the massacre of this January do not bury their dead in the "Islamic" fashion..they do not call them "Shaheed" they call them (Javeed nam) meaning "eternal name" ..they do not veil but they dance in the funerals..all of this to convey the message that they hold "islam" responsible for the calamity that has befallen on their nation by the islamic republic..This cultural "Renaissance" is spreading fast amongst the population and has been noticed by the BBC in the following clip...