Watandar
Elite Member
It benefits from fractured countries like Syria and Lebanon and would prefer Iran destabilized rather than just denuclearized.
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They aim for chaos, not just denuclearization.
At this point, what can Iran do to get the upper hand in this conflict?
Unlike some members of the Iranian diaspora, I don't think that changing the regime would be enough for Israel. They are clearly aiming for one of two outcomes:
a. endless, paralyzing civil war or
b. fragmentation of the country
In my opinion, their ideal situation would be a regime change along with balkanization of the Iranian territory.
What - besides building the bomb - could Iran do to avoid these scenarios (realistically)?
Tactically Iran can improve its missiles and refill the arsenals and payrolls of its allies in Yemen, Lebanon and elsewhere. That strategy will probably work for another 5 years.
Strategically, they need more friends. I think Iran should overhaul its foreign policy with a 10 to 15 year goal of creating strategic depth in its neighborhood meaning it starts wooing Turkey, Pakistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and even Afghanistan, burying past mistakes and grievances and starting afresh.
They also need some way to either get out of the economic sanctions or to neutralize them using third parties. Armenia has been the main sanctions buster for Russia, why not for Iran too ?
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