Good points.
Can I just say this loudly now on pdf?
If Iran's missiles were ineffective and "not accurate " (accuracy matters, but deadliness matters way more)as a few active posters said during and after the operation True promise 2, then why the he'll would US assemble a large partof its military arsenal against Iran, to take put its ballistic missiles ,which it is unprepared to handle the fall out of a potential war with US?
My only conclusion is that Iran's missiles performed so well in the last exchanges Iran had with Israel, that US and israel are willing to risk losing a war with Iran in front of the world, just to try to neutralize the power of Iran's missiles.
This is confirmation that Iran's proof of concept related to its military doctrine heavily relying on missiles is valid and deadly for its enemies. The know-how cant be removed and neither can all the locations of missiles in Iran be destroyed. Us didnt even find all of saddams Scuds in the initial phase of the Iraq war,and saddam had a crude arsenal of missiles and a much smaller country to hide them than Iran.
The 12 day war showed us Israel had vulnerabilities. Interception rated started going down around day 10 due to multiple factors like interceptor shortages but also higher quality of Iranian missiles being thrown into the mix. At around day 10 Iran was firing off smaller but high quality missile barrages that were accurately hitting some targets.
It doesn't mean US and Israel would lose a war. But it means Israel has a vulnerability where it has to conserve some of those interceptors for their most important infrastructure while expose some infrastructure that is also important. Their interception rate was going to get lower and lower day by day. And a daily occurrence of 1-3 targets being hit a day in Tel Aviv and Haifa a day that goes on for one month is something that isn't good for Israel's security image and sense of security among their population. Particularly sense of security in their capital, Tel Aviv (ik they claim Jerusalem but it's Tel Aviv thats their economic bastion).
I wouldn't get comfortable though. They've collected lots of data during that war and are going to apply some 'patches' to these systems.
But the biggest development is the US pouring money to build larger quantities of Patriot/Thaad systems to deploy. That is not good for Iran as they have much better economies of scale and industrial capacity. And the US will do anything for Israel.
The 'fix' is deploying many more such batteries in and around Israel. And I don't believe it will take two years. If China/Russia don't provide assistance to Iran to help them create industrial capacity+ financial means to build many more missiles, then it will become more difficult to overwhelm that defensive shield around Israel. Leading Iran to have to decide whether to make risky maneuver of targeting nearby Arab states which are more within range of varying weapons systems.
It was a bad idea to agree to ceasefire after 12 days, imo. It's only good in sense that there is still some remaining mystery to Iran's true capabilities. But Israel wasn't made vulnerable enough. A few more days and interception rate could have gone down to 30-40%. At that point there is loss of confidence in Israeli defensive capabilities forcing them to take more time to enhance that defensive multi layered system. Buying Iran lots of time. It only would have took another 100-200 missiles spread out over 6-7 days.
Doesn't mean US will seek war. It won't especially as it has no pretext right now and midterms are coming up. It may just unleash Israel on Iran again for another two week skirmish to further weaken Iran. A large undertaking/war won't be waged at all by the US until closer to end of Trump's term, imo.
Iran appears more alert and prepared for round 2, which might explain why Israel hasn't pulled the trigger yet. Target acquisition is not there yet.
It serves Iran to continue on state of high alert and disconnect internet. As much as that sucks for Iranian people.
There are too many defensive systems pouring into the region. And Iran's airspace is vulnerable.
I'm not sure a pre-emptive strike would help Iran besides doing damage in Tel Aviv and frightening Israelis. Israel wouldn't respond immediately but may respond a few days later. US would be slightly embarrassed and not jump in right away but would intercept Iranian missiles. It would basically embarrass them and throw off their calculations.
But then Iranians would be on edge and awaiting Israeli + potential US response. And US will get snarky in negotiations.
If Iranians can endure a week of being on edge, and buildup to a war, they should preemptively strike Israel to throw matters out of sync.
But if they're gonna be terrified and frantically awaiting next US-Israeli steps + prematurely expose military assets/processes in place for potential war, then it's not worth it for them.
