Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds


The USA military power with multiple carriers is already 10 times more powerful than UK+France combined(I don't include Germany since their navy doesn't even have 1 Aircraft Carrier), so Iran shouldn't worry about fighting all of NATO since the USA is NATO, and Turkey as a Muslim power would sit one out, so I think Iran should bomb that Cyprus NATO base with IRBMs if necessary to take out that air base so UK F-35s can't operate out of that base.
 
If hezbollah is still not potent, then why did Israel sign a fake ceasefire with lebanon and hezbollah (because it couldn't defeat hzb)only to start bombing hzb and south Lebanon after the ceasefire till now?

You might be mistaking hezbollah's silence for weakness, I am not making that mistake. Hzb did so much damage to israel in that war, and israel is still recovering from that beating and Iran's OP TP2- look at rhe like in suicide rates and protests in their army and cities.

But the war been in a continuum.....just changes form, ao Iran can and will continue its destruction of vital Israeli targets and infrastructure that are critical to the state of israel functioning. Is eilat port back open after houthis shut it down? Northern Israel is not built back or fully repopulated, the confidence in the idf is not strong, because 🇮🇱 didnt defeat any enemy after all those clashes and deaths and destruction + costs it received and paid.
Hmm.... No, I do not think they remain a potent force at this point. They're facing a lot of challenges preventing them from making a meaningful recovery. Read this excerpt, not to say it's true, some people argue the opposite that Iran gave Hezbollah freedom to operate and it was Hezbollah that outlined its strategy, but that's not the point. The point is being too risk adverse led to producing less effective strategies that the AoR is paying for to this day.... Hamas wanted Hezbollah to exercise option #2 around time (shortly after) Israel began a ground invasion of Gaza:

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Hezbollah’s Military Options

From a purely military perspective, if Hezbollah had the freedom to take action separate from the influence of Iran, and if it inherently believed in its mission to defeat Israel, it could have opted for far more effective strategies than the one it used on Oct. 8. It had at least three options.

The first option, which is the most escalatory, is to invade the Galilee with the best-trained Hezbollah fighters and sow even greater chaos and panic across Israel. Under that scenario, Hezbollah had a strategic opportunity to launch a Blitzkrieg-style offensive, which could have posed an acute security threat to Israel. This possibility had concerned Israeli defense planners since 2000, when Hassan Nasrallah first alluded to the prospect of a ground incursion by Hezbollah forces.

The second option
, which is less escalatory than the first, is to launch a high volume of more lethal and precise missiles against urban and strategic targets inside Israel and, as a result, make it a lot more difficult for the Israeli military to effectively prosecute two fronts—one against Hezbollah, and one against Hamas.

The third option, which is the least escalatory, is to adopt a primarily defensive posture, remaining within Lebanese territory and refraining from opening an additional front against Israel. Hezbollah would only support Hamas politically.

However, in the end, Hezbollah opted for the least effective military strategy: a limited war of attrition it could not even sustain, one that would provoke the Israeli government just enough to badly hurt the group.

Hezbollah’s Oct. 8 response to Israel’s war against Hamas was consistent with Iranian wishes. Doing nothing was not an option for Iran because Hamas is a key player in the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.” But at the same time, Iran wanted to avoid escalation with Israel, which is why it arguably constrained Hezbollah’s military activity. The great irony is that by doing that and seeking to preserve Hezbollah’s alleged deterrent against Israel, Iran ended up significantly harming its Lebanese ally.
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This is why I was calling for Hezbollah to participate in May 2021 skirmish alongside Hamas, because that long vacation from fighting Israel was not going to lead to good things for the group when it came to the struggle with Israel. Israel was not taking a vacation. It was heavily targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure and supply line in Syria and simulating attack plans on Lebanon, which it can afford to do, unlike Hezbollah and Hamas which have to put their systems and processes to test, in order to make any performance assessment.
 
Hmm.... No, I do not think they remain a potent force at this point. They're facing a lot of challenges preventing them from making a meaningful recovery. Read this excerpt, not to say it's true, some people argue the opposite that Iran gave Hezbollah freedom to operate and it was Hezbollah that outlined its strategy, but that's not the point. The point is being too risk adverse led to producing less effective strategies that the AoR is paying for to this day.... Hamas wanted Hezbollah to exercise option #2 around time (shortly after) Israel began a ground invasion of Gaza:

..
..
Hezbollah’s Military Options

From a purely military perspective, if Hezbollah had the freedom to take action separate from the influence of Iran, and if it inherently believed in its mission to defeat Israel, it could have opted for far more effective strategies than the one it used on Oct. 8. It had at least three options.

The first option, which is the most escalatory, is to invade the Galilee with the best-trained Hezbollah fighters and sow even greater chaos and panic across Israel. Under that scenario, Hezbollah had a strategic opportunity to launch a Blitzkrieg-style offensive, which could have posed an acute security threat to Israel. This possibility had concerned Israeli defense planners since 2000, when Hassan Nasrallah first alluded to the prospect of a ground incursion by Hezbollah forces.

The second option, which is less escalatory than the first, is to launch a high volume of more lethal and precise missiles against urban and strategic targets inside Israel and, as a result, make it a lot more difficult for the Israeli military to effectively prosecute two fronts—one against Hezbollah, and one against Hamas.

The third option, which is the least escalatory, is to adopt a primarily defensive posture, remaining within Lebanese territory and refraining from opening an additional front against Israel. Hezbollah would only support Hamas politically.

However, in the end, Hezbollah opted for the least effective military strategy: a limited war of attrition it could not even sustain, one that would provoke the Israeli government just enough to badly hurt the group.

Hezbollah’s Oct. 8 response to Israel’s war against Hamas was consistent with Iranian wishes. Doing nothing was not an option for Iran because Hamas is a key player in the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance.” But at the same time, Iran wanted to avoid escalation with Israel, which is why it arguably constrained Hezbollah’s military activity. The great irony is that by doing that and seeking to preserve Hezbollah’s alleged deterrent against Israel, Iran ended up significantly harming its Lebanese ally.
..
..

...
...

This is why I was calling for Hezbollah to participate in May 2021 skirmish alongside Hamas, because that long vacation from fighting Israel was not going to lead to good things for the group when it came to the struggle with Israel. Israel was not taking a vacation. It was heavily targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure and supply line in Syria and simulating attack plans on Lebanon, which it can afford to do, unlike Hezbollah and Hamas which have to put their systems and processes to test, in order to make any performance assessment.
What it means for Iran:


Iran’s survival​

With that in mind, some members of Hezbollah may view the survival of the Iranian government as existential and push them to attack the US’s most fervent regional ally, Israel.

“The only scenario in which [Hezbollah may attack Israel] is if there is a genuine, clear and present existential danger to the very survival of the Iranian regime and if the Iranian regime orders all its regional proxies to go all in,” Bitar said. “Otherwise, I think Hezbollah is most likely to stay out of it.”

Salamey said that only a “dramatic external shock” like a regional war including Iran would draw in the group. Otherwise, any response “would likely require a clear crossing of red lines that directly threaten Hezbollah’s core survival, not symbolic or tactical losses.”

Still, he said, “any response would likely be limited, calibrated, and asymmetric, aimed at signalling relevance rather than triggering full-scale war. Hezbollah currently lacks the strategic confidence, logistical depth, and political cover needed for broad escalation.”
 
The US is walking on cold feet because Iran will cross lines the US doesn't want them to, due to the existential nature of any upcoming conflict with Iran. Iran and Iran-aligned militias in Iraq would strike at Bahrain/Qatar/UAE + Jordan + Israel. They don't have an alternative.

Iran is not in the USA's backyard. Months of threats won't cause entire Iranian leadership to jump ship to US side and stage essentially a coup against their own leader.

This is a minimum 1-3 month long commitment for the US which Trump administration is not prepared for. Partially also because US leadership protects Israel with more missile batteries than for our own soldiers/bases in the Middle East. CENTCOM knows the US forces are more vulnerable to attacks than Israel is.

There is no credible 'one and done' pathway for the USA when it comes to Iran. Iran is more prepared to attack international shipping routes/energy supply than it is in protecting it's Western border from Israel. Previously Syra/Iraq were acting as buffer against Israeli strike.

Iran is most vulnerable to another Israeli attack from the West. That is the least risky endeavor for US and allies but Israel currently lacks a justification to go to war with Iran. The Israeli population would also not be okay with it. And Israel would have to be able to persuade the US to commit to a regime change war, which it is likely reluctant to do so.

Thus, only explanation for US deployment in the region is a kind of defensive one, maybe allies were spooked developments in Iran would result in Iranian regime lashing out at region. It's also for the US to collect data/observe Iranian military and government to better assess whatever military options they're presenting to Trump, particularly how well they can absorb an Iranian response.

It appears that at the moment they simply don't know how this plays out. Iran cutting off internet is playing a big part in this. Their assets on ground probably are having trouble communicating or collecting information. Iran being in hyper-alert state and also having an eye on the sea with drone flights and utilizing whatever early warning methods are also complicating whatever US is considering doing

The US is not going to commit in a big way to war in the region. Not with the Ukraine conflict and focus on China. It probably sought to create some Arab NATO + Israeli alliance to tackle Iranian threat together down the road, but Arabs were not receptive to this and Gaza Genocide most certainly killed any such possibility of that happening.

This means US would take on most of the burden of this war, and US + American people are not interested in that. I see de-escalation occurring over the weeks, unless Iran really drops its guard.
 
Iran is simply too large and many of its capabilities fortified enough to be able to do a 'one and done' blitzkrieg from the air like can be done in Gaza or Lebanon

The only possibility of US strike is US doing something highly escalatory like targeting Iranian navy + capabilities of Iran located on Iran's coast. An attempt to severely weaken Iranian regime + allow an Israel attack on Iran's BM capabilities from the Western direction. Leaving Iranian military + government in shock, and try to push for momentum towards a regime change.

That could wrong if not successful enough, at which Israel + other US allies in region will not make any commitments to the US, leaving the US in awkward position of having to back down or double down and commit to a last second chaotic plan on ground with allies for regime change that wouldn't play out well

Simply put there are no good military options as they won't bring about desired political objectives for those strike options
 
Israel, on other hand, sees this as opportunity of lifetime to make regime change in Iran. They believe the current conditions are best they could have ever asked for. And if US is unwilling to embark on regime change adventure now, then it won't ever do so.

Israel's capacity to act in Iran is limited. Iran will seek to build an extensive missile capability to more effectively counter-strike in future skirmishes with Israel. If Israel can't stop that, Iran will have thousands more missiles in a few years that can reach Israel.

That would be considered as an existential threat to Israel as it would limit Israeli freedom of action over Iran simply because of mutual deterrence. Then Iran could attempt to rebuild nuclear program at some point and it would have to breakout and seek nuclear weapons. Or at the minimum a may more risk tolerant nuclear threshold status
 
This could also be a trap for Iran by causing estrangement between Iran and China, with the false hope of investing in Iran, but putting sanctions back on for whatever reason they wish, like they've done before, whereby Iran is then left with nobody to sell its oil to! Iran should be able to decide whoever they wish to sell their oil.

If we go by the assumption that Larijani-IRGC-Reformists are executing a slow coup then they will do anything to cripple the system including war. They siphoned off the trade revenues from Bank Merkazi otherwise where did the money go? if you remember it happened during Rohani/Zarif era as well. The inflation is artificially induced. Soleimani is gone or burnt from inside, dozens of other ideological Islamist/principalist generals and scientists are gone or retired. Khamenei is 87, conservatives lost the election, their last President and FM were killed. Any war will result in completion of coup.
 
Why? I thought the plot is Iran unites with China(BRICS) to replace the USD with RMB?

My worldview has always been about BRICS replacing the USA because I don't like Trump and the racist White Men ruling USA, so from my perspective I'd like to see the USA fall/collapse or descend into Civil War as payback for all the bombs they supplied to Israel killing many Palestinians and all the civvies their military killed since long ago.

BRICS is benign. IRI-Russia-PRC seem to be inclined towards a semi-block of their own. IRI-Russia post 2020 seem have strengthened their military relations a bit more. Russia has thrown IRI under the bus on atleast 6-7 times before so distrust is there. IRI and China have dozens of billion USD worth trade which is increasing. In 2010 it was 1/15 of what it is now.
 
Jews are angry that Trump hasn't attacked yet, some of the new Epstein documents will probably be released again.
View attachment 177206

Trump Can pull the reverse uno by secretly asking IRI to openly say that Trump is being blackmailed by Israel because he did some borderline legal age girls on Epstein island.
 
When a missile is launched from Iran, how many obstacles does it face on its way to Israel?

Obstacles from Iran to Israel:

1. American military ships in the Persian Gulf
2. Israeli radars in Azerbaijan
3. Israeli radars in Turkmenistan
4. Air defense systems of American bases in Iraq
5. Air defense of the American base in Syria
6. American radars in Saudi Arabia
7. Radars in Qatar
8. Radars in Iraq
9. Radars in Kuwait
10. Radars in the UAE
11. Radars in Bahrain
12. British radar in Oman
13. NATO radar systems in Turkey
14. Jordanian air defense
15. American fighter jets in the skies over Jordan
16. American fighter jets in the skies over Israel
17. British fighter jets in the skies over Jordan
18. British fighter jets in Israel
19. French fighter jets in the skies over Jordan
20. French fighter jets in the skies over Israel
21. Air defense of American ships in the Red Sea
22. American ships in the Mediterranean Sea
23. British air bases in the region

After entering Israeli airspace:

24. Ultra-modern American TPY-2 radar
25. Ultra-modern American THAAD missile defense system
26. Israeli Arrow 1 and 2 missile defense system
27. "David's Sling"
28. "Iron Dome"

In fact, Iranian missiles overcome the most extensive, expensive, advanced, and dense air and missile defense system in the world and still strike Israel.

WMN

Great post.

I have problems with IRI the government and the whole meanignless stance against Israel+US but IRGCASF is something we can be proud of atleast. The toughest of them all which is why US-Israel wants them gone.

I do hope the post-IRI system sustains them. They are to IRI what IIAF was to Shahi Iran.
 
China gets its oil from Iran so of course China will ignore this and threaten to stop 100% all Rare Earths to USA if they impose more tariffs on China for trading with Iran. China will be willing to go to war if their oil supply from Iran is blocked by US Navy, so this is assured.
I originally didn't want to participate in this discussion, but there are too many people on this forum spreading misinformation about China for their own purposes.

1. China does import oil from Iran, but the data differs significantly from what some Iranians here are claiming.
In recent years, Russia has consistently been China's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for approximately 17.5%-19.5% of China's total imports. It has never reached 20%. Saudi Arabia ranks second.
In recent years, China's oil imports from Iran have mainly been conducted through transit trade via third countries. Currently, the largest transit country is Malaysia. Malaysia is also a transit country for China-Venezuela oil trade. That is, the China-Malaysia oil trade data (according to Chinese official data) actually equals the sum of oil trade between China and Iran, Venezuela, and Malaysia. In 2025, China-Malaysia oil trade accounted for 11.9% of China's total imports, ranking third. This data cannot be broken down to show Iran's data separately.

2. The price of oil supplied by Iran to China. The quality and delivery methods of crude oil vary greatly among countries. Using China's CIF price as a benchmark, Russian crude oil has the lowest price, usually $5-10/barrel lower than the international benchmark price. Crude oil supplied to China from other Middle Eastern countries is based on the international benchmark price. Crude oil from some countries like Brazil has different quality and therefore a higher price.
The price China actually pays for Iranian oil is lower than the international benchmark price, but higher than the price of Russian crude oil.

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In 2025, China's total crude oil imports were 557.73 million tons. The average daily import volume was approximately 11.55 million barrels/day.
=============================================

1. The primary purpose of China's current crude oil imports is strategic reserves, not actual consumption. That is, the vast majority of crude oil imported by China is being stored and not put into consumptive use.

2. China has been undergoing a capacity transformation for many years, with the proportion of crude oil converted into chemical products gradually increasing, while the proportion converted into refined oil products is gradually decreasing. Currently, China's refined oil conversion and consumption rate is already below 50% and continues to decline.
 
4,000 seems high but it is indeed a lot, I know some of them personally in the UK. nice people, of course. mostly on useless masters programs trying to find ways to stay long enough to get residency rights etc.
It is an official figure claimed by Golpaygani, head of the organization for "Enjoining the Good and Forbidding the Evil" (lols at the name)
 

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