Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Yasser76]

You need to remember the circumstances behind that operation. We learned a lot from that operation. Lessons that were not repeated during Shield / Storm.

Sure, I get that, Iran has also learned lessons from fighting then fighting US, Iraq, Israel and of course studied Afghanistan closely. Awkward fact is the enemy can learn too, and going by the last few weeks Iran seems to be the one that has surprised many.

No room for complacency but right now this whole thing is an utter disaster for the US, it still has the chance to get better or turn into a complete and utter blood bath for American. Thankfully it has not come to that.

 

[SecularNationalist]

Still not enough, logistics will be hell, death toll will be very high. FPV drones changed warfare, it will be way worse than Afghanistan and Iraq.

Plus more than 600K Iran troops waiting for them.

 

[ShapurII]

Still not enough, logistics will be hell, death toll will be very high. FPV drones changed warfare, it will be way worse than Afghanistan and Iraq.

It's not enough for creating a buffer zone in the south of Iran, but it is more than enough to invade and hold a couple of small Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has extremely limited ability for transporting our troops to defend those islands. We don't have an air force. We don't have a navy. Unfortunately, 70K is enough to invade a couple of Iranian islands. We can't "teleport" people unfortunately.

 

[Oscar]

I don’t doubt US can take the island. They likely will by sheer overwhelming firepower. It’s holding the Island that I don’t think is likely.

I also think the propaganda on the island has gotten way out of hand. Iran can always redirect oil flows to other terminals like Jask, which was built as an alternative.

Kharags benefits has always been convience for VLCC in the shallow waters of the PG. however, everyone and their mom acts like the oil is actually extracted there. It’s not an oil field. This overstatement can end up causing a let down when once captured the supposed benefits don’t show up.

People act like Iran is the Death Star and Kharg is the critical design flaw that blows up the entire country. It doesn’t work that way.

I don’t think that is the overall impression in military circles but it does provide a “Taiwan” of sorts if the US military gets really entrenched and unless they get into the days of Desert Shield and enforce a no-fly - no movement zone over Souther Iran even good old artillery could potentially reach the Island.

 

[Immortals]

Still not enough, logistics will be hell, death toll will be very high. FPV drones changed warfare, it will be way worse than Afghanistan and Iraq.

How are they gonna get them food/water?

Remember when Russia overextended in Ukraine and forgot to build its logistical lines. Troops were running out of food and robbing grocery stores and gas stations were being used for fuel.

 

[SecularNationalist]

New Angle

Well looks like the missile missed it. Though a close call.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

What number do you think that would take?

During the war in Vietnam, the average weekly number of US KIA was approximately 1100. There was no move to impeach Johnson and later Nixon.

Vietnam had no major influence on Energy and stock market. Totally not comparable.

 

[omegalamba7xl9]

For an attack on Iran
1. 100k Kurdish and other like
minded group.
2. At least 150k US troops already pre deployed in position with proper air cover...
3. Gulf/Israel providing another 500k ready to go status.
4. Nato coming in with further 150k to 200k troops.
5. Either China or Russia need to be on board.
Now you looking at an invading force of
100k kurdish + 200US + 500Arab ISREAL + 200Nato = million man army, now we can start to think of possiblity.
Even with that few things are lost already.
1. Surprise factor
2. Point of entry for execution
3. Iraq totally subdued or surpries element.
4. Air superiority and total domination of the skies
5. Pakistan totally subdued via India or on board.
6. Turkey on board along with entire NATO.
7. China nuteral or at least the supply line cut off, which is not.
8. A center of gravity that is willing to ciptulate or at least Saddam/Qadafi style execution.
9. If Gaza didn't happen because of that US and Israel lost the image that they held a decade ago.
10. Iranian's have shown no fear at all.
To late for any ground invasion

 

[Aggregate]

The real suprise might come from the East

Though I do not agree with what you are insinuating, at all ... but way to find a loophole around the rules, to bring up Pakistan into the topic

 

[Watandar]

They can be super humans for all I care. 5K is not enough to invade and hold an Iranian island.

They could be enough to hold the 3 islands that UAE and Iran have a dispute over. Then US builds up more forces and threatens that either open the Strait or lose Kharg Island.

 

[ShapurII]

What number do you think that would take?

During the war in Vietnam, the average weekly number of US KIA was approximately 1100. There was no move to impeach Johnson and later Nixon.

Did Johnson and Nixon say stuff like this?

 

[Immortals]

I don’t think that is the overall impression in military circles but it does provide a “Taiwan” of sorts if the US military gets really entrenched and unless they get into the days of Desert Shield and enforce a no-fly - no movement zone over Souther Iran even good old artillery could potentially reach the Island.

My concern is that how’s being presented to Trump by his inner circle of clowns. Also you can find quotes by Trump during the 1980s about Kharg island during the Iran-Iraq war where he is saying US should capture it to punish Iran for the hostage crisis. The thought of Kharg Island has already been cemented in his brain for decades.

And I think in this administration Pentagon generals don’t have permission to speak freely for fear of their careers.

Kharg island is being sold as a propaganda victory for Trump.

 

[ShapurII]

For an attack on Iran
1. 100k Kurdish and other like
minded group.

I stopped reading after this line lol Hilarious.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

I don't think so. The American politics is very much party-dependent. The Republicans are not going to switch over to the Democrats easily. The Dems are just too weird for most of them. They need stronger reasons for that to happen. Body bags are very convincing though.


Again, you can lose one third of the Senate. So, Trump can be impeached and will be impeached in that case.

There are 53 Republicans in the Senate today. Of those, 22 are up for reelection. Of the 45 Democrats (there are 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats), 13 are up for reelection.

If the President is impeached, it takes 67 Senators to vote for removal. That means the Democrats would need to retain their 13 seats, they would also need to flip 20 Republican seats and hope the two independents vote with them.

 

[lightning f57]

don't overestimate them either. Anyways these will make good targets for Iranians

They come with allot of equipment and airpower which would shame some countries. So you might have 10-15k troops holding Kharg but at what cost?

Right now you have 2 carrier battle groups, over 200 planes from US and Israel constantly attacking Iran, there is plenty of firepower but Iran has not stopped fighting back. Any forces on Kharg will be highly vulnerable and become Irans focus of attack. Iran also is likely planning suprise.

So trump replaced the supreme leader with a younger more hawkish version and he did not stop fighting, does he really think taking Kharg will magically open the SOH. If anything more oil off the market = higher prices and Iran hasa higher tolerance for pain than the US.

So I see failure either way.

Best move is to agree a no nuke deal, offer repriations ( he could get gulfies to pay after all they are his personal bank), sign a no aggression pact and agree a phased withdrawal of sanctions based on mutual confidence measures which should be set out do they are easy to achieve.